The model stays hot as we break down UFC Vegas 113, coming off a 4–1 week and a 10–3 start to the year (76.9%).

With no title fights on the horizon for several weeks, this episode focuses on finding value in matchups, not names. We dive into three key fights on the card, including a potential live underdog, and explain why certain favorites are playable only as props or parlay pieces.

Fights covered:

• Cong Wang vs Eduarda Moura
• Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat
• Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira (main event deep dive)

We also touch on the importance of discipline during hot streaks, and how to approach betting during this quieter stretch of the UFC calendar.

As always, the breakdowns are stat-driven, conversational, and built around xR% and matchup context — not hype.

Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full breakdowns on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on VSiN's UFC Betting podcast, First Strike.

New episode out now — let the numbers do the work.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC Vegas 113

02:50 Analyzing the Fight: Cong Wang vs. Eduarda Moura

06:15 Breakdown of Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat

08:54 Main Event Analysis: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira

10:19 Betting Strategies and Insights

12:10 Conclusion with Model Betting Process

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment.

Follow Bobby on all social media platforms:
@TheRobbeo

And make sure to subscribe here and on YouTube so you never miss an episode!

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card

01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence

09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting.

Follow me on social media!
X: @TheRobbeo

Instagram: @TheRobbeo

TikTok: @TheRobbeo

And make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card.

FightNumbers.substack.com

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast

03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis

08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong

12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet

18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts