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In this episode, we dig into one of the biggest market questions hiding behind the hype around mega IPOs: what happens to passive index investors when companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public?

We ask why the VIX and major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq look calm, while single-name stocks like Tesla are showing much higher implied volatility, and why the spread between index volatility and individual stock volatility has reached extreme levels. Along the way, we break down the dispersion trade, implied versus realized volatility, and whether upcoming IPOs could force investors to rotate out of existing AI, tech, and “Elon trade” names to fund new allocations.

We also explore how changing index rules could reshape the market structure itself. Should a massive company like SpaceX be included quickly in the Nasdaq or S&P 500? How do float requirements, seasoning periods, profitability screens, and liquidity constraints affect ETF investors and passive funds that have to buy the underlying shares? We debate whether excluding these mega-cap IPOs would distort benchmarks, whether including them could create liquidity pressure, and how SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could change the relationship between passive investing, active stock picking, and index volatility.

Finally, we ask whether today’s market setup is starting to echo the dot-com bubble, with bullish sentiment, a low put/call ratio, AI enthusiasm, and a wave of high-profile IPOs creating both opportunity and risk. Are investors buying call options like lottery tickets? Could the arrival of new public AI and space stocks drain capital from the Mag Seven, Tesla, software, and private markets? And as AI infrastructure companies become publicly investable, we question whether the real winners will be the foundational LLM providers, the tech giants, or the next generation of startups built on top of them.

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No one is talking about the insane thing that's happened to Big Law partner compensation over the past decade — and how it stacks up against Wall Street.

In this deep dive we broke down EXACTLY what's going on. What started as an attempt to quantify how much Belle Burden's husband — from the cultural phenomenon Strangers — was actually earning during their marriage, after he left Davis Polk and landed at an equity long/short hedge fund, turned into a full-blown investigation: how Big Law and hedge funds really make money, what the compensation structures look like, and who actually comes out ahead.

We were positive we knew the answer. We were wrong.

Here's what we're not going to spoil — but here's what's on the table:

• One firm reportedly offered $80 million over three years to poach a single partner. That's not a typo. That's hedge fund money… for a lawyer.
• The top firms are clearing eight figures per partner — and we name them.
• The Financial Times has reported some hedge fund traders are being offered 9 figures comp packages but how does it vary roles by role, firm by firm and year by year,

We get into the lockstep model, the eat-what-you-kill brutality of the buy side, "two and twenty," and the math of who's really ahead at 25, at 35, at 45 — plus the quiet shift that flipped the entire game while almost nobody outside the industry was watching.

📩 The FULL breakdown, complete with financial model if you want to see play with key assumptions lives on our Substack: https://substack.com/@thewallstreetskinny

🎧 Our original breakdown of Strangers: https://youtu.be/3fbWStK44P0?si=N5Qif1UhVxz06i7l

🏛️ For the deal nerds — our Caesars Palace coup series: https://youtu.be/VKROBLck-RA?si=oF8tiwyuwvthXM26

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Two weeks ago, one of the most powerful women on Wall Street asked us to weigh in on Belle Burden's bombshell memoir: "Strangers". As two women who've lived and worked in every world this book touches — from raising three kids in New York City to working on Wall Street to growing up in Massachusetts and spending summers on Martha's Vineyard — we're uniquely positioned to read between the lines of a story that's been everywhere from Oprah to every video in your feed.

In this episode, we break down the full financial picture most coverage glosses over: the prenup that may have been the original sin of the marriage, the real numbers behind a Davis Polk associate's salary vs. a fund-of-funds partner's take, how much Belle's husband likely earned at Arden and Select Equity, the math on a $4M Tribeca apartment and a $5.4M Martha's Vineyard estate, and why "running up quicksand" is the only way to describe trying to build wealth on a W-2 in Manhattan if you don't have a wife who's heiress to a Vanderbilt fortune.

We also dig into the power dynamics — the resentment baked into the prenup negotiation, the "make me a sandwich" moment, the affair with a sell-side banker, and why the cheating partner in these stories is almost never really about the other person.

But here's where their take diverges sharply from Belle's own messaging: the real lesson isn't "know your finances" — it's something much harder.

We argue that no amount of financial literacy would have changed Belle's story.

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