This weekly research highlight offers a comprehensive global economic outlook for 2026, finding that the overall constructive backdrop supports global risk assets despite various regional challenges. The report contrasts the outlook for the UK economy, which is expected to experience a difficult year marked by political instability, high fiscal risks, and low 1% GDP growth forecast, with the Nordic economies, which show emerging bright spots supported by strong domestic demand and significant tax cuts. Analysis of the Asia-Pacific region points toward a coming "job-lite" expansion due to weakening labor demand and shrinking working-age populations, while the study notes that the international role of the renminbi remains limited outside of trade settlement. Although the US core inflation is anticipated to move close to the Fed’s target by late 2026, tariff-related costs may cause a temporary acceleration early in the year. Ultimately, the firm advises investors to overweight US equities and emerging market local-currency debt, anticipating yield curves to steepen globally.

Get the critical insights from our Key Themes publications as we break down the major economic forecasts for 2026. This episode explores the predicted US exceptionalism amid fragmentation, where the economy is expected to outperform consensus expectations and continue to reap the benefits of increases in AI spending. We discuss how this growth will occur alongside a potentially jobless expansion.In stark contrast, we examine the outlook for the Eurozone, which is forecast for dull growth as ambition meets reality. We explain why the Eurozone will not benefit from the tech investment surge seen in the US and how the Second China shock will increasingly define European policy.Finally, we turn to Latin America, where economies are expected to lose momentum next year as domestic demand weakens. We analyze the impact of slower trade, the risk posed by sticky services prices, and why fiscal-sustainability concerns will persist as most 2026 budgets won't stabilize debt ratios.Tune in to understand the key themes—from the USMCA renegotiation to the focus of central banks on growth in LatAm—that will shape the global economy next year.

In this week's macroeconomic forecast round, we analyze the impact of the expected end of the US government shutdown on GDP and assess the revised effective tariff rate following the recent US-China trade deal. We also delve into the complex legal hazards of seizing frozen Russian assets, and—supported by strong Q3 earnings—explain why we remain overweight on global equities while affirming short positions on the British Pound and Japanese Yen.