Episodes

  • Iran Is No Longer Just Surviving | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap

    Iran Is No Longer Just Surviving | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap
    Jun 8 2026
    This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. After 100 days of war, Pape argues that the conflict is no longer in its opening phase — but it is nowhere near over. Instead, the war has entered what he calls the middle of the escalation trap: a grinding phase where weeks of boredom can be punctuated by hours of terror. The key shift, according to Pape, is that Iran is no longer just trying to survive. Its ambitions are growing. In this episode, we discuss how Iran may be moving from survival toward dominance in the Persian Gulf, what that means for U.S. forces in the region, why the Red Sea could become the next major pressure point, and how financial markets may be underestimating geopolitical risk. Why the war has entered the middle phase of the escalation trap How Iran’s goals may be shifting from survival to ambition Why Iran may seek dominance in the Persian Gulf What it means for Iran to become a fourth center of world power Why the Red Sea could become the next major pressure point How Houthi threats to shipping could affect global oil markets Whether Iran could overplay its hand Why financial markets struggle to price geopolitical risk How the war could bookend the era of American unipolarity The longer this war continues, the more Iran’s ambitions may expand. This is no longer just about whether Iran survives. It is about what Iran may become if the escalation trap continues. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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    33 mins
  • Trump Thought Iran Would Collapse. He Was Wrong. | Trita Parsi

    Trump Thought Iran Would Collapse. He Was Wrong. | Trita Parsi
    Jun 5 2026
    President Trump thought Iran would collapse quickly. According to Dr. Trita Parsi, that assumption may be one of the central miscalculations that pulled the United States deeper into war. In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Dr. Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about the war with Iran, the limits of American coercion, and what a realistic diplomatic off-ramp would require. They discuss why Iran has proven more resilient than Washington expected, where Tehran may have miscalculated, how the U.S. policy process broke down, and why military superiority does not always translate into political control. The conversation also covers the Abraham Accords, Gaza, U.S. military presence in the Middle East, sanctions relief, and whether international humanitarian law can survive in a multipolar world. This is a practitioner-focused conversation about strategy, escalation, diplomacy, and the future of American power. Find more from Trita Parsi here: Trita Parsi’s Substack: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/Quincy Institute: https://quincyinst.org/
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    46 mins
  • Bombing and Talking at the Same Time | Robert Pape on Iran and the Escalation Trap

    Bombing and Talking at the Same Time | Robert Pape on Iran and the Escalation Trap
    Jun 2 2026
    This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. After two weeks of ceasefire claims, strikes, and renewed negotiations, Pape argues that the conflict is not moving toward real stability. Instead, the U.S. and Iran may be entering what he calls a new era of instability. Even if a memorandum of understanding is signed, the underlying issues remain unresolved: nuclear enrichment, Iran’s stockpiles, control of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and the U.S. military presence in the Gulf. Pape also warns that diplomacy does not necessarily mean the danger has passed. The U.S. has a long history of bombing and talking at the same time, from Vietnam to Bosnia, and troops in the region should not assume negotiations mean escalation is off the table. Why a possible memorandum of understanding may not change the trajectory of the conflict Why Trump remains stuck in the escalation trap How tactical military success can worsen America’s strategic position Why instability itself may benefit Iran What the oil inventory countdown means for the next 30–60 days Why the Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran’s leverage What would actually change the military reality for U.S. forces in the Gulf Why bombing and diplomacy can happen at the same time A deal is not the same thing as stability. Unless the underlying force posture changes, the war may remain trapped in a cycle of negotiations, skirmishes, oil pressure, and escalation. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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    28 mins
  • Former NASA Chief: America Has Lost the Meaning of Power | Iran, Artemis II & U.S. Decline

    Former NASA Chief: America Has Lost the Meaning of Power | Iran, Artemis II & U.S. Decline
    May 21 2026
    Former NASA Administrator and Secretary of the Navy Sean O’Keefe returns to At the Water’s Edge for a conversation about American power, strategy, space, war, and national identity. At a moment when the United States is confronting conflict with Iran while also advancing the Artemis program, O’Keefe explores a deeper question: what actually makes America powerful? Drawing on decades of leadership across NASA, the Navy, the Office of Management and Budget, academia, and the private sector, O’Keefe discusses why Artemis matters beyond symbolism, how commercial space is changing the future of exploration, what Ukraine’s battlefield innovation reveals about the future of war, and why America’s alliances and credibility may be among its greatest strategic assets. The conversation also examines the limits of military power, the danger of unclear objectives, the challenge of defense procurement, and whether the United States can still mobilize around ambitious national missions. This is a conversation about more than Iran, NASA, or the Moon. It is about whether America still understands the sources of its own power.
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    1 hr and 9 mins
  • The War That Ends American Dominance | Robert Pape on Iran

    The War That Ends American Dominance | Robert Pape on Iran
    May 19 2026
    The war with Iran may be more than another crisis in the Middle East. In this latest installment of The Escalation Trap, Robert Pape argues that the conflict is becoming a hinge event — almost the inverse of the 1991 Gulf War. Instead of demonstrating American military dominance, this war may be revealing the limits of U.S. power when tactical military strength no longer produces strategic outcomes. This conversation moves beyond the Gulf to examine what the war means for China, Taiwan, Europe, NATO, India, and the future of American influence. Pape explains why allies are beginning to rethink their assumptions, why America’s security umbrella may be weakening, and why this conflict could accelerate a broader shift in the global order. In this episode: Why the Iran war may be a hinge event for American power How this compares to the 1991 Gulf War Why military dominance may no longer translate into strategic success What Trump’s meeting with Xi could mean for Taiwan Why allies may begin making more independent security decisions How the war is affecting perceptions of U.S. credibility Why America may need a deeper strategy of economic modernization What to watch as the conflict continues Key takeaway: This is no longer just about Iran. It is about whether the post-Cold War era of unquestioned American military dominance is ending — and what comes next. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics, bridging academic theory with how conflict unfolds in the real world.
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    37 mins
  • Former NSC Official: The Iran War Exposed America’s Broken Strategy | Negah Angha

    Former NSC Official: The Iran War Exposed America’s Broken Strategy | Negah Angha
    May 7 2026
    Former State Department senior advisor and National Security Council official Negah Angha joins At the Water’s Edge to discuss what the war with Iran reveals about American strategy, alliances, and decision-making. Angha explains how major national security decisions are supposed to move through the U.S. government, why inconsistent objectives and poor consultation with allies can weaken American credibility, and how Iran’s pressure on the Strait of Hormuz has exposed vulnerabilities in the global economy. The conversation also covers low-cost drones, the limits of the U.S. defense industrial base, Congress’s role in war powers, the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the complicated role of diaspora communities in U.S. foreign policy. This episode is about more than Iran. It is a broader look at whether the American national security system can still align military power, diplomacy, alliances, public support, and long-term strategy in a crisis that moves faster than Washington’s bureaucracy.
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    51 mins
  • The U.S. Is Losing Control | Robert Pape on Iran, China, and the Escalation Trap

    The U.S. Is Losing Control | Robert Pape on Iran, China, and the Escalation Trap
    May 5 2026
    This is Part 7 of The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. This week, the Trump administration announced Project Freedom, an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by escorting ships through the waterway. At the same time, Iran is working with Pakistan and Turkey to expand overland trade routes, Hezbollah has increased drone attacks against Israel, and conflicting reports emerged over a possible encounter involving a U.S. warship. But according to Pape, the bigger picture is clear: The United States is losing control — not only in the Gulf, but across multiple regions at once. Why Project Freedom may mark a shift toward further escalation How Iran is using Pakistan and Turkey to work around the blockade Why U.S. credibility and influence are declining in multiple theaters What a loss of control in the Gulf could mean for Europe and Asia Why a future Trump-Xi meeting could have implications for Taiwan How the war with Iran may be reshaping the global balance of power Why escalation may now look like the only remaining option for Washington What to watch as the U.S. attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz This conflict is no longer confined to Iran, Israel, and the Gulf. It is becoming a test of American power — and the consequences may extend across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the global economy. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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    43 mins
  • Are We Already in World War III? Ukraine, Iran, and the New Global Conflict | Paul Poast

    Are We Already in World War III? Ukraine, Iran, and the New Global Conflict | Paul Poast
    Apr 29 2026
    Are the wars in Ukraine and Iran separate conflicts—or part of something larger? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Paul Poast, Associate Professor at the University of Chicago, to unpack his argument that we may already be living in a new era of “world war.” Rather than a 20th-century style global conflict, Poast explains how today’s wars can be defined by multiple interconnected theaters, where major powers compete indirectly across regions—and where decisions in one conflict shape outcomes in another. Read is NYT OPED: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/opinion/international-world/iran-ukraine-world-war.html The conversation explores: What actually defines a “world war” in today’s context How the wars in Ukraine and Iran are strategically connected Whether U.S. and Russian actions across theaters are a form of great power balancing The role of alliances—and why strained relationships may still hold How munitions shortages, oil markets, and second-order effects shape modern conflict Why policymakers may be “making it up as they go” in a rapidly evolving environment And why in a conflict like this, success may mean finding the least bad outcome, not outright victory This is a wide-ranging discussion on how to think about modern warfare, great power competition, and the risks of escalation in an increasingly interconnected global system.
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    1 hr and 5 mins