In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis we discuss whether we are in an AI bubble and various factors investor should consider.

YouTube Video Links: Why This Isn't an AI Bubble (Yet)

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Show Notes

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see Speedwell's and Drew Cohen Money's full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers

In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss S&P 500 valuations and concentration, and provide short thoughts on Constellation Software, Intuit, Sea Limited, and Mercado Libre.

YouTube Video Links: S&P 500 Concentration

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Show Notes

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see Speedwell's and Drew Cohen Money's full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers

In this wide spanning interview I spoke with pseudonymous investor Rose Celine. Rose is quite prolific on Twitter/X, commonly sharing his sharp thoughts on a variety of different stocks. In this interview we cover several of his investments and how he thinks about various investing topics. We hope you enjoy!

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Show Notes

(0:00) — Rose's Background
(6:31) — Investment Philosophy
(8:46) — Punch Card Investing
(13:27) — Axon Mistake
(20:28) — Mercado Libre Investment Case
(27:37) — Thoughts on Sea Limited Competition
(32:44) — South America Profitability vs the U.S.?
(40:28) — Portfolio Construction
(44:38) — DLocal Investment Thesis
(54:45) — Importance of Management
(55:57) — Why Rose Invested in ServiceNow
(59:32) — Valuation Thoughts
(1:10:50) — Mercado Libre FinTech Risk
(1:17:58) — Business Models Rose Avoids
(1:21:42) — How to Judge an Opportunity Based on Opportunity Cost
(1:29:07) — Sell a Great Business When it's Overvalued?

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ Also see Drew Cohen's disclaimers here: https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers

On this podcast we talk to Gunjan Bhartia, Former VP of Strategy & Business at Coupang to explore Coupang's evolving strategy—from international expansion to business model evolution—and the hidden risks that may be overlooked by the market. This was orginally recorded as an AlphaSense webinar in January, and we thank AlphaSense for letting us release it on our podcast too.

Sign-Up for the Adobe AI Expert Call Here. We will have this conversation on May 5th, but you will be able to download a recording if you sign-up now and miss that time.

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Show Notes

(0:00) — Intro
(5:10) — South Korean E-Commerce Competitive Landscape
(9:25) — What Coupang's Market Share Could Be
(10:47) — Biggest Gaps in Selection on Coupang
(16:16) — Differences Between 1P vs 3P
(18:30) — Taiwan
(23:00) — Coupang vs Sea Limited in Taiwan
(28:32) — Can Coupang Expand Beyond Korea?
(35:40) — Coupang Eats Strategy
(40:04) — Coupang Pay Strategy
(42:27) — Advertising Runway
(46:08) — Coupang Pay Strategy
(50:04) — Why 1P is More Profitable Than 3P
(58:02) — Risks Facing Coupang

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ Also see Drew Cohen's disclaimers here: https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers

In this insightful interview I spoke with Hedge Fund Manager of Hayden Capital, Fred Liu. We talked about his investment philosophy of "emerging compounders" and how he likes to concentrate in a few stocks. We also talk about a few of his investments including Sea Limited and AppLovin.

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Show Notes

(0:00) — Intro
(0:43) — Fred Liu's Investment Philosophy
(2:39) — Looking for Owner-Operators
(4:49) — Why Fred Liu Concentrates His Portfolio
(8:29) — Thoughts on Trimming Winners
(16:03) — Investing in Rational Capital Allocators
(19:15) — What Fred Liu Saw in Sea Limited and Shopee in 2018
(32:38) — Why Amazon Isn't Successful Globally & How Pinduoduo Took Over Alibaba
(44:49) — Why Fred Liu Exited Pinduoduo
(46:48) — Expectations With Sea Limited
(51:48) — Shopee's Strategy in Brazil Compared to Mercado Libre
(58:22) — AppLovin Investment Thesis
(1:05:07) — Expectations for AppLovin Going Forward
(1:09:15) — AppLovin's Risks
(1:11:49) — Where You Can Find Fred Liu

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ Also see Drew Cohen's disclaimers here: https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers

In this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we discuss private credit and take-aways from our Shift4, Chris Mayer and Bill Nygren interivews.

YouTube Video Links: Private Credit, Tax Implications of Selling Stock

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Please reach out to info@speedwellresearch.com if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.

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Show Notes

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. This may change without notice. Please see Speedwell's and Drew Cohen Money's full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ https://www.drewcohenmoney.com/disclaimers

In this insightful interview I spoke with fund manager Chris Mayer. Chris is an investment fund manager and author of many books including "100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100 to 1 and How to Find Them". In this interview we talk everything from investment philosophy and when to sell to specific stocks like Constellation Software and Copart. We hope you enjoy!

You can find a video version of this podcast on YouTube here

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Show Notes

(0:50) — Investment Philosophy
(1:45) — Concentration
(4:08) — Margin of Safety
(7:18) — Risk of Paying a Premium Multiple
(10:02) — Buy & Hold or Sell?
(17:33) — CSU Reinvestment Risk
(24:02) — What Stocks Excite Chris the Most
(28:26) — Is the Quality Sell-Off Justified?
(33:31) — AI Risks
(37:14) — Thoughts on Copart
(51:00) — Research Process
(1:02:44) — What Companies Will Be Impacted by AI
(1:08:52) — How Do You Have Confidence in a Buy/Sell Decision?
(1:13:05) — How Psychological Biases Affect Decision Making
(1:16:55) — The Risk of Copying Successful Investors
(1:22:03) — Why You Can Time the Market
(1:24:36) — The Investor's Odyssey

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this incredible interview I spoke with legendary investor Bill Nygren, who has beaten the market over a 25 year period by around 200bps. This is an extremely hard and rare feat. In our wide-spanning conversation Bill tells us about everything from his investment process and valuation framework to how to value a cyclical business, the importance of management, investing lessons from Netflix & Meta, as well as what a lot of value investors get wrong. We even had time to talk about his Salesforce and Airbnb postions a bit. We hope you enjoy!

You can find a video version of this podcast on YouTube here

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Show Notes

(0:51) — Bill Nygren's Investment Philosophy
(4:15) — Valuation Timeframe
(9:22) — Is There a Thing as Fair Value?
(12:19) — Investing in Banks
(17:30) — Why Haven't We Had a Normal Recession?
(18:43) — How to Value a Cyclical Business?
(23:24) — How Confident Can You Be on Your Downside?
(24:36) — Does the Quality of Management Matter?
(26:28) — How Important is ROIC?
(28:34) — Should an Investor Buy & Hold Forever?
(39:21) — The Role of Talking to Management in Your Investment Process
(41:54) — Research Process
(44:54) — How to Gain Confidence in Your Research
(49:08) — Investing Lessons From Meta & Netflix
(1:03:48) — Portfolio Analyst Relationship
(1:06:38) — Portfolio Diversification
(1:10:06) — Salesforce and the AI Risks
(1:13:64) — What to Do About Deferred Revenue in Software Stocks
(1:17:26) — Why Bill Owns Airbnb Over Booking Holdings

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/