In this episode, Mark Longo is joined by Dr VIX Russell Rhoads and Andrew Giovinazzi (The Rock Lobster) to conduct a "post-mortem" on 2025 and break down the surprising trends defining the start of 2026.

The team dives deep into the VIX/SPX correlation breakdown, exploring why the traditional inverse relationship failed many traders last year. Russell brings the hard data, revealing how 2025 nearly set a record for the highest inverse correlation—making diversification more difficult than ever.

Topics covered in this episode:

• Volatility Review: A look at the "yo-yo" week in the S&P and the recent firmness in VIX Cash.

• The Correlation Myth: Why "buying the dip" worked but "shorting vol" was a losing battle in 2025.

• VIX Term Structure: Analysis of the Jan/Feb futures and the 100% premium to realized volatility.

• VIX Options Flow: Breaking down the massive activity in Jan 17 calls and the persistent "magic" of the 15 puts.

• The Crystal Ball: The team places their bets for next week's VIX close and debuts their 2026 year-end predictions.

It is a New Year in the volatility markets! Host Mark Longo is joined by "Dr. VIX" Russell Rhoads and Mark Sebastian of Option Pit to break down a wild 2025 and peer into the crystal ball for 2026. From the "tariff tantrums" and "taper tantrums" of last year to the rise of 0DTE options and the recent "face ripper" ratio spreads, the team analyzes why the VIX median stayed elevated even without major explosive events. Plus, the moment you've been waiting for: we crown the 2025 Crystal Ball Hall of Fame winners and launch the official 2026 contest!

What's Inside this Episode:

• The Volatility Review: A deep dive into the 2025 "Mad Vol Year." Why was the median VIX so much higher than normal?

• The 0DTE Impact: How zero-day options are reshaping the term structure and long-dated premium.

• VIX Face Rippers: Russell breaks down the bizarre ratio call spreads hitting the tape and what they signal for January and April volatility.

• The Crystal Ball Hall of Fame: We announce the four winners who nailed the 14.95 year-end VIX close within 0.1pt.

• 2026 Predictions: The crew places their bets for the coming year. Can we see a sub-10 VIX, or will the midterms push us toward 17.76?

Key Timestamps:

• [00:00] Introduction and "Happy New Year" Cutoff Debate

• [07:15] 2025 Year-in-Review: The high of 60 and the 14-handle reality

• [15:40] The "Tariff Tantrum" and Fixed Income Volatility

• [22:10] Term Structure Analysis: Why the current curve is "poison" for ETP longs

• [31:45] Russell's Weekly Rundown: Explaining the "Face Ripper" trades

• [45:10] Crystal Ball 2025 Winners Revealed

• [52:30] 2026 Official Predictions & Closing Levels

Connect with the Guest Experts:

• Russell Rhoads: Follow on X @RussellRhoads

• Mark Sebastian: Visit OptionPit.com or follow on X @OptionPit

Support the Network: This episode is brought to you by Tastytrade. See why Investopedia named them the best broker for options in 2024. Visit tastytrade.com/podcasts to learn more.

Happy New Year, Vol Maniacs! Mark Longo kicks off 2026 by welcoming Jim Carroll (The Vixologist) to the first Volatility Views of the year. Jim helps us close the books on 2025. From the "Tariff Tantrum" to the birth of the proprietary "VIX Mix," we break down the trends, trades, and traps that defined the volatility landscape over the last 12 months.

• The Tariff Tantrum: Why April 2025 became the apex of volatility for the year, sending VIX cash to an intraday high near 60.

• VIX Cash Highlights: A look back at the 17.93 start in January and the contentiousness of the year-end 14.95 close.

• The "VIX Mix" Debrief: Jim Carroll breaks down the first full year of his 17-component composite indicator.

• Realized Volatility: Why 2025 saw a wider range of realized vol than 2024, yet remained "well-behaved" compared to 2022 or 2020.

• Credit Market Canaries: Why the Move Index and corporate bond behavior were the secret drummers for equity volatility this year.

• The 15 Put Trap: Why the VIX 15 put strike was the ultimate "scratch-off ticket" that never paid off for retail traders.

• The 47.5 Call Mystery: Analyzing the massive, recurring upside rolls that dominated the tape all year.

• Capital Efficiency: A look at the bizarre VIX 200 put spreads and the shifting of institutional volume from futures into options.

• The Vol Fade Game: Performance reviews of SVXY, VXX, and the opportunity to scoop SVX during the April dip.

The team kicks off the new year's prediction game. Will 2026 be the year of the 23.00 VIX?

• Follow Jim Carroll: Twitter/X: @vixologist

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• Twitter/X: @Options

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