Music in the Air, Ten Years On: The Business Moves From Adoption to Monetization

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Music in the Air, Ten Years On: The Business Moves From Adoption to Monetization

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Ten years after streaming rebuilt the music business, the debate has shifted from adoption to monetization. A new long-term industry model — the first upward revision since 2022 — sees global music revenue growing from roughly $112B to about $198B by 2035. Alex and Jordan work through the three debates that will decide who captures it: subscription pricing (paid streaming revenue roughly doubles to about $33B, with pricing the un-modeled lever), the under-monetized free tier (better segmentation and a possible ad-light middle tier), and generative AI (scaled platforms look like relative beneficiaries; labels and rights holders face a more balanced risk/reward). Plus the emerging direct-to-consumer leg and superfan economics. The stock ideas that screen best in the framework: Spotify, Alphabet/YouTube, Sony, Live Nation, Tencent Music, NetEase Cloud Music and HYBE — own the distribution and the fan relationship, not just the catalog. The pure labels, Universal Music and Warner Music, screen as great assets but fully valued for what they are. Thesis: music is becoming the template for all media monetization — segmentation, pricing ladders, and superfans — and AI makes distribution more valuable, not less.

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