• Brandon recounts writing “Bitcoin and the Rhythms of History” in 2020 as a way to make sense of crisis-era dynamics and institutional decay
• Iran’s currency collapse is used as a real-time case study of how money failure fractures society, accelerates protests, and destroys savings
• The discussion frames the current moment as a “global” Fourth Turning, with synchronized instability, populism, and regime stress across regions
• Venezuela’s turmoil is interpreted through power vacuums, geopolitics, and resource incentives, alongside a skeptical take on nation-building efficacy
• California’s proposed “Billionaire Tax Act” is treated as a Fourth Turning signal: broken social contract, rising resentment, and a property-rights flashpoint
• The “supply vs demand of order” model is explained as a way to understand volatility when institutions cannot meet public demand for stability
• Generational archetypes are reviewed (Prophet, Nomad, Hero, Artist) as broad-strokes heuristics for how cohorts behave in crisis and rebuilding phases
• Bitcoin is positioned as “Fourth Turning money” and a new institution that replaces discretionary trust with protocol-enforced rules (“rules without rulers”)
• Energy and industrial capacity are discussed as strategic constraints, with AI/data centers shifting the public energy debate away from Bitcoin mining

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• Bitcoin holds around ~$90K as Brady and John frame the current range as a “higher floor” era with potential upside catalysts still intact
• “Healthy hopium” segment compares Bitcoin adoption to the internet’s S-curve and revisits how skeptics routinely dismiss exponential technologies
• Discussion of long-horizon Bitcoin returns using a “wealth table” framing: short-term noise, long-term trend clarity
• Lynn Alden’s view: recent selloff lows may hold as liquidity conditions improve and excess “Bitcoin treasury company” activity gets washed out
• ETF adoption story accelerates: Morgan Stanley launches branded Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, notably skipping Ethereum
• Bank of America/Merrill opens advisor access to multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs with a framed 1–4% allocation for suitable clients
• ETF flows remain resilient: outflows are modest relative to the drawdown, suggesting a stickier, longer-term holder base
• Macro/politics: Supreme Court tariff case is approaching a decision, with markets likely reacting in a messy, sector-specific way rather than a clean “tariffs on/off” binary
• Housing policy: Trump floats MBS buying to compress mortgage spreads and proposes restricting institutional purchases of single-family homes, with questions on feasibility and real impact
• Defense policy whiplash: conflicting announcements trigger sharp moves in defense stocks, highlighting policy-driven volatility risk

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• The group frames 2025 as a “crab market” year that forced a psychological reset: ETFs, institutional interest, and political tailwinds can coexist with long sideways price action
• Brandon’s Bitcoin moment of 2025 is “Bitcoin becoming boring,” arguing that social and political resistance has faded, with zero “Bitcoin obituaries” as a symbolic indicator
• John’s Bitcoin moment of 2025 is the US Bitcoin strategic reserve executive action as a long-arc legitimacy milestone, even if it didn’t catalyze price immediately
• Overhyped 2025 narratives include the strategic reserve as a near-term price catalyst, DOGE-style government “waste cleanup,” and the idea that “hundreds of MicroStrategy clones” would rapidly scale
• Quietly important 2025 developments include older coins distributing to new holders, steady growth in non-leveraged corporate treasury adoption, and “sticky” wealth-platform channel dynamics (Vanguard and broader advisory adoption)
• Cultural moments highlighted include “Paper Bitcoin Summer” and the “Great Creatine Awakening,” with a forecast that “four-year cycle is dead” memes will dominate once a new all-time high arrives
• “Bitcoin-adjacent circus” talk shifts to crypto-friendly legislative/regulatory theatrics and a 2026 concern: prediction markets and “trade everything” pushing 24/7 speculation into equities and daily life
• The most embarrassing fiat moments center on obvious government fraud and the contradictions of central banking narratives (including officials critiquing “intrinsic value” while managing fiat debasement) and symbolic milestones like phasing out the penny
• “Main character” is debated: the group leans toward the idea that leaderlessness is a feature, but names surface including Larry Fink as the high-impact mainstream convert, with long-odds speculation about future political and tech megaphone figures

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• Brady and John open by owning missed 2025 price targets, framing the year as a sideways-to-down “crab market” around the high-$80Ks
• They unpack why “Bitcoin clicking” for the world happens far slower than new believers expect, even with ETFs and a pro-Bitcoin political backdrop
• The show marks the HODL meme’s origin (GameKyuubi’s “I AM HODLING” post) and uses it to reinforce long-horizon discipline BitcoinTalk+1
• They revisit Michael Saylor’s 2013 “Bitcoin days are numbered” tweet as a case study in changing your mind (commonly dated Dec 19, 2013) CryptoPotato
• Macro recap includes a cooler-than-expected CPI print (with caveats about data quality) and what it could mean for Fed cuts and liquidity
• Fiscal commentary highlights “victory laps” over still-massive deficits and why the debt train likely only slows, not stops
• They critique the idea of pushing 100% stock ownership as a policy goal, arguing it structurally advantages existing asset holders via compounding
• A Jeff Gundlach clip anchors the “patience is alpha” idea: long-horizon winners often look wrong early, forcing managers to churn BitcoinTalk
• They compare gold’s strong year to Bitcoin’s lag, noting ETF flows (IBIT) remain heavy despite negative YTD performance and debating “sell vs buy” interpretations
• Quick hits include an options-market “covered call yield” theory for capped rallies, and an update on Samourai Wallet clemency chatter as a privacy battleground

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• Bitcoin chops around ~$90k after a brief move toward ~$94k, highlighting a “flat net” year vs late-2024 levels
• Brady revisits a long-running thesis: institutions, corporates, and nation-states may be dampening the classic four-year boom/bust cycle
• Matthew Sigel (via Bernstein) is cited arguing for an elongated cycle, limited ETF outflows during a ~30% correction, and higher long-range price targets
• The show contrasts Bitcoin and gold narratives, using a long-cycle framework to discuss “debasement trade” environments and why hard assets can rotate vs equities
• The Fed’s latest moves are framed as balance-sheet expansion via “reserve management purchases” of T-bills—QE-by-another-name and “money printing,” even if not labeled QE
• A Supreme Court case is discussed regarding presidential removal authority of federal officials, and why the Fed is viewed as a politically sensitive “special case”
• Michael Saylor posts a cryptic “guess the bank” photo (identified by viewers as JPMorgan HQ), fueling speculation about warming big-bank relationships
• BitGo receives conditional OCC approval to convert to a national trust bank, emphasizing 100% reserves and nationwide digital-asset custody authority
• Do Kwon is sentenced (15 years) for the Terra/Luna collapse; the hosts discuss “orange-washing” and how Bitcoin branding can be used to legitimize scams
• Satoshi’s final public post anniversary is noted as a core “feature” of Bitcoin—no founder, no leader, no centralized rule-changes—followed by a Swan product and services overview

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• Contrast between today’s macro backdrop and the 2021 Bitcoin peak, with tighter liquidity, higher rates, and far stronger structural support for Bitcoin
• Cory’s base case: no classic 80% “crypto winter” drawdowns anymore and a strong chance of new all-time highs in 2026
• John’s “yearly lows” chart framing: rising annual Bitcoin floors as proof of real accumulation and diminishing panic selling
• Larry Fink, Harvard, sovereign wealth funds, and major banks (BofA, Vanguard, Schwab, Citi) as long-term Bitcoin buyers, not momentum tourists
• Discussion of CFTC-approved spot Bitcoin trading on designated contract markets as another on-ramp for pensions and endowments
• Big critique of prediction markets and “scambling” (scam + gambling) as an extractive, nihilistic, fiat-era attempt to financialize everything
• Cory and John argue that crypto casinos, meme coins, and prediction markets are a giant gambling funnel that ultimately pushes people toward Bitcoin’s seriousness
• Bitcoin and energy: riffing on Elon Musk and Jensen Huang’s comments about Bitcoin turning stranded or excess energy into a universal monetary battery
• MicroStrategy’s new USD reserve is framed as a cosmetics move to soothe institutions and make their Stretch preferreds more attractive, not a change in core strategy
• Cory pushes back on “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” de-banking narratives, distinguishing between true systemic exclusion and individual risky accounts being dropped

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• Jeff Booth explains why Bitcoin is the foundation for the world’s first true free market—one that naturally trends toward deflation and abundance
• Argues that existing fiat systems must inflate due to debt dynamics, guaranteeing increasing centralization, surveillance, and coercion
• Dissects Elon Musk’s claim that money will become irrelevant—agreeing only if humanity transitions to a Bitcoin-based system with privacy layers
• Shows why AI and robotics accelerate deflation in a free market, but cause chaos and inequality inside fiat systems
• Breaks down why housing, healthcare, and education prices rise despite technological efficiency: money printing, not real scarcity
• Helps new Bitcoiners understand price volatility and why they must build conviction through deep study—don’t just “trust”
• Explains Bitcoin’s resilience and the importance of decentralization, self-custody, nodes, and privacy technologies like Fedimint and Cashu
• Highlights El Salvador as a real-world example of choosing a Bitcoin-based free-market path
• Discusses long-term security concerns (quantum, government attacks) and why open protocols evolve faster than threats
• Reframes Bitcoin as a civilizational protocol upgrade, not a trade—and encourages ignoring fiat pricing entirely

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

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• Brady joins from Bitcoin Amsterdam and reports extremely positive conference sentiment despite Bitcoin’s price consolidating around $95–105K
• Hosts discuss how price often disconnects from fundamentals and why Bitcoin’s thesis remains intact
• Review of historical “conference dumps” showing that IRL Bitcoin community morale stays strong even during drawdowns
• Deep dive on inflation, the disappearance of the U.S. penny, and long-term fiat degradation compared to Bitcoin
• Macro breakdown: surging U.S. interest expense now surpasses defense spending; government shutdown ends; TGA likely to release liquidity
• Discussion of proposed stimulus checks, 50-year mortgages, and portable/assumable mortgages as evidence policymakers won’t tolerate asset price deflation
• Czech National Bank allocates $1M to Bitcoin—first known central bank to do so
• U.S. regulatory update: Senate draft of the Clarity Act includes explicit protections for self-custody and P2P Bitcoin transactions
• SoFi becomes the first national bank to offer Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana purchases directly inside its banking app
• Major adoption milestone: Square enables Bitcoin/Lightning payments at 4 million merchants with optional Bitcoin settlement
• Market note: Michael Burry closes his fund, citing inability to understand today’s market—hosts contrast this with Bitcoin’s clear macro trajectory

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.