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Treasury Orange - Bitcoin Podcast

Treasury Orange - Bitcoin Podcast

Written by: Tyler Rowe
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Interviews of Leaders in the Bitcoin & Bitcoin Treasury Space, CEOs, Board Members, Bitcoin OGs and Influencers. If you're looking for Alpha, this is it.

Copyright 2025 All rights reserved. Economics Personal Finance Politics & Government
Episodes
  • BitcoinTreasuries.net: ”60% Of Treasury Companies Are UNDERWATER.” What Happens Next | Pete Rizzo

    BitcoinTreasuries.net: ”60% Of Treasury Companies Are UNDERWATER.” What Happens Next | Pete Rizzo
    Dec 18 2025
    🔥 Pete Rizzo (BitcoinTreasuries.net president) reveals 60% of Bitcoin treasury companies are underwater on their purchases. He predicts Strategy (MSTR) will hit 750K Bitcoin by end of 2026. The perfect warm up to MSTR True North on a Wednesday! In this Treasury Orange exclusive, the journalist who's covered Bitcoin for over a decade reveals: ✅ 60% of 100+ sampled treasury companies underwater on Bitcoin purchases (new data) 💰 Strategy prediction: 750K BTC by end 2026 (from current 650K) driven by digital credit 📊 "It's 2013 in Bitcoin businesses." 400 companies today, headed to thousands 🎯 ATM dilution model collapsed. Preferreds + digital credit are the future ⚡ Only 3-5 companies can afford to build preferred products (capital costs too high) 🚨 "Wall Street wants you to think Bitcoin IPO'd and it's over." Treasury companies break that narrative 💎 Jurisdictional land grab mostly over. Now it's about execution and operating businesses *THE DATA BOMB:* Pete's team at BitcoinTreasuries.net analyzed 100+ treasury companies' cost basis: "About 60% were underwater." If Bitcoin stays range-bound, these companies must innovate or die. Who survives? "Execution teams that can navigate markets." Strategy ends 2025 at ~670K Bitcoin. Pete predicts 750K-850K by end of 2026. How? "Digital credit products. He'll do 10-12 more 10K Bitcoin buys in 2026. Won't match 2025's pace but still massive." *TIMESTAMPS:* 00:00 Cold Open 00:59 Introduction to Pete Rizzo & His Coverage of Bitcoin's Story 04:03 Adoption of Bitcoin As Payments & Prevailing Store of Value Narrative 06:01 Corporate Adoption and the Future of Bitcoin 09:59 Bitcoin's Shift from Counterculture to Mainstream Finance 17:33 Which Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Will Win Out Next? 24:58 Navigating Financial Metrics and Data in Bitcoin Companies 29:07 The Yin and Yang of Individual and Corporate Bitcoin Ethos 34:18 XXI: Jack Mallers x Tether x Softbank Treasury Company 37:16 Block's (Square) Entrance Into ASIC Hardware Design 38:39 Preferred Equity Models and Market Sentiment 41:24 Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Projection For 2026 42:57 Where To Follow Pete & BitcoinTreasuries.net 43:52 Stay Orange *BEST QUOTES:* 💥 "60% of treasury companies we sampled were underwater on their Bitcoin purchases. If Bitcoin stays here, they have to do something interesting" 🎯 "Strategy will end 2026 around 750K Bitcoin. Digital credit products will drive 10-12 more 10K buys" 📈 "It's 2013 in Bitcoin businesses. 400 companies today, headed to 10,000-50,000 globally" 🏦 "Wall Street wants to sell you: Bitcoin IPO'd, it's digital gold, it's over. Treasury companies break that narrative" ⚡ "Only the strong will survive. Not everyone's going to win. Execution teams separate themselves" *WHY THIS MATTERS:* Pete Rizzo runs BitcoinTreasuries.net - THE definitive data source tracking 400+ corporate Bitcoin holdings globally. He's covered Bitcoin as journalist/historian for over a decade (CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine). His team provides real-time updates, advanced metrics (fully diluted shares, Bitcoin per share, MNAV), and monthly corporate adoption reports. This interview reveals exclusive data: 60% of treasuries underwater, capital costs preventing most from building preferreds, jurisdictional consolidation coming, and specific 2026 predictions. *MENTIONED:* MicroStrategy/Strategy (MSTR) - 660K Bitcoin, targeting 750K by end 2026 MetaPlanet - jurisdictional winner in Japan XXI - Jack Mallers, Tether, SoftBank Block/Square - ASIC mining chips, Jack Dorsey XCE UK - recruiting company treasury play Falcon Edge - active treasury management Coinbase - late to treasury game Digital credit products - only 3 companies today Preferred equity evolution *CONNECT WITH PETE:* 🌐 https://bitcointreasuries.net 🔔 X: https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_ 🔔 BTC Treasuries: https://twitter.com/BTCTreasuries 🎙️ Supply Shock Podcast: www.youtube.com/@SupplyShockBW *RELATED TREASURY ORANGE:* 📺 Matt Odell on MSTR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dW-U2JClko 📺 Rally Durham on why he sold ALL of his MSTR: https://youtu.be/J-aHzNMUDts 📺 Grain of Salt on why preferred equities are KING: https://twitter.com/TylerCompiler/status/1991318908255514920 📺 MSTR True North on WHY MSTR's USD Reserve Changed The Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u9jJPzd5Wo&t=282s 📧 tyler@treasuryorange.com | 🔔 https://twitter.com/tylercompiler 🎙️ https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange | TreasuryOrange.com 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #BitcoinTreasury #MSTR #Strategy #MicroStrategy #MetaPlanet #XXI #JackMallers #BitcoinTreasuriesNet #PeteRizzo #Block #DigitalCredit #Preferreds #TreasuryOrange ⚠️ Not financial advice
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    44 mins
  • Yves & Quentin From The One Chair Pod: Saylor’s $1.4B Cash Reserve for MSTR

    Yves & Quentin From The One Chair Pod: Saylor’s $1.4B Cash Reserve for MSTR
    Dec 11 2025
    🔥 Swiss Bitcoiners Yves and Quentin from the One Chair Pod debate whether Saylor's $1.4 billion USD reserve was BRILLIANT or common shareholder betrayal - plus deep dives on XXI's NYSE debut, MetaPlanet's preferreds, and Future (Switzerland). In this Treasury Orange exclusive, two of Europe's sharpest Bitcoin treasury analysts reveal: ✅ Why Strategy's $1.4B cash raise in 7 trading days was "a sign of strength" despite dilution 💰 MetaPlanet is "my favorite Bitcoin treasury at 1 mNAV." Why Japan's yield environment is perfect 📊 XXI (Jack Mallers) debuts with 43K Bitcoin - can they compete with Strategy's 660K? 🎯 Future (Switzerland with Adam Back) - why Swiss franc strength makes preferreds attractive ⚡ "Investing in treasuries above 2-3x MNAV is painful" - when to actually buy these stocks 🚨 Strategy should start selling cash-secured puts with their USD reserve (premium + cheaper Bitcoin) 💎 Block enabling Bitcoin payments for millions of merchants - adoption is gradual but coming *THE DEBATE:* Yves (Bitcoin maxi perspective): "Diluting the common to stack USD is not in shareholders' best interest. But Strategy had to show the market they'll do what it takes to pay preferreds no matter what. It's a narrative play." Quentin (pragmatic view): "Bitcoin per share went down this week, but long-term this makes preferreds way more attractive. They'll raise WAY more through preferreds now. Multiple times more accretive to common shareholders." Both agree: Strategy won't ever actually SELL Bitcoin. They have too many other options to raise capital first. *TIMESTAMPS:* 00:00 Intro To Yves & Quentin From The One Chair Podcast 01:25 The Strategy (MSTR) USD Reserve & Market Perception 07:36 Does It Ever Make Sense For Microstrategy To Sell Bitcoin? 09:23 Investment Considerations for Bitcoin Treasuries 15:27 Monetizing Bitcoin Holdings & Financial Strategies 22:36 XXI And The Competitive Bitcoin Treasury Landscape 29:08 MetaPlanet's Strategic Moves in Bitcoin Acquisition 33:18 Future: A Swiss Entrant Into the Bitcoin Treasury Space 35:45 Switzerland's Central Bank Rate Policy 38:51 Block's Merchant Services: Jack Dorsey's Adoption Push 41:39 Where To Find The One Chair Podcast 42:10 Stay Orange *BEST QUOTES:* 💥 "Strategy raised $1.4B in 7 days while Bitcoin is down 30% and stock is down massively. That's a sign of strength" 🎯 "If you're investing at 2-3x MNAV, that's painful. Close to 1.0 MNAV is a great entry point - especially blue chips like Strategy, Strive, MetaPlanet" 📈 "MetaPlanet is my favorite treasury company at these levels. They executed extremely well, learned from Strategy's mistakes" 🏦 "With USD reserve, Strategy should start selling cash-secured puts. Get premium + cheaper Bitcoin" ⚡ "XXI starts with 43K Bitcoin - impressive. But they need 600K more to compete with Strategy. What's the plan?" 🔥 "Japan is perfect for preferreds. Yield-starved environment. MetaPlanet can issue at lower yields than US products and still be attractive" *WHY THIS MATTERS:* Yves and Quentin run One Chair Pod, analyzing BTC treasuries from a European perspective. They provide the international view that complements US-focused analysis. Their mNAV framework is critical for investors: "Not all treasuries are equal. Blue chips (Strategy, Strive, MetaPlanet) at 1.0 MNAV are opportunities. Companies trading at 10-20x MNAV during the frenzy? Those hurt a lot of people." *COMPANIES DISCUSSED:* Strategy/MicroStrategy (MSTR) - $1.4B USD reserve, 660K+ Bitcoin, preferreds strategy XXI - Jack Mallers, 43K Bitcoin, NYSE debut, Strike integration MetaPlanet - Mercury & MARS preferreds launching January, Japan focus Future - Switzerland, Adam Back, Richard Byworth Strive (SATA) - Matt Cole's 12-month cash reserve model (founded by Vivek Ramaswamy) Block/Square - Jack Dorsey, Bitcoin merchant payments Strike - Bitcoin loans, potential public vehicle Tether - Paolo Ardoino project, tokenized USD stablecoin *CONNECT WITH ONE CHAIR POD:* 📺 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OneChairPod 🔔 Yves: https://twitter.com/GrafYves 🔔 Quentin: https://twitter.com/QuentinIsOnX *RELATED TREASURY ORANGE VIDEOS:* 📺 Matt Odell on MSTR Dilution: https://youtu.be/8dW-U2JClko 📺 Future (BTC Treasury w/ Richard Byworth): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xfo_P3mY48 📺 Strive CEO Matt Cole: https://youtu.be/8r21Ttd-DLY 📺 Grain of Salt on Prefs: https://twitter.com/TylerCompiler/status/1991318908255514920 📺 MSTR True North on USD Reserve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u9jJPzd5Wo 📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com 🔔 Tyler on X: https://twitter.com/tylercompiler 🎙️ Treasury Orange: Analyzing Bitcoin treasury companies w/ insider access | TreasuryOrange.com https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #MSTR #Strategy #MicroStrategy #BitcoinTreasury #MetaPlanet #XXI #JackMallers #Strike #OneChairPod...
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    43 mins
  • Matt Odell: ”Saylor Kept Diluting You” is The REAL Reason MSTR Crashed 70%

    Matt Odell: ”Saylor Kept Diluting You” is The REAL Reason MSTR Crashed 70%
    Dec 6 2025
    🔥 $200M Bitcoin VC Matt Odell reveals why Saylor kept diluting MSTR shareholders - and why treasury companies without cash flow are dead (except Strategy). In this Treasury Orange exclusive, the partner at Ten31 who's deployed over $200 million to Bitcoin businesses reveals: ✅ Why Saylor kept hitting the common even after saying he'd stop (FOMO runs deep) 💰 "Treasury companies without cash flow won't be the winners" - Block vs Strategy model 📊 Bitcoin-backed loans are "the best terms you'll get out of all lending" in 5-10 years 🎯 Why Strike is minting Bitcoin with loans at 50% LTV (no credit checks, 5-minute approval) ⚡ The coordinated attack on MSTR: JP Morgan, MSCI, short sellers, S&P ratings 🚨 "Bitcoin risk/reward is the best it's ever been" - Trump + ETFs de-risked everything 💎 How Ten31 funds profitable Bitcoin businesses that stack to treasury (not pure-play leverage) like Block / Square. *THE BRUTAL TRUTH:* Matt doesn't hold back on Strategy: "He was pretty aggressive smacking the common over and over. Then he's like 'I'm not gonna keep hitting the common.' Two weeks later: 'No, I'm gonna keep diluting you.'" As a Bitcoiner, Matt gets the FOMO. But for shareholders watching 70% drawdowns: "You can believe it's a good 5-10 year play AND also say 'I'm not holding through him diluting me. I'm selling now, buying back later once it's clear he's not gonna just keep hitting the common.'" *TIMESTAMPS:* 00:00 Cold Open 01:07 Introduction to Matt Odell & How He Views Capital Allocation 03:10 The Evolution of Bitcoin Startups 06:57 Balancing Profitability and Growth in Bitcoin Startups 09:42 The Bitcoin Treasury Phenomenon 14:01 Cash Flow Generation in Bitcoin Companies 17:21 The Importance of Bitcoin Payments For Merchants & Living On A Bitcoin Standard 19:40 Bitcoin-Backed Loans: Use Cases and Risks 26:46 Microstrategy's (Strategy's) Challenges & Market Sentiment 31:59 Bitcoin As A Safe Haven Asset 37:13 Bitcoin's Role in a Corruptible World 39:39 Where To Follow Matt's Projects 40:06 Stay Orange *WHY THIS MATTERS:* Matt Odell is a partner at Ten31, a Bitcoin-only capital fund that's deployed $200M+ across 35 companies including Strike (largest investment), Unchained, Start9. He founded OpenSATS (funding open source Bitcoin projects), Bitcoin Park (Nashville community hub), and is a renowned Bitcoin educator. This is the insider's view of what ACTUALLY wins in Bitcoin businesses: profitable cash flow + treasury stacking. Not pure-play financial engineering (except Strategy's first-mover advantage with 650K BTC). Matt thinks Microstrategy will be able to monetize their bitcoin eventually. Matt explains why Strike's Bitcoin-backed loans (50% LTV, no credit check, 5-min approval) will become the best lending terms available. Why Block's model (profitable + stacking) will outperform treasuries long-term. And why Saylor's aggressive common dilution - despite understanding the thesis - created the recent pain. *MENTIONED:* MicroStrategy/Strategy (MSTR) - 650K Bitcoin, dilution analysis | Block/Square - Jack Dorsey's model | Strike - loans, buy/sell, going public via SPAC | Unchained - Bitcoin lending | XXI - Jack Mallers' treasury play | Strive/ProCap - digital credit attempts | MetaPlanet, NAKA | JP Morgan - margin requirements | MSCI - index exclusion | FTX/Celsius/BlockFi - lender collapses | Tornado Cash/Samourai | BlackRock ETF | Trump administration *CONNECT WITH MATT:* 🔔 Personal: https://odell.xyz 🔔 Ten31 on X: https://twitter.com/Ten31funds *RELATED TREASURY ORANGE VIDEOS:* 📺 Soleil on Trading Options: https://youtu.be/qamyJhu0zvI 📺 Strive CEO Matt Cole: https://youtu.be/8r21Ttd-DLY 📺 Swiss Bitcoin Treasury: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xfo_P3mY48 📺 BPI Policy Insider: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIeSpsss4Mw 📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com 🔔 Tyler on X: https://twitter.com/tylercompiler 🎙️ Treasury Orange: Analyzing Bitcoin treasury companies with insider access | TreasuryOrange.com https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #MSTR #Strategy #MicroStrategy #MichaelSaylor #BitcoinVC #MattOdell #Ten31 #Strike #BitcoinLoans #BitcoinTreasury #Block #JackDorsey #Unchained #BitcoinStartups #TreasuryOrange #BitcoinInvesting ⚠️ Not financial advice - Educational content only P.S. The Bitcoin loan breakdown at 19:57 shows how Strike gets customers $1M loans in 5 minutes with just Bitcoin collateral. This changes everything for treasury investors with unrealized gains.
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    41 mins
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