In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” Great Lakes Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Jason Turner says trade disruptions in the Middle East are creating opportunities for exporters elsewhere.

Turner notes the conflict with Iran has largely impacted commodities being transported through the Strait of Hormuz out of the region, but other markets are adapting to meet global demand.

“Those minerals, those goods that are coming from the gulf … they are produced other places,” he said. “And you’ve got countries in Europe, countries in the far east that had been large trading partners of some of those Middle Eastern nations … looking to other places, looking to the United States, looking to Australia, looking to other areas in South America, for example.”

And while commodities coming out through the strait are facing blockades, finished goods that would normally enter the region through the key shipping lane are also being disrupted, Turner explained.

The discussion explores how exporters can navigate the current landscape, including strategies such as contingency planning and running potential scenarios.

“I definitely think flexibility is key … What happens if tariffs were to go up, and have a 25% tariff slapped on anything going between us here?” he said. “Where can I pivot, where can I obtain inputs from, where can I export to?”

He also said it’s “a great time to be thinking about developing new markets” as an exporter, arguing those that are more entrenched will take a larger hit from the conflict.

“There’s those that are also going to take advantage, and become the new supplier for something. Those doors are starting to open up,” Turner said. “The longer the current conflict persists, and the higher the degree of uncertainty around tariffs, the more those other nations are going to look for new markets and new providers.”

Meanwhile, Turner weighs in on stock market trends amid the uncertain environment, corporate income growth, the path ahead for tariff refunds and more.

Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. CEO Sandi Siegel.

The show is sponsored by the Dairy Farmers of Wisconsin, Michael Best Strategies and Carroll University.

In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” UW-Madison Prof. John Pevehouse says the ongoing conflict in Iran is affecting more than oil markets, as the key trade route in the region is being used as a bargaining chip.

The interview was recorded Wednesday, one day after a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war was announced.

“We’ve seen wild market swings, you know, as the conflict has gone on, and clearly there’s been a tremendous depression of trade effect,” Pevehouse said.

While the earlier closure of the Strait of Hormuz had led to skyrocketing fuel costs in the United States and elsewhere, Pevehouse notes the critical shipping route is used to transport the element helium, used for processing computer chips and components.

“Helium is essential, and so that can disrupt the tech sector pretty easily,” he said. “You also have other kinds of refined petroleum products, but also you have a lot of petrochemical feedstock that comes out of the region, in other words, fertilizers and intermediates.”

As much as a third of global fertilizer industries depend on goods moving through the strait, Pevehouse said, noting ripple effects from the conflict through agri-business supply chains.

While the United States has shifted toward energy independence in the past two decades, becoming a net energy exporter, Pevehouse pointed to a “boomerang effect” as Asian countries affected by the conflict drive up prices globally, including domestically.

Meanwhile, as negotiations play out between the U.S. and others in the region, the “omnipresent” threat of Iran closing the strait once again will remain, he said.

“That said, Iran depends on the strait too,” Pevehouse said. “People talk about, ‘Well, they could sink ships and close the strait.’ But that cuts them off too, and that gives them no source of capital.”

Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.

In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” Michael Best Strategies Partner Sarah Helton says uncertainty persists after the recent U.S. Supreme Court tariffs decision.

“It’s nice that we have clarity around where the Supreme Court lands on the president not having authority under IEEPA to impose tariffs, but we are in a kind of part two of a world of uncertainty,” Helton said.

After the nation’s highest court ruled the president can’t use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, undercutting a key element of the Trump administration’s trade policy, questions remain about the potential for refunds for affected businesses.

“I think all eyes are on what the Court of International Trade is going to do next related to refunds and relief for importers for IEEPA tariffs paid,” Helton said, adding “for the thousands of lawsuits that have been filed to date, those essentially have been put on stay right now.”

She said that stay is expected to be lifted soon, but added it’s “not clear” what a framework for getting refunds would look like.

“The soonest that we can get direction from the court, the more clarity there will be on the next steps forward and how soon relief will be provided,” she said.

Helton also weighs in on alternative tariff routes the administration has been using as well as how they could be leveraged going forward.

Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.