The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introooo

(01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions

(03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire

(07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals

(10:05) - G2 vs Multipolar Debate

(12:17) - Should China Pressure Iran

(15:57) - Global South Stakes and Bagels

(18:34) - China Strategic Patience Rebuttal

(32:03) - What China Offers the World

(34:40) - Yuan Push and Middle Kingdom

(36:54 China Whiffing the Moment

(38:50) - China Constraints First

(39:34) - Disciplining Iran Debate

(41:29) - Multipolarity Versus Bipolar

(43:08) - Iran Strikes UAE Update

(45:33) - Ceasefire And Escalation

(49:12) - Oil Inventories Supply Hole

(51:15) - Markets Ignore War Risk

(53:15) - AI Capex Takes Over

(56:09) - Energy Inequality And Supply Chains

(58:37) - Trump Priorities And Timeline

(01:02:08) - Rebuilding After US Backstop

(01:05:42) - Pandemic Shifted China Views

(01:09:47) - Propaganda And Cultural Hegemony

(01:14:55) - NBA Riffs And Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - After Dark

(00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter

(03:01) - From Sports to Iran

(03:36) - Oil Shock Signals

(05:46) - Ceasefire and Storage

(10:06) - Demand Destruction Debate

(13:48) - Trump Narrative and Blame

(18:04) - Cold War Framing

(19:27) - China Pressure and Pakistan

(33:11) - UAE Leaves OPEC

(36:30) - Cartels and Oil Math

(40:00) - Saudi Price Warfare

(41:06) - OPEC Share Debate

(41:53) - UAE Saudi Rift Risks

(42:49) - Why OPEC Can Undercut

(46:12) - Putin Polls Warning

(48:56) - Russia Pivot Playbook

(55:06) - KD Leadership Analogy

(01:01:06) - Panama Canal Signaling

(01:07:12) - Canada Wealth Fund Plan

(01:15:00) - Wrap Up and Playoffs

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston

(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter

(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game

(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory

(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters

(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity

(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm

(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit

(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks

(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox

(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America

(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate

(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines

(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage

(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines

(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table

(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation

(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand

(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks

(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent

(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning

(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy

(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro