Five days out and we've got your election night watch list, from Amy Acton in Ohio to Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, plus we dig into why the polls don't agree much at all rn.

Brian and Glennis are closing out this INSANE midterm cycle with the races they're watching: Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, James Talarico in Texas, Jon Ossoff in Georgia, the House seats Democrats can flip, and the Wisconsin legislature. Brian explains how one race can poll within one point and ten points at the same time, and why big early-vote turnout makes this electorate so hard to model. Glennis's ask for the final stretch: text everyone you know and confirm they have a voting plan.

In Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy's ad against Amy Acton is still splitting Republicans. Thomas Massie's impeachment resolution against Pete Hegseth comes up when the House returns November 9, and new reporting says Hegseth is eyeing an appointment to Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat if she wins the Tennessee governor's race. Plus a Vanity Fair book excerpt alleging Dutch intelligence watched Jared Kushner's phone (Kushner denies it), and why a GOP leaning on billionaires instead of small donors has a 2028 problem.

This week's Oath Candidate of the Week is Oath's Max Impact Slate: last-minute money for campaigns still working to reach every voter before Tuesday.

Also: Glennis defends the Cheesecake Factory from Barack Obama, Michigan voters on cost of living, and a Clickbait or Double-Click on the 42 of 46 swing districts where incomes haven't kept pace with costs and a New York Times/Siena poll showing 70% of young voters identify as or lean Democratic. We close with a Good Vibe Goodbye: an appeals court declined the Justice Department's emergency bid to set aside 20,000 California ballots.

New political updates, check-ins, and deep dives every Thursday morning.

EPISODE RESOURCES/LINKS

The Oath Candidate of the Week: https://app.oath.vote/donate?p=mx

Clickbait or Double-Click: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6172310-trump-aoc-comments-democrats/

Clickbait or Double-Click: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/27/costs-basics-climbed-faster-than-wages-battleground-house-districts/

Clickbait or Double-Click: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/22/upshot/young-voters-polls-midterms.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Good Vibe Goodbye: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/25/doj-appeals-court-california-ballot-fight-01134996

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