While Blue Owl’s blowup exploded the private credit mess back into the mainstream with yesterday’s first confirmation of Stage 2, there had been some building pressures in the monetary system leading up to it. Including a seemingly out of nowhere surge in borrowing from the Fed’s repo facility on Tuesday, a whopping $30 billion spike. And that’s not even the biggest part of this.

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Credit Crisis Stage 2 has been observed. Stage 1 is when money flows out of a bubble but is roughly still balanced meaning some uncomfortable fund managers but no big consequences like forced selling. Stage 2 is when that balance unbalances leading to bigger problems like forced selling. Today, we got confirmation of forced selling for the first time...and a LOT more.

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Blue Owl Halts Redemptions on Private Credit Retail Fund
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-18/blue-owl-loan-sale-raises-1-4-billion-for-investor-payouts

Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors
https://www.ft.com/content/b2f299f6-2a82-4a43-bcbf-86cac3937550

Blue Owl BDC Allows 17% Redemptions as Investors Storm Exit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/blue-owl-bdc-allows-for-17-redemptions-as-investors-storm-exit

Stock market volatility has been moving higher since Christmas Eve as this undercurrent of anxiety refuses to go away. Some of it is AI related, sure, but deep down there is this nagging feeling the economy isn’t turning the corner like they all said it would. So where do you go to find clues whether or not that has been the case. A perfect place to start is global bellwether Switzerland – which just confirmed it is in recession.

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After another month of even more deeply troubling banking data from China, S&P is wondering if the Chinese may be facing their Japanification moment as a key central bank rate just moved to a record low. Now, I don’t think they’re facing it; China is clearly there and the latest data confirms as much. The time scale is different, but when you’re talking about the biggest banks in the world – and the top four are all Chinese – you have to pay attention.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Existing home sales utterly crashed in January. Yes, January is not a great month for real estate shopping and there was obviously less than ideal weather, however those don’t explain the 8.4% plunge in transactions. Analysts who were already factoring those other excuses only thought there would be a modest impact from them, not the biggest monthly drop in housing in four years. So much for that supposedly strong payroll report.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider

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NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 8.4% Decrease in January
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-8-4-decrease-in-january

Household Debt and Credit Report
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html

Where Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most?
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/where-are-mortgage-delinquencies-rising-the-most/

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We really, really messed up the jobs data the past few years, we got it almost completely wrong, but trust us, we’re good now. That’s what the BLS is saying today about its estimates for jobs and employment and right now no one is buying it. Why should they? The agency screwed up so badly it now admits there were 1.03 million fewer payrolls as of December than it previously thought. One million fewer payrolls.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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The UK’s Prime Minister is hanging on for his career after a series of missteps has his own labor party almost in revolt. The current crisis was triggered by an ill-advised appointment of an ambassador to the US who is caught up in the Jeffrey Epstein mess. But that’s not really the issue. Once again, a government that came to power not even two years ago finds voters who can’t wait to throw it out of office.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Starmer banks on economic growth to 'rebuild Britain'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clll8d2vd8yo

Why UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an election he’s expected to lose
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/24/uk/prime-minister-rishi-sunak-election-intl

UK Opinion Polls
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls

New UK prime minister Rishi Sunak warns ‘difficult decisions to come’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-warns-difficult-decisions-to-come-as-he-assumes-office

UK General election 2024 Results
https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/results

How unpopular is Britain’s Labour government?
https://www.economist.com/interactive/2025-british-politics

Europe's leaders are deeply unpopular
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/10/europe-leadership-crisis-starmer-macron-merz

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Authorities in China are advising Chinese banks they need to seriously consider changing up their bond market allocations right now. Citing concentration risk as well as the possibility for volatility, regulators are supposedly trying to prevent depositories from buying bonds. If this sounds familiar, it should since the PBOC did something similar in the summer of 2024. But in this case, the asset being targeted isn’t local.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

China Urges Banks to Curb Exposure to US Treasuries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/china-urges-banks-to-limit-holdings-of-us-treasuries-citing-market-volatility

Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries Climbed to Record in November
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/foreign-holdings-of-us-treasuries-climbed-to-record-in-november

Dollar Global Transaction Use Jumps to New High, Swift Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/dollar-global-transaction-usage-jumps-to-new-high-swift-says

PBOC Says No Longer in China’s Interest to Increase Reserves (2013)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-11-20/pboc-says-no-longer-in-china-s-favor-to-boost-record-reserves

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