Louis-Vincent Gave joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack a world that looks chaotic... but may be quietly reordering itself. From a surprising thaw in U.S.–China relations to a potential renaissance in Latin America and Canada, Louis argues that today’s volatility is accelerating deeper structural shifts. He explains why Europe remains fragmented, why energy prices could derail everything, and why investors may be thinking about risk all wrong.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome & Introducing Louis Gave (Gavekal Research)

(02:43) - Liberation Day Shocks

(05:02) - China De‑Westernizing Supply Chains After 2018

(07:40) - Trump as Accelerant

(09:31) - Why a US–China Cold War Is Economically Suicidal

(11:50) - Drones Change War

(13:47) - The ‘Swamp’ Factor

(18:27) - Defense Supply Chains & Rare Earth Dependence

(21:19) - Xi’s Priorities

(25:47) - Xi’s Security, PLA Purges, and Corruption Crackdowns

(31:17) - Xi’s Army Purge

(32:37) - US-China Rapprochement

(34:36) - Who Wins if the Cold War Ends?

(35:58) - Why Latin America Looks Like the Breakout Trade

(40:24) - Mexico Risks

(42:24) - Bullish Canada

(44:37) - Does USMCA Survive?

(47:31) - No Army, No Foreign Policy

(51:00) - Can Europe Rebuild Real Military Power?

(53:27) - Ukraine Endgame

(56:23) - What Keeps Louis Up at Night

(01:00:32) - Bitcoin vs Diversification

(01:01:30) - Closing Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

Louis-Vincent Gave - https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Something extraordinary just happened in Japan... but of course no one is paying attention!

A ruling party written off as tired and scandal-plagued didn’t just win - they delivered a generational landslide. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female Prime Minister, led her Liberal Democrats into a victory so complete that the opposition straight up imploded (see: winning 2/3 of Parliament). At the center of the dust cloud stands a leader arguing Japan must harden itself for a dangerous world: rebuild industry, rearm, and rely on no one but itself. This isn’t incremental politics. It’s a bet on national revival. If it works, Japan will change the global balance. If it fails, the country may well collapse.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:03) - The Significance of the Recent Japanese Election

(03:11) - Analyzing the LDP's Historic Victory

(07:37) - The Collapse of the Opposition

(13:39) - Public Opinion and Political Dynamics

(27:52) - Constraints and Challenges for Takaichi

(35:13) - Sanae Takaichi's Vision for Japan

(36:39) - Japan's National Crisis and Self-Reliance

(38:38) - Economic and Defense Strategies

(40:46) - Comparing Policies: Omics vs. Maji 2.0

(45:51) - Challenges and Constraints

(57:49) - Energy and Industrial Policies

(01:04:53) - Geopolitical Dynamics and China's Influence

(01:11:16) - Conclusion and Future Outlook

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Referenced in the Show:

Tobias substack - https://observingjapan.substack.com/

Tobias book - https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Hamidreza Azizi joins the pod for an emergency episode on the current state of Iran amidst escalating tensions with the United States. Azizi examines the potential for conflict between the two and and offers insights into Iran's internal politics, the role of the IRGC, and the possible repercussions of a U.S. attack.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:46) - Iran's Domestic Situation

(02:44) - US-Iran Tensions and Military Movements

(04:08) - Iran's Response and Internal Dynamics

(09:41) - Potential Scenarios and Outcomes

(28:31) - Iran's Military Capabilities and Strategies

(41:16) - Regional Implications and Global Reactions

(54:33) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

Hamidreza’s Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/

Middle East Council - https://mecouncil.org/experts_members/hamidreza-azizi/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob sits down with agricultural economist Dr. David Kohl to unpack what a brutal downturn in farm profitability reveals about globalization, capital concentration, labor shortages, and long-term economic resilience. The two touch on tariffs, debt, and the limits of export-led growth, and then the conversation widens to examine how technology, demographics, and financial fragility are reshaping both rural America and the national economy.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:56) - Discussion on US Ag Economy

(02:17) - Challenges and Opportunities in Agriculture

(07:09) - Land Values and Institutional Investments

(12:24) - Generational Transition in Farming

(18:02) - Export Markets vs. Domestic Focus

(23:03) - Future Trends and Strategic Insights

(25:55) - Venture Capital in Agriculture

(28:09) - Economic Outlook for 2026

(29:21) - The K-Shaped Economy Explained

(31:39) - Impact of AI and Job Cuts

(34:55) - Global Economic Concerns

(41:05) - Technological Advancements in Farming

(49:39) - Financial Literacy and Life Skills

(51:32) - Closing Remarks and Future Outlook

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Referenced in the Show:

Dave Kohl: https://www.farmprogress.com/author/david-kohl

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Andrey Sizov, a Black Sea agricultural markets, joins the pod to talk about about why the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global grain trade far less than expected - and why that may be changing. Jacob and Sizov examine recent attacks on shipping, the fragile balance keeping Black Sea exports moving, and how escalation could ripple through wheat, corn, energy markets, and global food security. Of course, they also tie in Iran, China’s commodity buying, and what geopolitical risk really means for global agriculture.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:24) - Black Sea Geopolitics and Agricultural Markets

(01:09) - Technical Issues and Podcast Logistics

(01:45) - Start of the Interview with Andre Coff

(03:27) - Black Sea's Importance in Global Trade

(04:32) - Market Reactions and Historical Context

(06:09) - Recent Developments and Speculations

(13:52) - Prospects for a Deal and Future Outlook

(17:07) - Impact on U.S. Agriculture and Market Sentiments

(23:00) - Turkey's Role in the Black Sea Region

(24:29) - Turkey's Role in the Black Sea

(26:22) - Turkey's Wheat Imports and Black Sea Stability

(28:22) - Sunflower Market Insights

(30:06) - Iran's Political and Economic Challenges

(33:07) - US and Israeli Involvement in Iran

(38:55) - China's Agricultural Trade with the US

(43:13) - Global Grains Trade and Self-Sufficiency

(50:02) - Conclusion and Future Outlook

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Referenced in the Show:

Andrey Sizov's Reports: https://sizov.report/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Economist Mike Konczal joins the show to unpack the escalating pressure campaign against the Federal Reserve, new inflation data, and what all of this means for the U.S. economy. Jacob and Mike discuss whether Trump’s confrontation with Jerome Powell is genuinely dangerous, how tariffs and immigration policy are shaping prices and growth, and why the labor market looks weaker beneath the surface. Mike is more cautiously optimistic than we expected - but the downside risks remain real.

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Timestamps:

(01:26) - Fed and Executive Branch Dynamics

(05:49) - Economic Consequences and Market Reactions

(09:03) - Global Perspective on US Economic Policies

(14:09) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

(15:12) - Future of Fed Independence and Supreme Court Cases

(17:06) - Economic Theories and Real-World Implications

(27:01) - Economic Data Post-Government Shutdown

(27:14) - Inflation Insights and Core Prices

(28:02) - Trump's Approval Ratings and Economic Perception

(29:03) - Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Analysis

(30:48) - Federal Reserve's Stance on Inflation

(31:34) - Impact of Tariffs on Inflation

(33:13) - Trump's Influence on Federal Reserve Policies

(41:00) - Economic Predictions for Midterms

(45:43) - China's Trade Surplus and Global Impact

(51:32) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Shock, instability, climate stress, financial panic, political rupture: the question isn’t who avoids disruption, but who absorbs it and keeps moving. Jacob invites on Parag Khanna of AlphaGeo to wrestle with a harder metric than dominance or growth - resilience. What actually allows states, systems, and societies to adapt when the rules keep changing? Shapiro and Khanna explore the events driving this week's headlines (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland) and dive into the underlying systems that actually determine outcomes: resilience, adaptation, and the capacity to recover when shocks pile up.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:10) - Geopolitical Risks and Resilience

(03:10) - Historical Geopolitics and Current Events

(05:11) - Challenges in Latin America

(12:47) - Asia's Geopolitical Landscape

(20:41) - Technological Impact on Geopolitics

(34:18) - Africa's Geopolitical Future

(38:38) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

AlphaGeo: https://alphageo.ai/

Henley index: https://tinyurl.com/henleyindex

Parag's Site: http://paragkhanna.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Venezuela has become the flashpoint for a new era of American hard power - not just a regime change, but a raw assertion of dominance over the "backyard." Elohim Monard graces the pod with his presence once more as the U.S. treats a sovereign nation like a criminal organization to secure global oil markets, and the ideological fractures across Latin America deepen. Is this the beginning of a peaceful transition or the birth of ten years of chaos? This moment forces a reckoning: what happens when stability is traded for extraction, when ideology gives way to brute pragmatism, and when Latin America’s future is shaped less by its people than by who controls the valves?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:12) - Discussing Recent Events in Venezuela

(02:59) - US Involvement and Imperialism

(06:15) - Historical Context and Comparisons

(08:58) - Reactions from Latin American Leaders

(14:30) - Potential Future Scenarios

(24:56) - Cuba's Situation and US Strategy

(27:29) - Media Critique and Final Thoughts

(28:46) - Stephen Miller's Perspective on Venezuela

(32:36) - US Strategy in Latin America

(34:00) - Future of US Dominance in the Western Hemisphere

(37:14) - Impact of Chinese Investments

(44:25) - Potential Chaos in Venezuela

(54:38) - Implications for Peru

(58:03) - Final Thoughts and Upcoming Discussions

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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