The global economy is being set right up for a brutal summer, according to the latest incoming data. Manufacturing is up right now, but the faster it goes today the worse it is going to be in the coming months. Services, the majority of the economy, are starting to get crushed – Europe, for example, it just set a 62-month low. This is the same general setup as last year which fed right into job losses, contracting incomes, rising unemployment...and more Pringles.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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SPG US PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8bdf1bb2dddf420e9c0e9d7e22f75c09

SPG EZ PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/89d5df92554f42589275c1d9ddb5fde3

SPG Japan PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f65b1852016d49a5abde92a6b742f9bc

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European consumer sentiment is in "free fall", in the European govt's own words. DHL’s CEO warned the world is heading for a quote tipping point – in other words, the race against time. Economic sentiment just crashed. Unemployment in places like Scandinavia has jumped while in the UK job losses have returned alongside the appearance of one of the worse labor market outcomes, the dropout.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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DHL CEO Warns of ‘Tipping Point’ Risk If Oil Shortage Persists
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/dhl-ceo-warns-of-tipping-point-risk-if-oil-shortage-persists

European Union Flash Consumer Confidence April 2026
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/11ffc7fa-f14b-4ed7-a44c-2e45fa85fec5_en?filename=Flash_consumer_2026_04_en.pdf

German Investor Outlook Drops to Worst Since 2022 on Iran War
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/german-investor-outlook-drops-to-worst-since-2022-on-iran-war

Germany Halves 2026 Growth Forecast After Hit From Iran War
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/germany-halves-growth-forecast-for-2026-after-hit-from-iran-war

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Countries REALLY don't want to go to DC and ask for a dollar swap line. One nation just did (according to WSJ) and it is one of the most critical redistribution centers in the eurodollar system. While the usual suspects go on about "dedollarization" and petroyuans, over here in the real world the consequences from lack of oil flow include a shortfall of dollars as much as oil.

Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis

U.A.E. Asks U.S. About a Wartime Financial Lifeline
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-a-e-asks-u-s-for-a-wartime-financial-lifeline-3f9ea3a0

Qatar Warns of ‘Huge’ Economic Fallout From War in Coming Months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-15/qatar-warns-of-huge-economic-fallout-from-war-in-coming-months