We break down a market that’s pushing higher—but maybe not for the reasons you think. From Middle East tensions to shifting AI investment trends, we look at what’s changed and what hasn’t. We also unpack whether this rally has real strength behind it, or if it’s being driven more by short covering than true participation. Plus, updates on oil markets from Alpine Macro and BCA.

Then we’re joined by Michael Harper of Peachtree Group to dig into a real estate market going through a major reset. With rates higher and banks pulling back, we explore the growing opportunity in private credit—especially in hotels and multifamily. We cover where the stress is, where the long term demand still looks strong, and how groups like Peachtree are stepping in as a “white knight” to provide capital in a dislocated market.

As always, we focus on what matters for investors—cutting through the noise to find where the real opportunities are emerging.

Markets may be stabilizing, but the signals aren’t confirming a true bottom. In this episode, we break down what’s really driving stocks in the near term and why the long-term outlook still leans bullish.

We share insights from Matt Gertken and feature a deep dive with Ed Clissold on the market bottoming process, the psychological phases of a bear market, and how monetary policy is shaping the road ahead. Plus, we cover persistent inflation pressures, fiscal policy concerns, and rising geopolitical risks in oil—including the growing threat to the Strait of Hormuz and the case for a new commodity supercycle.

Markets are at a crossroads—are we heading into a recession or just seeing a bear market rally? We break down key signals, from typical pre-bear conditions to how earnings behave in downturns, and what $100 oil could mean for investors.

Then Matt Gertken joins us to discuss the Iran conflict, warning that while tensions may ease short term, the risk of a major oil shock remains high. With conflicting global objectives and an 80–90% chance of recession or stagflation if oil spikes, the economic stakes are significant—even if things cool for now.