Episodes

  • 38. Expected Value - Chapter 15 & Epilogue
    Dec 18 2025

    This is final episode of this season and the closing chapter in the Expected Value Story. In this episode, we look at the future of innovation. Innovation without adaptation is just novelty. The future belongs to those who can continuously evolve their innovation system.

    Over this season, we've followed Freya and her team as they've moved from good intentions and busy innovation to clearer decisions, better evidence, and real value. But no system ever stands still. The world keeps changing, and the real question becomes how do we change with it without losing what we've built?

    As we prepare to say goodbye to Freya, she is asked a simple but powerful question, what's next? And her answer isn't about more ideas or bigger bets. It's about building an organization that can keep learning, adapting, and creating value, even when the future refuses to behave.

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    1 hr and 4 mins
  • 37. Expected Value - Chapter 14
    Dec 17 2025

    In this episode we explore chapter fourteen from metrics to mindsets. Thus far in the story we have seen that the numbers look great. XV across the portfolio was strong. Strategic fit profiles were improving, kill decisions were happening faster, reallocations were smooth. On paper, Freya's innovation system was working exactly as designed. And yet something felt off.

    In this episode we explore what happens when an innovation system starts to become a performance, when confidence scores are given without doing the work, when learning is claimed without reflection, and when people walk through the beautiful structure you've built like it's a museum, admiring it but not living it.

    We'll follow Freya and Axel as they shift the focus from metrics to mindsets, recentering everything on real challenges that matter, using AI as a cultural sense-making tool, identifying cultural lead users who already embody the behaviors you want, and rewiring rituals so the organization celebrates realized value, not just innovation activity.

    If you've ever felt your dashboards look great, but your innovation culture is quietly drifting, this chapter is for you. It is about turning your system back into a tool, restoring truth over theatre, and closing the gap between expected and realized value.

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    1 hr and 1 min
  • 36. Expected Value - Act 4 Chapters 12 & 13
    Dec 16 2025

    In this episode, we move to Act 4, where the spotlight moves from frameworks to people. Freya's team can score ideas, prioritize bets, and balance the portfolio. But now they face the harder challenge, embedding innovation into the culture itself.

    We'll see how they bridge the gap between potential and performance, turning XV into realised value, and we'll explore the table of justice, a transformative way to judge decisions by evidence, not emotion.

    This is where innovation becomes lived, not just measured.

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    1 hr and 37 mins
  • 35. Expected Value - Chapter 11
    Dec 10 2025

    In this episode we step into chapter 11, learning loops and dynamic resourcing, where Freya discovers the fundamental truth at the heart of innovation performance. Namely, the value of an innovation is directly proportional to how much we learn from it, irrespective of whether it succeeds or fails.

    This chapter begins with tension. A major project is under scrutiny, the CFO demands evidence, and Freya realizes the team has been learning, but not showing the learning. What follows is a profound shift from reporting activity to reporting confidence, from fixed plans to dynamic resource allocation, and from rigid portfolios to living systems that adapt at the pace of evidence.

    We explore how Freya builds learning velocity, tracks X V deltas, reframes killed decisions, and introduces dynamic resourcing that moves money, talent, and attention to where learning is happening fastest.

    It's the moment where innovation stops being a bet and becomes a learning engine, and it sets the foundation for accelerating the journey from expected to realized value

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    1 hr and 6 mins
  • 34. Expected Value - Chapter 10
    Dec 9 2025

    In this episode, we explore chapter 10, Lines of Trust, which takes us beyond governance and into the invisible systems that make innovation work or fall apart. Freya and her team have built structure. The XV model, the fit radar, the S-curve, and a new three-tier governance system. On paper, it's perfect. But in practice, something's missing.

    When one small decision crosses an unseen line, Freya discovers what no framework can capture, that governance only works when people believe in the intent behind the decisions.

    This chapter explores how trust becomes the hidden infrastructure of innovation. We'll see how Freya learns to map the sensitivity lines that exist between people and functions like HR, finance, IT, legal, and how she builds a trust layer that connects structure to belief. It's a story about what happens when logic meets emotion, when process meets perception, and how the true power of innovation lies not in control, but in connection.

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    49 mins
  • 33. Expected Value - Act 3 Chapters 8 & 9
    Dec 2 2025

    This week's exclusive release from Expected Value, the system to prove, measure, and scale value. In this episode we enter Act 3, Total Portfolio Intelligence.

    Most organizations don't suffer from a lack of innovation, they suffer from a lack of innovation clarity. Ideas live in spreadsheets, sandboxes, and slide decks. Some get launched before they're ready, others never see daylight. But the real problem is this. Few organizations truly understand how all that activity adds up.

    Act three is where we make the shift from managing individual ideas to orchestrating a coherent innovation system, from counting experiments to building strategic insight, from interesting activity to strategic advantage.

    In this episode, we'll explore chapter eight, strategic layering, where Freya learns how to connect innovation directly to business strategy, risks, and efficiency, turning her portfolio into a living map of value. And in chapter 9, Portfolio Governance and Decision Rights, we see how she evolves from decision bottleneck to system architect, building a governance model that balances freedom with control and turns decision making into a measurable source of performance.

    This is where innovation becomes visible, governable, and scalable. This is total portfolio intelligence.

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    1 hr and 28 mins
  • 32. Expected Value - Chapter 7
    Nov 25 2025

    “Innovation doesn't happen in a vacuum. It happens in cycles”

    In this chapter, we're diving into one of the most powerful and often misunderstood forces shaping innovation performance, the S-curve. Innovation doesn't happen in straight lines, it happens in cycles. Technologies evolve, markets shift, and every idea follows a natural rhythm, from emergence to acceleration, to maturity and eventually decline. Understanding this rhythm changes everything. It explains why confidence fluctuates, why value grows and then stabilizes, and why timing can be the difference between leading a market and missing it entirely. In Surfing the S-Curve, we'll explore how Freya and her team connect the life cycle of innovation to the XV model, transforming it from a static formula into a dynamic living system. This is a chapter about movement, timing and foresight, because the real art of innovation isn't just creating something new, it's knowing when to let go, when to optimize, and when to jump to the next curve.

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    1 hr and 16 mins
  • 31. Expected Value - Chapter 6
    Nov 18 2025

    "Innovation without alignment is just novelty. Strategic alignment without innovation is just stagnation. The magic happens at the intersection."

    In the chapters so far, we've moved from understanding value to learning how to measure confidence and timing. Now, in this next chapter, Operationalizing Strategic Fit, we complete the picture. Because innovation isn't just about what's valuable or urgent, it's about what's right for your organization to pursue. This is where Freya and her team take the X V system to its next level, transforming a formula into a true decision framework.

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    57 mins