This week on Relative Return, AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver breaks down one of the most controversial federal budgets in years - from sweeping changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, to what it all means for inflation, interest rates, housing, and business confidence.

Shane says the budget is effectively adding more stimulus into an economy already struggling with inflation pressures, warning it could make the Reserve Bank's job harder and increase the likelihood of another rate hike later this year.

The conversation dives deep into the winners and losers of the budget, with first-home buyers, shares, super and commercial property tipped as relative beneficiaries, while property investors, startups and growth businesses could face new challenges.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Olivia Grace-Curran sits down with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver to unpack the Reserve Bank's latest rate hike, the inflation outlook, geopolitical risks and what it all means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile environment.

Oliver says the RBA's third consecutive rate hike reflects growing concern that inflation could become entrenched, particularly amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the continued closure risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. While he believes rates are either at or near their peak, he expects at least one more hike could arrive later this year before cuts begin in 2027.

• Oliver warns a prolonged blockage of the Strait could trigger a more severe stagflationary shock for Australia and the global economy.
• Australia's heavy reliance on imported fuel exposes broader vulnerabilities in national energy security and supply chains.
• The Australian dollar has strengthened as the RBA continues tightening while other central banks remain on hold.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford speaks with AMP chief economist Shane Oliver about the March quarter CPI figuresand what it means for interest rates, households and markets.

Shane breaks down how the impact of headline inflation jumping to 4.6 per cent over the year to March, largely driven by a surge in fuel prices linked to the US–Iran conflict, and the likelihood that the RBA moves to hike rates at its May meeting.

Tune in to hear:

• Whether the RBA is better off acting now, or if the prior hikes could cause a pause.
• How the ongoing US-Iran war and its shifting ceasefire deadlines is feeding into further inflation.
• The impact of the AI boom and US tech giants powering US profit growth on markets.