Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market. Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check. The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher?

0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility

2:00 – Truck vs rail market split

4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy

6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply

8:00 – Euro supply dropping off

12:00 – Tariffs (AR6 → AR7) breakdown

15:00 – Mills still losing money

18:00 – Logistics driving everything

25:00 – Macro + economy check

27:00 – SYP gaining market share

38:00 – Futures shifting (contango → tighter)

46:00 – Just-in-time buyers vs distributors

Guest

Kip Fotheringham

kip@telus.net

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Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction. The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts. They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy. If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers.

Timeline

00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup 03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts 08:30 – Government spending vs affordability 14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook 16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues 18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand 24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained 30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class 41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks

Guest

Brian S. Wesbury

Chief Economist / First Trust

www.ftportfolios.com

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first! The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think.

0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel)

4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why nothing’s changing soon

9:00 – Freight explosion: rail surcharges + trucking volatility crushing margins

13:00 – Back-to-back trading vs. real value in a chaotic logistics market

14:00 – Pine vs. Spruce: why SYP ripped and SPF lagged hard

20:00 – Contracts vs. spot market—are they distorting price discovery?

29:00 – Freight as the real driver of the pine rally (canary in the coal mine)

33:00 – Bull market or head fake? Supply cuts vs. pipeline restock debate

35:00 – “Seller arrogance” = warning sign of a potential top

40:00 – Buyers scrambling to rebuild inventory + hot items emerging fast

Freight is the hidden force, Pine led the charge, and now the market’s walking a tightrope between a continued grind higher… or the early signs of a summer reset.

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down. From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might be closer than you think. If you want to understand what’s actually driving this market—and where the opportunity (and risk) is—this one delivers.

0:00 – Intro + Mike Logan returns

1:00 – Building a trading team from scratch (startup realities)

5:00 – Hiring, training, and the next generation in lumber

7:45 – Market kickoff: everything moving higher

9:00 – Texas demand, low inventories, and species substitution

12:00 – Low-grade explosion (why #3 is driving the bus)

16:00 – Hem-fir + western market tightness

17:45 – Southern Yellow Pine surge + short positions

19:30 – Freight chaos: trucks disappearing, costs spiking

23:00 – Why logistics = real pricing power right now

27:00 – Regional markets tightening due to freight

29:00 – When does the “panic buying” moment hit?

30:30 – Global flows (Euro, Middle East disruption)

33:30 – Macro curveballs: rates, crypto, housing demand

36:30 – Inventory positioning: who’s exposed right now

Guest

Mike Logelin

President-Gulf Coast Shelter

mlogelin@gulfcoastshelter.com

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started.

0:00 – Market flips from slow to active

2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength

7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov

10:00 – Order files into April

12:00 – Freight tightening supply

15:00 – Buyers now chasing

28:00 – Supply vs demand imbalance

35:00 – Early innings of the move

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run.

The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species. Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle.

00:00 – Intro & market setup

03:00 – Freight costs jump

07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing

12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay

18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing)

26:00 – Second‑half market outlook

31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market

38:00 – Futures & trade ideas

41:00 – OSB and other materials

Guest

Sig Thoma

Sig@XMICO.com

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market. The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time? If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market.

0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market

1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs

6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring

12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing

16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics

20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength

24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying

27:00 – Lumber price outlook

30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand

33:00 – Western supply shifts

36:30 – Final market takeaways

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.

Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.

So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?

In this episode, the guys debate:

Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing

Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada

Southern Pine regional price spreads

What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory

Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does

Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules

Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?

Strap in.

Timestamps

00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins

02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect

04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments

10:00 – Southern Pine update

18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion

24:00 – Trading range debate

36:00 – Why mills keep running

42:00 – Tariff clarification

Guest:

Kip Foteringham

Independent Trader and Market Analyst

kipf@telus.net

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com