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Will New Zealand house prices rebound to their 2021 peak, or are we in for a prolonged flat cycle? In Episode 27 of New Zealand Property Insights, hosts Paul and Debbie Roberts unpack ASB’s latest housing outlook, which projects national home values will not return to 2021 peak levels until at least 2029. They examine what flat growth in 2026 and a 3.5% lift in 2027 mean for buyers, how disposable income multiples have dropped from 9.8x to 6.7x, and how a proposed 5% deposit scheme could impact first-home buyer demand.

Next, they explore the ongoing structural shift in non-bank mortgage lending. Featuring insights from XCEDA CEO Daniel McGrath and BaseCorp CFO John Moody, Paul and Debbie explain why non-bank lending is moving from a fallback option to a proactive strategy for self-employed borrowers, property flippers, and investors needing approvals within 24 to 48 hours.

Finally, they break down fresh Realestate.co.nz rental figures to determine whether national asking rents have officially hit a floor. With the national average asking rent reaching $637 per week (+1.5% YoY), they analyze major regional variations—from strong gains in Marlborough (+8.2%) and Waikato ($587/wk record) to drops on the West Coast (-6.5%)—and reveal why pushing for a $10–$20 weekly rent increase can cost landlords up to $1,400 in vacant downtime.

What You'll Learn in This Episode:

• ASB Price Forecast: Why house prices are expected to remain flat through 2026 before rising 3.5% in 2027, and why a 2029 peak recovery is positive for long-term market stability.
• Income-to-Price Multiples: How house price-to-disposable income ratios dropped to 6.7x (down from 9.8x in 2021), helping first-home buyers capture nearly 30% of sales.
• Proposed 5% Deposit Rule: How raising income caps to $300,000 for couples could accelerate first-home buyer entry.
• Non-Bank Lending Tactics: How writing clear application narratives enables specialist lenders to approve complex scenarios (bridging, self-employed, property additions) in 24–48 hours.
• Rental Market Floor: Why asking rents act as a leading indicator, and how provincial cashflows in Canterbury, Otago, and Waikato are supporting local rental gains.
• Tenant Retention vs. Vacancy Costs: Why keeping reliable tenants and avoiding 2–3 weeks of vacancy easily outweighs aggressive rent hikes in an adjusting market.

Free Educational Masterclass & Resources

Ready to build a resilient, data-backed property portfolio without sales pressure or developer hype? Join financial adviser Debbie Roberts live for our free online training session: How to Succeed with Property Investing.

• 100% Independent Education (Property Apprentice does NOT sell real estate)
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• 👉 Register Free Here: propertyapprentice.co.nz

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. We recommend seeking advice from a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

*Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.