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Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

Written by: Rob Moreno
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About this listen

Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk.


Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines.
Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week.


New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

2026 Rob Moreno
Episodes
  • UFC Vegas 113 Betting Preview: Bautista vs Oliveira | Fighting with Numbers Ep. 29
    Feb 4 2026

    The model stays hot as we break down UFC Vegas 113, coming off a 4–1 week and a 10–3 start to the year (76.9%).

    With no title fights on the horizon for several weeks, this episode focuses on finding value in matchups, not names. We dive into three key fights on the card, including a potential live underdog, and explain why certain favorites are playable only as props or parlay pieces.

    Fights covered:

    • Cong Wang vs Eduarda Moura
    • Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat
    • Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira (main event deep dive)

    We also touch on the importance of discipline during hot streaks, and how to approach betting during this quieter stretch of the UFC calendar.

    As always, the breakdowns are stat-driven, conversational, and built around xR% and matchup context — not hype.

    Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full breakdowns on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on VSiN's UFC Betting podcast, First Strike.

    New episode out now — let the numbers do the work.

    Chapters

    00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC Vegas 113

    02:50 Analyzing the Fight: Cong Wang vs. Eduarda Moura

    06:15 Breakdown of Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat

    08:54 Main Event Analysis: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira

    10:19 Betting Strategies and Insights

    12:10 Conclusion with Model Betting Process

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    18 mins
  • UFC 325 Betting Predictions: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 | Fighting with Numbers
    Jan 28 2026

    In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment.

    Follow Bobby on all social media platforms:
    @TheRobbeo

    And make sure to subscribe here and on YouTube so you never miss an episode!

    Chapters

    00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card

    01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

    04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence

    09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

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    15 mins
  • UFC 324 Betting Preview: Gaethje vs Pimblett | Fighting with Numbers
    Jan 22 2026

    In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting.

    Follow me on social media!
    X: @TheRobbeo

    Instagram: @TheRobbeo

    TikTok: @TheRobbeo

    And make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card.

    FightNumbers.substack.com

    Chapters

    00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast

    03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

    05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis

    08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong

    12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet

    18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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    20 mins
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