In this episode of Inside the Rope, host David Clark and Tom Oryl dive straight into the rapidly evolving private credit sector alongside Raghav Khanna, Co-CIO of Oaktree's Private Credit Wealth Products. As high-profile defaults like the Bathla collapse make local headlines, sophisticated investors are left questioning where real yield ends and structural fragility begins. Raghav breaks down how Oaktree - a firm renowned for its Howard Marks-driven risk discipline and expertise in distressed credit, is analysing current market dislocations, evaluating risk premiums, and underwriting through macroeconomic noise.

Key Takeaways:

• Navigating Market Stress: Analysis of recent defaults and broader systemic concerns in non-bank direct lending.

• Evaluating the Risk Premium: How Oaktree approaches credit selection when yield spreads tighten across public and private markets.

• Distressed Opportunities: Insights into how historical credit cycle management shapes today's deployment of wealth capital.

• Portfolio Positioning: Practical frameworks for insulating private debt allocations against liquidity bottlenecks and credit deterioration.

  This podcast has been delivered to you by Koda Capital Pty Ltd (ABN 65 166 491 961 AFSL 452 581) (Koda) and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. To the extent this material does contain any general advice, it has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs, and because of this, you should, before acting on it, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation, and needs.

  This material may include data, research, and other information from third party sources. Koda makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete, or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions, and beliefs of Koda. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed on them.

  Koda’s Financial Services Guide (FSG) can be found here: https://kodacapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Koda-Capital-FSG-Version-8.8-September-2026.pdf or we can email a copy on your written request.

  
  

Host David Clark chats with Dr. Joanna Syroka of Fermat Capital Management to unpack the structural capacity deficit hitting traditional insurance markets and how Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) are stepping in to bridge the gap.

As massive systemic shifts push loss potential beyond traditional balance sheet limits, capital markets are proving essential in underwriting modern risk.

The conversation explores the burgeoning market for mega-scale AI data center campuses, where concentrated values reaching up to $30 billion require novel risk-transfer structures.

The discussion then turns to the virtual concentration of risk in cyber insurance, where digital centralisation mirrors real-world coastal exposure and how forward-thinking issuers are leveraging catastrophe bonds to manage systemic contagion.

Finally, Dr. Syroka outlines how sovereign nations are building "financial fortresses" through contingent capital, highlighting how ex-ante disaster risk management enabled Jamaica to receive a credit rating upgrade from Moody’s despite suffering a major GDP shock.

Key Takeaways:

• AI Infrastructure & Insurance Capacity: Multi-billion-dollar AI data center campuses are creating unprecedented risk concentrations that exceed traditional insurance balance sheets, paving the way for ILS and capital market solutions.

• Cyber Risk Centralisation: Cloud centralisation creates digital "Miamis" susceptible to systemic global malware shocks, forcing cyber underwriters to tap catastrophe bond markets for alternative capacity.

• Sovereign Risk Transfer: How pre-arranged contingent financing and cat bonds allow sovereign nations to protect national budgets, maintain fiscal stability, and avoid post-disaster credit downgrades.

This podcast has been delivered to you by Koda Capital Pty Ltd (ABN 65 166 491 961 AFSL 452 581) (Koda) and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. To the extent this material does contain any general advice, it has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs, and because of this, you should, before acting on it, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation, and needs.

This material may include data, research, and other information from third party sources. Koda makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete, or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions, and beliefs of Koda. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed on them.

Koda’s Financial Services Guide (FSG) can be found here: https://kodacapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Koda-Capital-FSG-Version-8.8-September-2026.pdf, or we can email a copy on your written request.

Key Takeaways

Host David Clark sits down with Gary Hui, Portfolio Manager at Geometrica, to unpack how equity investors can consistently generate asymmetric, double-digit returns without relying on leverage. Active managers often struggle with crowded consensus, cognitive bias, and unpredictable market drawdowns - particularly when navigating disruptive thematic shifts like AI capex or sector-wide sell-offs. Gary breaks down Geometrica’s systematic search process, which pairs quantitative machine learning with deep fundamental diligence to spot structural change before it gets priced in.

The conversation delves into the mechanics of their barbell strategy: combining dislocated recovery plays like Netflix and ResMed with exponential growth compounders like Celestica and Fujikura. Gary also offers a candid, post-mortem analysis of July’s sharp market drawdown, examining factor risk, prime brokerage leverage unwinds, and the hard lessons that led to refining their risk models. Designed for sophisticated investors who demand rigorous logic over market noise, this conversation provides actionable insights on avoiding left-tail risk and capitalising on market inefficiencies.

• Systematic Search vs. Idea Generation: Why relying on traditional idea generation limits you to your current corpus of knowledge, and how machine learning screens surface high-conviction, non-consensus opportunities like AppLovin.

• The Long/Short Barbell Strategy: Harvesting alpha from two distinct inefficiencies, market dislocations (oversold sentiment) and exponential growth (underestimated structural change).

• Dissecting Market Overreactions: Real-world case studies in causality, including Netflix’s post-COVID subscriber dip, ResMed’s GLP-1 scare, and current dynamics in software and real estate networks.

• Anatomy of a Forced Liquidation: A look into how volatility spikes in VaR models trigger prime brokerage deleveraging, and why factor risk modeling is critical to avoid overstaying momentum trades.

• Intellectual Independence: How applying rigid logic, inspired by Spinoza’s geometric proofs, helps systematic fundamental managers protect compounding capital and mitigate left-tail events.

This podcast has been delivered to you by Koda Capital Pty Ltd (ABN 65 166 491 961 AFSL 452 581) (Koda) and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. To the extent this material does contain any general advice, it has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs, and because of this, you should, before acting on it, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation, and needs.

This material may include data, research, and other information from third party sources. Koda makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete, or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions, and beliefs of Koda. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed on them.

Koda’s Financial Services Guide (FSG) can be found here: https://kodacapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Koda-Capital-FSG-Version-8.7-September-2025.pdf, or we can email a copy on your written request.