In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell returns from the RIU Sydney Resources Roundup to discuss a market caught between "fatigue" and "crunch time."

While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical threat, Frappell explains how record US shale exports and a strategic reduction in Chinese imports have bought the global economy a temporary reprieve — though perhaps a deceptive one.

The episode explores the "enormous tech spend" currently rivaling the economies of Singapore and Argentina, and how this infrastructure race competes with an already strained electrical grid.

Plus, a deep dive into silver’s unexpected 18% rally and the technical hurdles gold must clear to regain its bullish tilt.

Recorded: 13 May 2026

• Market status: Gold is consolidating at $4,711/oz, while silver has made a "surprising leap" to $86/oz.
• The recap: Key insights from the RIU Sydney conference, focusing on the downstream effects of hyperscaler compute spend.
• The geopolitical buffer: How the Permian basin and Chinese reserve reliance are muting the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
• Silver mania: Analysis of the $86/oz silver price — is it Peru’s fuel emergency or the return of the "meme punter"?
• The $650B compute spend: Why tech giants are competing with aging electrical infrastructure, a dynamic Nick notes rivals the total economic output of Singapore.
• Hormuz & inflation: The 80-basis-point rise in Fed rate expectations since February and why central banks are desperate to keep inflation expectations "anchored."
• India’s strategic pivot: The Modi government’s decision to tax gold and silver imports to preserve hard currency for critical energy resources.
• The "Hammer" re-test: Assessing gold’s position within the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and the $4,850 "line in the sand" for bulls.

Timestamps

• (00:00) – Market Overview: Gold at $4,711; Silver at $86.
• (02:31) – RIU Sydney Recap: The massive tech spend and electrical infrastructure constraints.
• (05:07) – Strait of Hormuz Update: Why the closure effects still look underpriced.
• (07:23) – Fed Expectations: The 80-bps tightening since February and gold’s bullish narrative.
• (08:32) – US CPI Analysis: April’s 3.8% reading and the "balance of payments" advantage.
• (10:22) – Technical Analysis: Exploring the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and the $4,850 ceiling.
• (12:55) – Silver Deep Dive: Peru’s fuel emergency and COMEX inventory flows.
• (16:13) – Managed Money & ETFs: Positioning updates and the "Fast Money" fatigue.
• (18:37) – Point & Figure: Medium-term targets and the $4,000 support level.
• (21:20) – Final Thoughts: US-Iran conflict fatigue and the looming "crunch time."

Gold Resistance: $4,850 (Daily Ichimoku Cloud Top). A close above this is required to regain a bullish tilt.

Gold Support: $4,000 (Major Weekly Cloud Top support level).

Silver Momentum: Up 18% since May 6th; watch for physical premiums on COMEX.

Macro Marker: January 2027 Fed rate expectations (up 80 bps since late February).

• Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional analysis at abcrefinery.com
• Follow Shae Russell: @shaearussell
• Follow Nick Frappell: @nick_frappell

In this high-stakes update, Nicholas Frappell examines the "U-turn" in the gold market following a period of extreme volatility. After gold hit a significant low of US$4,100 on March 23rd, it staged a US$300 rally, creating a powerful "Hammer" candlestick that has redefined the short-term technical floor.

The discussion focuses heavily on the fragile two-week ceasefire in the Gulf and its immediate impact on the energy-gold nexus.

Key Discussion Points

• The Hammer Reversal: Analysing the March 23rd price action where gold recovered from US$4,100 to close at US$4,407, providing a definitive technical signal.
• The Ceasefire Catalyst: How the cessation of hostilities led to a US$15/bbl drop in Dated Brent and a US$90 surge in gold over the week.
• Asymmetric Shocks: Why the US Dollar outperformed Eurozone and Asian currencies during the Hormuz blockade due to America's status as a net petroleum exporter.
• The Fragile Peace: Differing interpretations of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, specifically regarding the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Economic Scars: Why the shocks to refinery runs in Singapore and Southeast Asia are already "baked into the cake," regardless of the ceasefire’s duration.

Timestamps

• (00:00) – Introduction: Recording on 10 April 2026.
• 00:44) – Technical U-Turn: The US$4,100 low and the "Hammer" candle.
• (02:15) – Currency Dynamics: The dollar as a safe haven and the balance of trade shock.
• (04:25) – The Ceasefire Stress Test: US, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz negotiations.
• (06:06) – Rate Expectations: Why Fed pricing remains largely unchanged despite the conflict.
• (07:32) – Positioning Update: Steady managed money longs and global ETF holdings (98.55m oz).
• (08:21) – Price Targets: Short-term upside to US$4,830; medium-term resistance at US$5,075.
• (11:25) – Global Investors Summit: Nick previews his upcoming trip to Hong Kong.

Current Trend: Gold remains technically bearish in the daily timeframe despite the rally; a close above US$5,100 is required to challenge the Daily Ichimoku Cloud top.

Resistance Levels: US$4,935 (Cloud Base) and US$5,075 (Cloud Top).

Support Levels: US$4,100 (Hammer Low) and US$4,450 (Short-term downside target).

More Resources

• Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.
• Follow Shae Russell: @shaearussell
• Follow Nick Frappell: @nick_frappell

In this mid-March edition of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Nicholas Frappell distills the escalating US-Iran conflict. This discussion moves beyond the initial market shock to explore why gold is currently behaving more like a risk asset than a safe haven.

Nick provides a high-level tactical analysis of the Middle Eastern theatre, from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the potential for American "boots on the ground" at Kharg Island. The episode breaks down the energy supply shock—impacting everything from global chip production to fertilizer supplies—and why the markets may be dangerously "fading" these geopolitical risks.

Technical analysts will also find deep value in Nick’s breakdown of gold’s breach of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and a Point & Figure target for Brent Crude that suggests the energy crisis is far from over.

📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th March 2026, this episode explores:

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction: Precious metals prices as of 19 March 2026.
• (01:09) – Geopolitical Realities: Analysing the widening downstream impacts of the Iran conflict.
• (03:22) – The Safe Haven Paradox: Why the US dollar is winning while gold retreats.
• (05:53) – Energy Mitigants: Pipelines, emergency reserves, and the "Tank Top" countdown.
• (08:00) – Military Dimensions: The USS Tripoli and the risk of American boots on Iranian soil.
• (09:32) – Positioning: Managed Money’s surprising caution in the face of high volatility.
• (10:46) – Brent Oil Forecasts: Technical targets as the energy shock intensifies.
• (11:51) – Technical Analysis: Gold’s first breach of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud since mid-2025.
• (14:40) – The End of the Carry Trade? Second-order effects of yen weakness and energy imports.
• (16:24) – Key Takeaways: Headline risk, the Macbeth quote, and the legacy of war.

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

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