This week packed more drama into four trading days than most months deliver.

Iran tensions escalate and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a real risk.
Oil surges nearly 7% in two sessions.
Gold hovers near $5,000.
The Fed reminds markets it’s not done.
PCE inflation runs hotter than expected.
GDP slows sharply to 1.4%.
Earnings beats get punished on weak guidance.

While equities focused on short-term rotations, commodities and bonds were voting on something much bigger: geopolitical risk and inflation permanence.

When oil spikes and gold holds $5,000, history suggests markets eventually respond.

This is your full February 16–20 weekend market breakdown.

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Blue Owl Capital just sold $1.4B of loans at 99.7 cents on the dollar — and permanently halted redemptions in its OBDC II private credit fund.

Not a fire sale.Not a collapse. But the gate is officially closed.

Private credit has exploded from $2T to over $3T in just a few years, with projections pointing toward $5T by 2029. The yields looked attractive. The distributions felt steady. But the liquidity mechanics were always there — in the documents, in the fine print, in the architecture.

This isn’t panic. It’s structure meeting reality.

In this video, we break down:
Why the 99.7¢ sale matters
What redemption caps really mean
The retail vs. institutional liquidity mismatch
Whether this is “cockroach” territory
How to size private credit properly

Truthbomb: The yield wasn’t the reward. It was the price of admission.

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Supreme Court just Killed Trumps tariffs and markets are not going to be happy. Mark Malek Breaks down the facts of what will happen to Wall Street and stocks, as a massive refund will need to be paid back to companies because of the illegal tariffs.

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Two U.S. carrier strike groups — including the USS Gerald R. Ford and the USS Abraham Lincoln — are moving into position.

Prediction markets are pricing a 62% probability of a U.S. strike on Iran. That’s not a headline. That’s capital making a bet.

So what happens to oil, inflation, the Fed, and your portfolio?

In this episode of Wall Street Truthbombs, we walk through three real scenarios:
• The 72-hour precision strike
• The multi-week oil disruption
• The stagflation tail risk
And more importantly — how to position using XLE, ITA, GLD, TIP, VYM, and SPY depending on how this unfolds.

The S&P has survived every geopolitical shock in modern history.
But survival favors preparation — not complacency.

Truthbomb: The most expensive position in your portfolio right now might be inaction.

#iran #war #usa #stockmarket

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Walmart’s earnings look “fine” if you only read the headline: revenue beat, EPS beat, comps beat, online sales surged. The stock even turns green. But the real story is buried inside the numbers—and in what Walmart’s CFO and CEO actually said.

Guidance missed meaningfully, yet the market refused to punish it. That’s not comfort… that’s dependence on a business that’s become the clearest real-time proxy for the bottom half of the K-shaped economy.

Here’s the Truthbomb:
The spending gap between high- and low-income households is widening
SNAP pullbacks hit low-income shoppers
Prices in general merchandise jumped
Tariffs are a headwind into Q1
And 75% of Walmart’s market share gains are coming from $100K+ households trading down

When rich people start shopping where poor people shop, it’s not because the economy is great. It’s because everyone is watching their wallet.

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The AI panic just erased nearly $2 trillion from software stocks.
But here’s the question nobody is asking: Are these companies actually broken… or is Wall Street mispricing the future?

After Anthropic’s Claude Cowork launch triggered “Software-mageddon,” investors stampeded out of enterprise software. ServiceNow. Salesforce. Intuit. Thomson Reuters. All hit indiscriminately.

But earnings tell a very different story.

In this episode of Wall Street Truthbombs, we break down:
Why the AI fear trade may be overdone
The difference between narrative risk and structural risk
Which companies actually benefit from AI
How valuation compression creates opportunity

Truthbomb: The most dangerous trade right now is assuming the sell-off is smarter than the fundamentals.

If you’re a long-term investor, this is where homework matters.

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There is a moment in every bidding war when discipline dies and ego takes over.

The fight for Warner Bros. Discovery has entered that phase.

With Paramount Pictures signaling a higher bid, and Netflix sitting on a signed agreement, this auction is no longer about value — it’s about winning.

History is clear:

• Acquirers overpay.
• Shareholders absorb the pain.
• Targets celebrate the premium.

From AOL & Time Warner…
To Hewlett-Packard & Autonomy…
To Quaker Oats Company & Snapple…

The academic evidence backs it up. The winner in a competitive auction is often the bidder who overestimates the asset the most.

Seven times leverage.
Declining linear TV economics.
Synergies built under emotional pressure.

Truthbomb: Winning this fight may be the most expensive mistake of the decade.

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Retail sales flat. Jobs revised down by 403,000. Inflation falls to 2.4%.
This week delivered the clearest “bad news is good news” signal we’ve seen all year. The economy is slowing — but not collapsing. Inflation is cooling. And the Fed now has a path to cut rates.

We break down:
The retail sales thud
The massive labor revision no one is talking about
Why CPI at 2.4% changes everything
Micron’s AI memory breakthrough
Software “Armageddon” and the AI infrastructure trade
Why Bitcoin is now the ultimate risk-on proxy

Goldilocks may be back — but markets are officially addicted to rate cuts.
Smash subscribe and stay ahead of the narrative.

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Truthbombs videos are for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed by Mark Malek or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Siebert Financial. These videos do not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Listeners and viewers should consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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