Credit union lending faces pivotal changes in 2026 as interest rates, inflation, and regulatory shifts reshape the landscape. In this episode of Credit Union Conversations, host Mark Ritter and MBFS COO Jeff Lyons make bold predictions about fed rate movements, treasury rates, and commercial lending growth. They discuss how rising delinquency rates may affect the industry and explore the NCUA's anticipated regulatory priorities, including oversight of AI and automation. From mortgage rates to commercial real estate refinancing opportunities, this Quick Hits episode delivers actionable insights for credit union leaders navigating an uncertain economic environment in the year ahead.

What You Will Learn In This Episode:

✅ How fed rate reductions and treasury rates will influence credit union loan pricing strategies and member borrowing costs throughout 2026

✅ Why commercial lending growth may slow, while commercial real estate refinancing opportunities emerge from distressed properties

✅ What regulatory priorities the NCUA will focus on, including delinquency management, loan loss reserves, stablecoins, and AI and automation policies

✅ How the housing market, unemployment rate, and inflation rate interconnect to shape the overall economic outlook for credit unions

Subscribe to Credit Union Conversations for the latest credit union trends and insights on loan volume and business lending! Connect with MBFS to boost your credit union’s growth today.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 2026 predictions episode discussing credit union industry forecasts and Fed rate and interest rates predictions, with expectations of rates dropping to 3-3.25%

01:42 Treasury rates and mortgage rates outlook, analyzing the impact on credit union lending and the housing market

03:10 Inflation rate forecast at 2.5% with discussion of tariffs and unemployment rate effects on economic stability

04:25 Commercial lending growth predictions and commercial real estate refinancing opportunities amid rising delinquency trends

06:29 Discussion of the NCUA board, the rising delinquency numbers, and the abuse of AI

10:15 Let’s talk football

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

✅ Federal Reserve leadership changes will drive fed rate policy toward 3% by year-end, creating refinancing opportunities for loans originated in 2024 at higher rates

✅ Rising delinquency rates will trigger stricter NCUA oversight on loan loss reserves and accounting practices, while AI and automation regulation emerges as a new compliance focus area

✅ Commercial real estate distress will create a "greater fool" refinancing market where credit unions can acquire loans at significant discounts after original lenders absorb losses

ABOUT THE GUEST:

Jeff Lyons - LinkedIn

RESOURCES MENTIONED:

Mark Ritter - Website

Mark Ritter - LinkedIn

SEO KEYWORDS:

Credit Union Conversations, Mark Ritter, MBFS, Credit Unions, CUSO, Credit Union Lending, Interest Rates, Inflation, Fed Rate, Treasury Rates, Commercial Lending, Delinquency, NCUA, AI And Automation, Mortgage Rates, Commercial Real Estate, Federal Reserve

In this episode of Credit Union Conversations, host Mark Ritter sits down with Gord Baizley, Co-Founder and CEO of Judi.ai, to explore why small business lending remains one of the greatest untapped opportunities for credit unions—and how technology is finally making it scalable.

Gord shares his unique career journey from law and investment banking to leading high-growth technology companies, including Judi.ai, a platform purpose-built to simplify and modernize small business lending. The conversation breaks down why small businesses are consistently underserved by traditional financial institutions despite representing a massive share of the economy—and why credit unions are uniquely positioned to close that gap.

Mark and Gord dive into the cultural, regulatory, and operational barriers that have historically slowed small business lending at credit unions. They discuss how outdated underwriting expectations, CRE-centric credit culture, and manual processes have made small business lending feel complex and costly. Gord explains how predictive AI, real-time cash flow data, and automation are reshaping underwriting—allowing credit unions to treat small business lending more like consumer credit cards than commercial real estate.

The episode also compares U.S. and Canadian banking systems, highlights the importance of executive buy-in, and reinforces why small business owners are “relationship unicorns” for credit unions—bringing deposits, loans, mortgages, and long-term loyalty.

This episode is essential listening for credit union leaders, lenders, and executives looking to grow relationships, diversify loan portfolios, and compete effectively with fintech lenders.

What You Will Learn in This Episode:

✅ Why small business lending should be treated as its own segment, not lumped into consumer or commercial lending.

✅ How predictive AI and real-time cash flow data can dramatically reduce underwriting friction and improve risk management.

✅ What’s holding credit unions back from small business growth, and how to move it higher on the strategic priority list.

✅ Why small business owners are among the most valuable long-term relationships a credit union can build.

Subscribe to Credit Union Conversations for the latest credit union trends and insights on loan volume and business lending! Connect with MBFS to boost your credit union’s growth today.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Welcome to Credit Union Conversations: Gord Baizley’s career journey: law, finance, and tech

03:05 What Judi.ai does and why small businesses are underserved

04:03 Predictive AI vs. generative AI in lending

06:00 Banking in Canada vs. the U.S.

08:43 Why credit unions focus on CRE instead of small business

09:22 Rethinking risk: small business vs. consumer credit

10:15 Automation, open banking, and real-time cash flow data

13:32 Regulatory shifts supporting cash flow lending

14:33 Ideal credit unions for small business growth

16:45 Treating small business as its own segment

17:27 Why small business owners are “relationship unicorns”

19:10 The biggest barriers to getting started

21:00 Executive buy-in and strategic ownership

23:00 The future outlook for credit unions

25:12 How to connect with Gord and Judi.ai

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

1. Small business lending is a relationship growth engine, not just a loan product.
2. Credit unions often apply the wrong risk lens to small business lending.
3. Technology has removed the...

Credit union predictions take center stage as Mark Ritter hosts Jeff Lyons on Credit Union Conversations to review their 2025 forecasts. The MBFS leaders analyze their interest rate forecasts, NCUA board changes, and tariff-negotiation predictions with a candid self-assessment. Throughout this engaging review, they explore Federal Reserve rate cuts, consumer lending trends, commercial lending stability, and the challenges facing credit unions in the auto loan market as vehicle prices surpass $50,000. They examine the accuracy of housing market forecasts and the outcomes of budget deal negotiations, while acknowledging mixed results in their prognostication.

WHAT YOU WILL LEARN IN THIS EPISODE:

✅ How NCUA board changes and Supreme Court cases continue to impact credit union regulatory oversight, with the FTC lawsuit setting precedent for future administrative decisions affecting the credit union industry.

✅ Why the auto loan market faces unprecedented challenges as average new vehicle prices exceed $50,000, causing consumers to hold vehicles longer and fundamentally shifting credit union business strategies.

✅ The accuracy of inflation predictions and credit card delinquency forecasts, including how CPI data at 2.7% contradicts consumer experiences of rising costs in everyday purchases.

✅ How commercial lending stability diverged from consumer lending trends in 2025, creating a bifurcated lending environment that requires different strategic approaches for credit unions.

Subscribe to Credit Union Conversations for the latest credit union trends and insights on loan volume and business lending! Connect with MBFS to boost your credit union’s growth today.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Mark Ritter and Jeff Lyons review their year-end credit union predictions for 2025 and discuss their accuracy

00:38 NCUA board changes discussion covering the firing of Democratic board members and predictions about Supreme Court cases impacting regulatory authority

01:33 Interest rate forecasts review, revealing they missed by 25 basis points and tariff negotiations analysis examining how tariffs became a negotiating tool

07:07 Auto loan market and consumer lending trends, highlighting the average cost of a vehicle and the lending environment affecting credit union business

09:06 Discussion of credit card debt to be determined in February and March, and some football talk: Penn State and Rutgers

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

💲Tariff negotiations proved to be primarily a negotiating tool rather than a permanent policy, with initial concerns about widespread economic impact diminishing by year-end as countries eagerly negotiated with the U.S., validating the prediction that tariff discussions would fade from headlines.

💲Budget deal negotiations successfully extended and codified existing tax rate extensions rather than allowing rates to sunset, demonstrating how political necessity drives compromise even in divided government scenarios. However, healthcare insurance rates remain unresolved heading into the new year.

💲Housing market forecast accuracy was mixed as hot markets experienced price corrections while other areas remained stable.

ABOUT THE GUEST:

Jeff Lyons - LinkedIn

RESOURCES MENTIONED:

Mark Ritter - Website

Mark Ritter - LinkedIn

SEO KEYWORDS:

Credit Union Conversations, Mark Ritter,