In this episode, we sit down with political analyst Marc Saxer to explore his theory of Transformative Realism and why he believes we’re living through a profound systemic crisis. From the erosion of international norms to the urgent need for reimagined statecraft, Marc offers a compelling framework for understanding the forces reshaping our world and what political leadership must look like in response.

Marc Saxer is a political analyst, strategist, and writer with two decades of experience in international relations. He heads the Asia Pacific office of the Friedrich-Ebert-Shtiftung and convenes the Asia Strategic Foresight Group.

Publications:

Transformative Realism: How to overcome the system crisis

Geopolitical Conflict in the Wolf World: Great Power Competition and the Illiberal Revolt against the Liberal Order

Content

00:00 - Introduction

01:38 - Understanding Transformative Realism

04:50 - Defining Systemic Crisis

07:39 - Marc’s Most Compelling Crisis Case Study

15:08 - The Erosion of International Norms and Rules

18:24 - Recognizing the Signs of Systemic Crisis

20:18 - The Role of Agency in Transformative Realism

28:18 - Reimagining Statecraft and Political Leadership

33:44 - The Crisis in Modern Statecraft Education

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In this episode, Vineet Thakur unpacks the historical and intellectual foundations of Indian diplomacy. We discuss classical strategic traditions, civilisational and colonial legacies, caste and elite networks in diplomatic culture, non-alignment and strategic autonomy, neighbourhood diplomacy, and India’s contemporary practice of multi-alignment amid shifting great-power rivalries.

Vineet Thakur is a University Lecturer in International Relations at the Institute for History, Leiden University. He received his doctorate from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, in 2014 and has held academic positions and fellowships across India, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. His professional experience includes teaching appointments at Ambedkar University Delhi, the University of Johannesburg, and the School of Oriental and African Studies, following which he joined Leiden University in 2017. He has been a fellow at the University of Cambridge, the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study, and Rhodes University.

His research is situated in postcolonial international relations, with a particular focus on the politics of knowledge, disciplinary hierarchies, and the global intellectual history of International Relations, especially in the Indian context.

Publications:

V.S. Srinivasa Sastri: A Liberal Life

India’s First Diplomat: V.S. Srinivasa Sastri and the Making of Liberal Internationalism

Postscripts on Independence: Foreign Policy Discourses in India and South Africa

Content

00:00 – Introduction and Framing of India’s Diplomatic Trajectories

02:03 – Mandala Theory and Kautilya’s Arthashastra as Lenses for Contemporary Regional Policy

05:10 – Intellectual and Historical Inspirations Behind India’s Diplomatic Traditions

06:32 – Civilisational State Narratives Versus Colonial Administrative Foundations of Indian Diplomacy

10:53 – Social Stratification and the Influence of Caste Networks on Diplomatic Recruitment and Culture

22:12 – Nehruvian Idealism and Non-Alignment as Strategy: Autonomy, Hedging, and Principled Neutrality

27:55 – Overlooked and Marginalised Practices in India’s Cold War Diplomatic History

30:30 – The Strategic Logic and Practical Outcomes of the “Neighbourhood First” Diplomatic Doctrine

35:18 – Structural Constraints and Policy Stalemate in India–Pakistan Diplomatic Engagement

37:34 – China’s Strategic Shadow and Its Effects on India’s Diplomatic Posture Towards Pakistan

39:08 – India’s Diplomatic Approach to Tibet in Historical and Contemporary Perspective

43:29 – Multi-Alignment as Strategy: Balancing Great Powers in India’s Contemporary Foreign Policy

47:45 – The Absence of a Permanent United Nations Security Council Seat and Its Diplomatic Consequences

51:15 – India–Africa Relations and the Underdeveloped Economic Dimension of South–South Diplomacy

54:21 – Hindu Nationalism and Its Influence on the Ideational Foundations of Indian Diplomacy

58:24 – Neglected Themes and Under-Researched Domains in the Study of Indian Foreign Policy

*** at 10:29, there is a missing word ‘overstated’

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In this episode, Martin Vladimirov unpacks Bulgaria’s evolving energy landscape in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. We discuss shifts in the country’s energy mix, offshore wind prospects in the Black Sea, the strategic role of gas pipelines and interconnectors, and the future of key assets such as the Chiren gas storage facility, the Maritsa Iztok lignite complex, and potential new nuclear reactors.

Martin Vladimirov is Director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), where his work focuses on European and Balkan energy security, energy transition pathways, and the geopolitical dimensions of Russian and Chinese economic influence. He has extensive experience as an energy analyst for The Oil and Gas Year, contributing in-depth reports on Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Saudi Arabia, and has consulted for international oil companies across the GCC and MENA regions. Martin is also an affiliated expert with the European Geopolitical Forum in Brussels and previously worked as an energy and economic analyst for CEE Market Watch, covering Iran and Central Asia.

Publications:

Managing Assets Under OFAC Sanctions

Energy and Climate Security in Europe: From Crisis Response to Structural Transformation

The Kremlin Playbook in Mexico: Asymmetric Influence

The Imperative to Weaken the Kremlin’s War Economy: What the West Can Do

Closing the backdoor: The new TurkStream is here. Can the West stop it?

Content

00:00 – Introduction

01:38 – Bulgaria’s Evolving Energy Mix after the War in Ukraine

09:07 – Exploring Bulgaria’s Offshore Wind Potential

12:45 – Strategic Energy Pipelines Crossing Bulgaria

17:16 – Bulgaria’s Relationship with Gazprom and Gas Contracts

24:14 – The Greece–Bulgaria Gas Interconnector (IGB)

27:05 – Alexandroupolis LNG Terminal and Regional Gas Connectivity

28:53 – The Role of Chiren Underground Gas Storage

34:31 – The Future of the Maritsa Iztok Lignite Power Complex

40:50 – Assessing the Feasibility of Two New Nuclear Reactors

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This episode of The IR thinker features a wide-ranging conversation with Professor Dimitry Kochenov on what it really means to “belong” in a world where citizenship is conditional, unequal, and sometimes absent altogether. We unpack the paradox of citizenship as both a legal fiction and a lived necessity, probing whether institutions truly “grant” citizenship, what it means to live as stateless, and whether “real” EU citizenship exists beyond the rhetoric. The discussion traces how EU citizenship can simultaneously empower individuals, through mobility, rights, and protection, while also hollowing out democratic accountability in member states. We examine “market citizenship” and the monetisation of legal status, asking whether citizenship-by-investment schemes that effectively sell access to the EU should be abolished, and close with a critical look at multiple citizenship: is it an emerging path towards global justice or simply an additional layer of privilege for the already mobile?

Professor Dimitry Kochenov is a leading scholar of global citizenship and constitutionalism, with a particular focus on the rule of law, EU federalism, and external relations law. He heads the Rule of Law research group at the Democracy Institute of Central European University in Budapest and teaches Global Citizenship at CEU’s Department of Legal Studies in Vienna. Through his work on statelessness, EU citizenship, and the political economy of “citizenship for sale”, he has become a key voice in contemporary debates on how legal status shapes human dignity, mobility, and the evolving architecture of international order.

Publications:

EU enlargement and the failure of conditionality: pre-accession conditionality in the fields of democracy and the rule of law

Citizenship

Citizenship and residence sales: rethinking the boundaries of belonging

Ukraine and the EU enlargement: what is the law and which is the way forward?

Content

00:00 - Introduction

02:02 - The Paradox: Can Institutions Grant Citizenship?

06:23 - Living Stateless: Can Humans Exist Without Citizenship?

16:56 - Does “Real” EU Citizenship Actually Exist?

36:06 - Democracy’s Double Edge: How EU Citizenship Both Empowers and Undermines

50:26 - Market Citizenship: When Human Worth Becomes Economic Value

56:39 - Citizenship for Sale: Should the EU abolish those schemes?

01:08:06 - One Citizenship or Many? The Multiple Citizenship Debate

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This episode of The IR thinker offers a clear and structured tour of contemporary nuclear strategy with Dr Stephen Herzog, moving from the basic categories of nuclear weapons to the political struggles surrounding their control. We unpack the logic of existential and extended deterrence, alliance commitments and escalation management, and examine how arms control agreements and the Non-Proliferation Treaty sustain, yet also entrench, a great power nuclear monopoly. The conversation tackles aspirant nuclear states, debates over “how many is enough”, and the tension between confidence and overconfidence in crisis signalling, before turning to how emerging technologies are reshaping verification, command-and-control, and the broader governance of nuclear weapons.

Dr Stephen Herzog is Professor of the Practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and an Associate of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard Kennedy School. A leading specialist in nuclear non-proliferation and arms control, he combines academic expertise with policy experience gained as a technical nuclear arms control official at the U.S. Department of Energy, where he worked directly on the implementation and verification of nuclear agreements. His work bridges theory and practice to illuminate how deterrence, treaty regimes and technological change interact in shaping global nuclear security.

Publications:

Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail

Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility

‘What about China?’ and the threat to US–Russian nuclear arms control

Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use

Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Trilateral Dilemma: Great Power Competition, Global Nuclear Order, and Russia’s War on Ukraine

Content

00:00 – Introduction

01:57 – Types and Categories of Nuclear Weapons

08:40 – Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Historical and Contemporary Contexts

10:32 – Understanding the Concept of Existential Deterrence

16:39 – Extended Deterrence and the Logic of Alliance Security

25:54 – The NPT and the Persistence of Great Power Monopoly

31:53 – Treaty Reform or Status Quo? The Politics of Nuclear Governance

33:12 – Aspirant States and the Quest for Nuclear Capability

34:47 – Escalation Control: Between Arms Agreements and Overconfidence

43:15 – The Dilemma of Quantity: Many vs. Few Nuclear Weapons

50:38 – Authority and Legitimacy: Who Decides Nuclear Access?

55:58 – Technological Challenges to Nuclear Security and Control

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This episode of The IR thinker features Professor Chenggang Xu on the conceptual and empirical foundations of his book Institutional Genes: Origins of China’s Institutions and Totalitarianism. The conversation unpacks what he means by “institutions” and “institutional genes”, how this framework helps to open the black box of political change, and why certain systems prove remarkably resilient over time. We explore the notion of “stemness”, the contrasts between imperial China and European monarchies, and how specific “genes” in the Russian system shaped Bolshevism. Professor Xu then traces Mao’s fusion of Marxism with the legacy of Qin Shi Huang, the institutional differences between Soviet and Chinese communism, and whether contemporary China should be understood as totalitarian or authoritarian. The discussion closes by examining tyrannical incentive structures, the risks of Soviet-style stagnation, and how the institutional genes framework can be extended beyond domestic politics to foreign policy and other domains of global governance.

Professor Chenggang Xu is a Senior Research Scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution. A leading scholar of institutional economics, political economy and the Chinese political–economic system, he is widely known for developing the concept of regionally decentralised authoritarianism and, more recently, for his work on institutional genes and the historical roots of Chinese totalitarianism. His research is extensively cited in both academic and policy circles, and he has been awarded the China Economics Prize and the Sun Yefang Economics Prize in recognition of his contribution to the study of institutions, development and authoritarian governance.

Publications:

The fundamental institutions of China’s reforms and development

Incentives, information, and organizational form

Industrial clustering, income and inequality in rural China

Clustering, growth and inequality in China

Content

00:00 - Introduction

01:45 - Why this book? The story behind ‘Institutional Genes’

06:34 - Defining ‘institution’ in the institutional genes framework

10:45 - Opening the black box: How institutional genes explain political change

16:29 - The concept of ‘stemness’ explained

20:01 - Imperial China vs European monarchies: Why China was more autocratic

28:28 - The three Russian genes that created Bolshevism

33:43 - Mao’s fusion: Marx plus Qin Shi Huang

38:58 - Soviet vs Chinese communism: Key institutional differences

42:23 - Totalitarian or authoritarian? Defining modern China

48:35 - Tyrannical incentive-compatibility: How totalitarian systems motivate

53:01 - Will China face Soviet-style economic stagnation?

58:52 - Applying institutional genes to foreign policy

01:03:16 - Beyond domestic politics: Where else can we apply this framework?

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This episode of The IR thinker features an incisive conversation with Dr Madalitso Zililo Phiri on what it means to think International Relations from Africa rather than merely about Africa. We interrogate whether an African IR theory exists, how concepts such as Ubuntu, communalism and non-statist authority can reframe sovereignty and power, and what this implies for applying African ideas beyond the continent. The discussion probes Africa’s marginalisation in multilateral decision-making, the contemporary mutations of Pan-Africanism, and South Africa’s foreign policy through a realist lens. We also explore how liberal and mainstream constructivist IR traditions have historically excluded African experiences, what a decolonial constructivism might look like in practice, and whether scholars should pursue a distinct “African school” or treat Africa as a generative site for pluralising the discipline as a whole.

Dr Madalitso Zililo Phiri is a Post-Doctoral Fellow in the South Africa–United Kingdom Bilateral Research Chair in Political Theory at the University of the Witwatersrand. A former Visiting Fellow at the Centre of African Studies and Research Associate at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and a Carnegie Corporation Fellow via the SSRC’s Next Generation of Social Science in Africa programme, his research spans the political economy of racialised welfare in South Africa and Brazil, the sociology of race, and Black political thought. He has taught African Studies, Sociology, Politics and Research Methods at Cambridge, Wits, Pretoria and Rhodes universities, bringing a decolonial and critical theoretical lens to the study of power, knowledge and global order.

Publications:

The Colour of Inequality in South Africa and Brazil: making sense of social policy as reparations

Monuments and Memory in Africa: reflections on coloniality and decoloniality

Against Imperial Social Policy: Recasting Mkandawire’s Transformative Ideas for Africa’s Liberation

History of Racial Capitalism in Africa: Violence, Ideology, and Practice

Content

00:00 – Introduction

02:05 – Does African IR Theory Exist? Epistemologies Beyond the West

06:27 – Ubuntu, Communalism, and Reimagining Sovereignty

10:45 – Applying African Concepts to Non-African Issues

15:01 – Authority Beyond the State: African Approaches to Power

19:48 – Africa’s Exclusion from Multilateral Decision-Making

25:13 – Pan-Africanism in 2025: Dead or Evolving?

29:26 – South Africa’s Power Politics Through a Realist Lens

34:24 – Liberal IR Theory’s Historical Exclusion of Africa

37:46 – Constructivism: Opening or Limiting Space for African Voices?

41:22 – Postcolonialism and Decolonizing IR Theory

47:22 – Which IR Theory Dominates African Scholarship Today?

50:14 – The Risks of Essentializing “African IR Theory”

52:57 – Continental Focus vs. State-Centric Analysis in African IR

56:54 – Distinct African School or Contribution to Global Pluralism?

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This special 100th episode of IR thinker revisits Germany’s gas security with Andreas Schroeder, the very first expert to appear on the channel in January 2023. We trace how Germany has reshaped its gas architecture since the war in Ukraine, from the shift towards short-term pipeline contracts and the rapid expansion of LNG import capacity to changes in storage policy and declining domestic gas consumption. The discussion examines plans for new gas-fired power plants, the security implications of the nuclear phase-out, and Germany’s emerging role as a gas hub and exporter in competition with neighbours such as Poland. We also explore the country’s growing dependence on US and Norwegian supplies, the debate over Russian LNG, and the prospects of sourcing gas from Africa, Qatar and Canada, before assessing the key risks that will define Germany’s natural gas security in the years ahead.

Andreas Schroeder is Head of Energy Analytics (Quantitative) at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), where he leads an international team analysing global energy market dynamics. His work combines quantitative modelling with market intelligence to assess gas flows, contract structures and price formation across Europe and beyond, and he regularly contributes to analytical reports and media commentary on European gas security and energy transition challenges.

Content

00:00 – Introduction

03:13 – Current Natural Gas Flows to Germany and Contract Structures

05:08 – The Logic Behind Short-Term Pipeline Contracts

07:27 – LNG Imports and the Expansion of German Infrastructure

09:47 – Gas Storage Developments Since the War in Ukraine

14:03 – Declining Gas Consumption in Germany: Causes and Implications

16:58 – New Gas-Fired Power Plants in Germany

19:32 – The Impact of the Nuclear Phase-Out on Energy Security

22:20 – Innovative Gas Procurement Strategies for the German Market

24:42 – Germany’s Role as a Gas Exporter

26:43 – Export Infrastructure and Capacity

28:23 – Competition Between Germany and Poland in Gas Trade

30:43 – Dependence on US and Norwegian Gas After the Russian Cut-Off

33:26 – Can the EU Operate Without Russian LNG?

35:24 – The Potential of African Gas for Germany

36:53 – Qatar’s Role in Germany’s Gas Supply

39:53 – Canada as an Emerging Gas Partner for Germany

41:52 – Future Challenges for Germany’s Natural Gas Security

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