The model stays hot after a 5–1 week, moving to 20–5 (80%) on the year, but UFC Mexico might be one of the lightest betting cards we’ve seen all season.

In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, we break down four key fights from UFC Mexico, headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh, and explain why discipline matters more than ever on thin-value cards.

We dive into:

• Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho (and why the data is distorted)
• Ailín Pérez vs Macy Chiasson (tight numbers, low confidence)
• Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green (a shocking spot?)
• Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh (main event caution flag)

This week’s theme: protect the bankroll, don’t force action, and let the edges come to you.

As always, the breakdowns are built around xR%, striking differentials, grappling control, and real matchup context — not hype.

Follow Rob on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full write-ups on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on the First Strike podcast from VSiN (Also available on Youtube).

Hot start or not — we bet smart, not loud.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Weekly Update

01:25 Preliminary Fights Analysis

09:23 Main Event Discussion and Predictions

In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, Rob Moreno previews UFC Houston, discussing the card's matchups, analyzing fighters' statistics, and emphasizing the importance of betting discipline. He breaks down key fights, including the main event between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez, while addressing the challenges of limited data and the significance of strength of schedule in fight analysis.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC Houston Preview

02:43 Analyzing Early Fights on the Card

08:15 Diving into Key Matchups

10:36 Strength of Schedule and Its Impact

16:25 Main Event Breakdown: Strickland vs. Hernandez

20:41 Final Thoughts

The model stays hot as we break down UFC Vegas 113, coming off a 4–1 week and a 10–3 start to the year (76.9%).

With no title fights on the horizon for several weeks, this episode focuses on finding value in matchups, not names. We dive into three key fights on the card, including a potential live underdog, and explain why certain favorites are playable only as props or parlay pieces.

Fights covered:

• Cong Wang vs Eduarda Moura
• Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat
• Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira (main event deep dive)

We also touch on the importance of discipline during hot streaks, and how to approach betting during this quieter stretch of the UFC calendar.

As always, the breakdowns are stat-driven, conversational, and built around xR% and matchup context — not hype.

Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full breakdowns on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on VSiN's UFC Betting podcast, First Strike.

New episode out now — let the numbers do the work.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC Vegas 113

02:50 Analyzing the Fight: Cong Wang vs. Eduarda Moura

06:15 Breakdown of Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat

08:54 Main Event Analysis: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira

10:19 Betting Strategies and Insights

12:10 Conclusion with Model Betting Process

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment.

Follow Bobby on all social media platforms:
@TheRobbeo

And make sure to subscribe here and on YouTube so you never miss an episode!

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card

01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence

09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting.

Follow me on social media!
X: @TheRobbeo

Instagram: @TheRobbeo

TikTok: @TheRobbeo

And make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card.

FightNumbers.substack.com

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast

03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis

08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong

12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet

18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

This week on Fighting with Numbers, I break down the UFC Vegas 107 card with a data-driven look at the fights — including the main event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber. Get model predictions, finish probabilities, and betting insights to help you find value across the card. If you’re looking to bet smart, not emotional, this episode has you covered.

Follow and Subscribe!

http://x.com/TheRobbeo

http://robbeo.substack.com

Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

http://elevate-audio.com

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:46 - Kurt Holobough vs Jordan Leavitt

07:52 - Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho

13:23 - Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson

20:27 - Matuesz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein

27:38 - Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber

Join host Rob Moreno in the latest episode of "A Better Mind Podcast" as he explores the dynamic worlds of UFC and tennis betting with guest Britton Hess. Discover the surprising parallels between these sports, Britton’s journey from television to sports gambling, and the pivotal role of daily fantasy sports in shaping his approach.

Gain valuable insights into effective sports betting strategies, including the importance of strength of schedule, live betting opportunities, and the pitfalls of high-risk parlays. Delve into the evolving UFC betting landscape and the crucial role in-fight betting plays in maximizing potential gains.

Follow Rob Moreno on social media @TheRobbeo for more updates and subscribe for enlightening conversations on "A Better Mind Podcast."

And follow Britton Hess on Twitter/X @BrittonHess.

Plus check out his UFC weekly write ups at VSiN.com

The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.

Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.

💥 Full breakdowns, xR% comparisons, and betting confidence grades.

📊 Read the full model report at FightNumbers.Substack.com

If you enjoy the episode, subscribe, rate, and drop a comment to support the show — and follow me on X and Instagram @TheRobbeo for fight-week updates.