Episodes

  • Geographic Feature: Germany's Energy Transition

    Geographic Feature: Germany's Energy Transition
    Jan 27 2026

    Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, January 27, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Germany. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. GERMANY: Europe's largest economy navigating a complex energy transition. Renewables now supply 52% of electricity. Target: 650 GW by 2040. Industrial electricity price cap at 5 euro cents/kWh from 2026. Nuclear gone April 2023. Coal phase-out by 2038. The scale of capital deployment creates opportunities in hydrogen, renewables, and grid infrastructure. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com
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    3 mins
  • Geographic Feature: Namibia's Orange Basin

    Geographic Feature: Namibia's Orange Basin
    Jan 26 2026

    Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 26, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Namibia. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. NAMIBIA: Africa's next oil frontier. The Orange Basin is delivering world-class discoveries. TotalEnergies Venus estimated at 5.1 billion barrels in place. Shell's Jonker at 2.5 billion barrels. Total basin: 11 billion barrels oil plus 9 Tcf gas discovered. The challenge: high gas-to-oil ratios complicate economics. Watch TotalEnergies' late 2026 FID on Venus. For energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com
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    3 mins
  • Weekly Recap: Decoupling Executes

    Weekly Recap: Decoupling Executes
    Jan 23 2026

    Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 23, 2026 — Weekly Recap. Week four of 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened Monday at $59.39, bounced to $60.50 mid-week, then collapsed to $59.33 Friday (-1.96%). Brent in low $63s. IEA: 3.8M bpd surplus 2026. EIA: +3.6M bbl BUILD vs draw expected. Ukraine-Russia peace talks pricing in sanctions relief. Kazakhstan exports easing. Crude is trapped. NATURAL GAS: Historic week. Henry Hub EXPLODED 70% to highest since 2022. Brutal cold snap: Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast. Demand 128.7 Bcf/d vs 119.8 prior. Freeze-off risks. Weather-driven, not structural. Take profits near $5, add on pullbacks to $3.50-$4.00. THESIS: Short crude, long gas on pullbacks. Decoupling executes. For institutional energy opportunities: energymarkets@protonmail.com
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    4 mins
  • Strategic Positioning: Don't Chase

    Strategic Positioning: Don't Chase
    Jan 22 2026
    Thursday, January 22, 2026. WTI bounces to $60.67 after IEA glut report. Natural gas explodes to $5.06 on cold snap. Why you shouldn't chase either move.
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    4 mins
  • EMD104 - Market Update: IEA Confirms Glut

    EMD104 - Market Update: IEA Confirms Glut
    Jan 21 2026
    Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 21, 2026 — Market Update. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI fell to $59.50 per barrel, down 1.3%. Brent tracking lower near $63. Geopolitical tensions easing but tariff fears clouding demand outlook. Kazakhstan halted output at two large oilfields temporarily but effect subsided. US crude inventory build expected weighing on prices. OPEC forecasts demand growth 1.4 million bpd in 2026, sees market balanced. OPEC+ pumped 42.83 million bpd in December. IEA released report today projecting supply exceeds demand by 3.84 million bpd in 2026. Major divergence between OPEC balance view and IEA glut view. Our thesis: believe the glut. Prices trading above Goldman and EIA forecasts of $52-56. Mean reversion coming. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub surged to $3.94, up 0.8%. Cold snap delivering. Storage at 3,185 Bcf as of Jan 9, down 71 Bcf week over week. Still 106 Bcf above five-year average. EIA projects $3.46 average for 2026, $3.38 Q1. JP Morgan $3.85 Q1. Enverus $3.80 winter. BMI $3.90 for 2026. Current price above forecasts on cold weather demand. Structural bull case intact. Buy the dips. **CATALYST WATCH:** IEA report released today. EIA Petroleum Status Report Thursday Jan 22. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude glut confirmed by IEA. Gas catching bid on cold weather. Trade the decoupling. Short crude rallies, long gas dips. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: Strategic Positioning.
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    3 mins
  • EMD103 - Technicals: Levels That Matter

    EMD103 - Technicals: Levels That Matter
    Jan 20 2026
    Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, January 20, 2026 — Technicals. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS:** WTI trading near $59.50. Key support levels: $59.25, $59.10, then $58.37 at 38.2% Fibonacci and 100 SMA. Deeper support at $57.88 (50% retracement), $57.40 at channel bottom and 200 SMA. Ultimate floor at $55, the 2025 lows. Resistance levels: $60.05, $61.08, then key resistance at $62 which aligns with 200-period SMA. Break above $62 targets $66. Trading within ascending channel, uptrend intact. Stochastic showing exhaustion, buyers losing steam. RSI approaching neutral 50. Geopolitics and inventory data driving near-term direction. **NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS:** Henry Hub testing support. Key psychological support at $3.00. If $3.00 fails, next support $2.99, then $2.77. Resistance at $3.499, $3.634. Break above resistance triggers short-covering rally toward 50-day MA at $3.987 and 200-day MA at $4.254. January high near $3.60 just under 200-day EMA at $3.62. Pivot zone $3.62-$3.65. Cold snap forecast Jan 20-24 may provide temporary support at $3.00. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude in ascending channel but buyers exhausted near resistance. Gas testing $3.00 floor with cold weather support. Trade the levels. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday: Market Update.
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    3 mins
  • EMD102 - Strategic Positioning: Week Four

    EMD102 - Strategic Positioning: Week Four
    Jan 19 2026
    Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 19, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $59.44, up 0.4%. Brent hovering near $63. Post-geopolitical spike stabilization. Last week's Iran fears faded. Venezuela back online. Surplus thesis intact. OPEC+ stuck between defending price floors and volume strategy. Most forecasts agree on surplus conditions 2026. IEA warning of possible super-glut if OPEC+ and rivals keep adding supply. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent $56, WTI $52 for 2026 average. EIA same: Brent $56, WTI $52. We're trading above forecasts—mean reversion coming. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub at $3.12, down from $3.16 Friday. Storage at 3,185 Bcf, 106 Bcf above 5-year average. Draw last week only 71 Bcf vs 146 Bcf 5-year average—warm weather killed demand. Europe storage 57-58% full vs 70% seasonal norm—bullish US LNG exports. Cold snap hitting now through Jan 20. This is the buy zone. Weather dips are entries, not exits. **CATALYST WATCH:** MLK Day today—markets closed. IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. EIA Petroleum Status Jan 22. Cold snap Jan 18-20 peak. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude range-bound, surplus looms. Gas weather dip loaded. Decoupling continues. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Technicals.
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    3 mins
  • EMD101 - Weekly Recap: Geopolitical Fade Confirmed

    EMD101 - Weekly Recap: Geopolitical Fade Confirmed
    Jan 16 2026

    Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 16, 2026 — Weekly Recap. Week of Jan 12-16. **CRUDE OIL:** Wild week. WTI opened at $58.79, spiked to $62 mid-week on Iran tensions, now back to $59.22. Brent similar pattern—peaked near $66.50, back to $63.63. Geopolitical premium evaporated. Trump comments eased Iran strike fears. Venezuela resumed exports. EIA showed rising US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC demand forecast 1.38 million bpd growth for 2026. IEA still divergent at 860K bpd. Supply forecasts: IEA 108.6 mb/d, OPEC 106.5 mb/d, EIA in between. Thesis confirmed: geopolitical spikes are selling opportunities. Surplus intact. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub at $3.16, up from $3.12 mid-week. Futures slid 10% on reduced LNG flows. Feb contract at $3.12. Storage draw only 71 Bcf versus 146 Bcf 5-year average—warm weather impact. Working gas at 3,185 Bcf, 106 Bcf above 5-year average. But cold snap coming Jan 18-20, coldest days of the month. Enverus projects $3.80 winter average. 33 LNG vessels departed US ports last week. Thesis holds: weather volatility is noise. LNG structure intact. **NEXT WEEK CATALYSTS:** IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. EIA Petroleum Jan 22. Cold snap Jan 18-20. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude geopolitical fade confirmed. Gas weather dip loaded. Decoupling executes. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Monday: Strategic Positioning.
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    3 mins