This week on Relative Return, AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver breaks down one of the most controversial federal budgets in years - from sweeping changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, to what it all means for inflation, interest rates, housing, and business confidence.

Shane says the budget is effectively adding more stimulus into an economy already struggling with inflation pressures, warning it could make the Reserve Bank's job harder and increase the likelihood of another rate hike later this year.

The conversation dives deep into the winners and losers of the budget, with first-home buyers, shares, super and commercial property tipped as relative beneficiaries, while property investors, startups and growth businesses could face new challenges.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Olivia Grace-Curran sits down with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver to unpack the Reserve Bank's latest rate hike, the inflation outlook, geopolitical risks and what it all means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile environment.

Oliver says the RBA's third consecutive rate hike reflects growing concern that inflation could become entrenched, particularly amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the continued closure risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. While he believes rates are either at or near their peak, he expects at least one more hike could arrive later this year before cuts begin in 2027.

• Oliver warns a prolonged blockage of the Strait could trigger a more severe stagflationary shock for Australia and the global economy.
• Australia's heavy reliance on imported fuel exposes broader vulnerabilities in national energy security and supply chains.
• The Australian dollar has strengthened as the RBA continues tightening while other central banks remain on hold.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford speaks with AMP chief economist Shane Oliver about the March quarter CPI figuresand what it means for interest rates, households and markets.

Shane breaks down how the impact of headline inflation jumping to 4.6 per cent over the year to March, largely driven by a surge in fuel prices linked to the US–Iran conflict, and the likelihood that the RBA moves to hike rates at its May meeting.

Tune in to hear:

• Whether the RBA is better off acting now, or if the prior hikes could cause a pause.
• How the ongoing US-Iran war and its shifting ceasefire deadlines is feeding into further inflation.
• The impact of the AI boom and US tech giants powering US profit growth on markets.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack the approaching federal budget against a backdrop of weak productivity and mounting geopolitical risk.

Shane outlines the Treasurer's three-pronged agenda – savings, productivity reforms, and tax changes – while warning that genuine reform could be derailed by populist, short‑term cost‑of‑living measures.

Tune in to hear:

• Why the tax mix needs to be reset to have a greater focus on GST and less on income.
• The importance of a long-term view versus short-term fixes to address cost of living pressures.
• Where the US–Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption stands.

Australia's commercial property market continues to adjust to changing lending conditions, creating a renewed focus on the role commercial real estate debt plays in diversified portfolios.

In this episode of Relative Return, the discussion explores how commercial real estate debt is being actively used by advisers and wholesale investors seeking capital stability, income resilience and diversification within portfolios.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver break down the economic fallout from the ongoing US–Iran conflict and the second layer of blockade stopping oil from flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oliver explains the downstream impacts of an extended conflict, how long Australia can continue before stringent restrictions on petrol would need to be implemented, and whether a fire at one of Australia's two remaining oil refineries will further compound the issue.

Tune in to hear:

• What the government may be targeting for next month's budget.
• Whether the strong unemployment result will drive a rate hike at the May RBA meeting.
• Why markets seem unconcerned about Trump applying pressure to the Fed's independence.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack the messy US–Iran–Israel conflict, Trump's latest TACO backdown, and what the fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz disruptions mean for oil prices and investors.

They also explore how billionaire windfalls, housing-driven wealth inequality and gas-export profits are feeding political backlash against liberal democracy, and why Australia needs holistic tax reform – covering gas taxes, GST, bracket creep and spending – rather than more policy tinkering.

Tune in to hear:

• How markets are reacting to the fragile ceasefire.
• The worsening state of wealth inequality.
• Why holistic tax reform is needed rather than a piecemeal approach.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford is joined by AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina to take a look at the latest inflation figures and whether there is anything useful to learn from the pre-Iran war figures.

She explains that while February data suggested inflation had been peaking before the conflict, the coming months are likely to tell a very different story as energy prices ripple through the economy.

Tune in to hear:

• Whether the potential of stagflation needs to be a bigger concern.
• What to expect from future inflation figures with higher oil prices baked in.
• How the government may respond to growing pressure for broader tax reform.