As conflict with Iran intensifies, economic consequences are beginning to extend beyond the battlefield, from rising energy prices to growing concerns about inflation and household costs. Ambassador David M. Satterfield and John W. Diamond, director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy, discuss what a prolonged conflict could mean for the U.S. economy — and why everyday Americans may soon feel the effects.

This conversation was recorded on May 20, 2026.

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It’s Tax Day, and this episode steps back from the headlines to look at the forces shaping the U.S. fiscal and economic outlook. From the latest federal budget proposals and rising defense costs to updated projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Treasury Department on deficits and debt, the fiscal picture is facing growing pressure.

Ambassador David M. Satterfield and John W. Diamond examine how the costs of ongoing and potential conflicts factor into an already strained budget environment, alongside broader economic crosscurrents, including private equity stress, immigration trends, tariffs, fiscal stimulus, and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence.

With geopolitical tensions adding uncertainty, this episode asks: How much stability remains in the system?

This conversation was recorded on April 15, 2026.

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If the Federal Government was scaled down to a household budget, it would make $52,000 a year and be spending $73,000 – a surplus of $21,000 that would quickly put the average American in debt. In this episode of “The Two-Handed Economist,” John Diamond dives into the current financial state of the Federal Government and its connection to the silent but approaching private credit troubles looming in the background. By taking the trillion dollar issue of the Federal Government and moving it into a scalable point of reference, Diamond explains the long-term accountability issues that are only going to worsen in our budget.

On the private credit side, he sheds light onto this opaque, untested market and warns its vulnerability could spill over to the public market and Capitol Hill, pressuring lawmakers to step in and provide relief in their already inflexible financial state.

This conversation was recorded on Mar. 24, 2026.

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What happens to the economy when the U.S. Supreme Court overturns a major Trump administration tariff strategy? On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down sweeping tariffs imposed under emergency authority, forcing a rapid policy shift and raising new questions about trade, markets, and the federal budget.

In this episode of Baker Briefing, Ambassador David Satterfield is joined by John Diamond, director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy, to break down the economic impact of the ruling. They discuss whether tariffs delivered on promises to boost manufacturing and generate revenue, how their removal could affect deficits and inflation, and why uncertainty — more than any single policy — may shape the outlook for businesses and global markets. The conversation also examines what tariff tools remain available to the administration and what comes next for U.S. trade policy.

This conversation was recorded on February 23, 2026.

Featured:

• Ambassador David M. Satterfield
• John W. Diamond, Ph.D.

Mentioned in this episode:

• Learning Resources, Inc., et al. v. Trump, President of the United States, et al., U.S. Supreme Court, announced February 20, 2026. (chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf)

This conversation was recorded on February 23, 2026.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The Trump administration has touted its tariff strategy as a historic economic success, citing record stock market highs, falling trade deficits, and “virtually no inflation.” But what do the numbers actually show? In this episode of “Baker Briefing”, Ambassador David Satterfield sits down with John Diamond, Director of the Baker Institute’s Center for Tax and Budget Policy, to examine the data behind the claims. They break down who really pays for the tariffs, what’s driving GDP growth, and whether inflation has truly fallen. This conversation offers an objective assessment of how tariffs are reshaping the U.S. economy and who is ultimately better off as a result.

Featured:

• Ambassador David Satterfield: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield
• John Diamond, Ph.D.: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond

Mentioned in this episode:

• “Donald J. Trump: My Tariffs Have Brought America Back,” Wall Street Journal.
• Two-Handed Economist Podcast, hosted by Dr. John Diamond: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/two-handed-economist-podcast

This conversation was recorded on February 10, 2026.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

John Diamond argues that the government shutdown has become an economic tax on ordinary Americans. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is heeding warning signals from the labor market as artificial intelligence and automation rewrite the rules for major industries, prompting companies like Amazon, UPS, and Intel to lay off thousands of workers.

In other news, President Donald Trump is busy signing trade deals in China and Southeast Asia. But the deals’ actual value depends on how long they’re sustained.

This episode was recorded on Oct. 29, 2025.

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As the government shutdown drags on, the economic and political costs are mounting. John W. Diamond explains the impacts for workers, markets, and economic policymaking. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is still expanding. But the tug-of-war between demand and supply shocks — notably, declining immigration and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies — amount to a fragile equilibrium.

This conversation was recorded on Oct. 15, 2025.

Mentioned:

• Bill King, “Republicans Getting the Blame for the Shutdown,” https://www.billkingblog.com/blog/republicans-getting-the-blame-for-the-shutdow

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A congressional standoff over Affordable Care Act premium subsidies has triggered another government shutdown. John explains how we got here, why shutdowns aren’t effective policy tools, and what these recurring episodes reveal about budgetary and policymaking dysfunction in Washington.

Then, he turns to the Trump administration’s proposal to overhaul the H-1B visa lottery system by favoring higher-wage positions. John examines whether this could better align the temporary, nonimmigrant visa program with its statutory mission: filling high-skilled labor shortages in specialty occupations.

This conversation was recorded on Oct. 1, 2025.

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You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.