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At the Water's Edge

At the Water's Edge

Written by: WRKdefined Podcast Network
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The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.All rights reserved by WRKdefined Political Science Politics & Government
Episodes
  • Iran Is No Longer Just Surviving | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap

    Iran Is No Longer Just Surviving | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap
    Jun 8 2026
    This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. After 100 days of war, Pape argues that the conflict is no longer in its opening phase — but it is nowhere near over. Instead, the war has entered what he calls the middle of the escalation trap: a grinding phase where weeks of boredom can be punctuated by hours of terror. The key shift, according to Pape, is that Iran is no longer just trying to survive. Its ambitions are growing. In this episode, we discuss how Iran may be moving from survival toward dominance in the Persian Gulf, what that means for U.S. forces in the region, why the Red Sea could become the next major pressure point, and how financial markets may be underestimating geopolitical risk. Why the war has entered the middle phase of the escalation trap How Iran’s goals may be shifting from survival to ambition Why Iran may seek dominance in the Persian Gulf What it means for Iran to become a fourth center of world power Why the Red Sea could become the next major pressure point How Houthi threats to shipping could affect global oil markets Whether Iran could overplay its hand Why financial markets struggle to price geopolitical risk How the war could bookend the era of American unipolarity The longer this war continues, the more Iran’s ambitions may expand. This is no longer just about whether Iran survives. It is about what Iran may become if the escalation trap continues. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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    33 mins
  • Trump Thought Iran Would Collapse. He Was Wrong. | Trita Parsi

    Trump Thought Iran Would Collapse. He Was Wrong. | Trita Parsi
    Jun 5 2026
    President Trump thought Iran would collapse quickly. According to Dr. Trita Parsi, that assumption may be one of the central miscalculations that pulled the United States deeper into war. In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Dr. Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about the war with Iran, the limits of American coercion, and what a realistic diplomatic off-ramp would require. They discuss why Iran has proven more resilient than Washington expected, where Tehran may have miscalculated, how the U.S. policy process broke down, and why military superiority does not always translate into political control. The conversation also covers the Abraham Accords, Gaza, U.S. military presence in the Middle East, sanctions relief, and whether international humanitarian law can survive in a multipolar world. This is a practitioner-focused conversation about strategy, escalation, diplomacy, and the future of American power. Find more from Trita Parsi here: Trita Parsi’s Substack: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/Quincy Institute: https://quincyinst.org/
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    46 mins
  • Bombing and Talking at the Same Time | Robert Pape on Iran and the Escalation Trap

    Bombing and Talking at the Same Time | Robert Pape on Iran and the Escalation Trap
    Jun 2 2026
    This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. After two weeks of ceasefire claims, strikes, and renewed negotiations, Pape argues that the conflict is not moving toward real stability. Instead, the U.S. and Iran may be entering what he calls a new era of instability. Even if a memorandum of understanding is signed, the underlying issues remain unresolved: nuclear enrichment, Iran’s stockpiles, control of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and the U.S. military presence in the Gulf. Pape also warns that diplomacy does not necessarily mean the danger has passed. The U.S. has a long history of bombing and talking at the same time, from Vietnam to Bosnia, and troops in the region should not assume negotiations mean escalation is off the table. Why a possible memorandum of understanding may not change the trajectory of the conflict Why Trump remains stuck in the escalation trap How tactical military success can worsen America’s strategic position Why instability itself may benefit Iran What the oil inventory countdown means for the next 30–60 days Why the Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran’s leverage What would actually change the military reality for U.S. forces in the Gulf Why bombing and diplomacy can happen at the same time A deal is not the same thing as stability. Unless the underlying force posture changes, the war may remain trapped in a cycle of negotiations, skirmishes, oil pressure, and escalation. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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    28 mins
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