We break down a market that’s pushing higher—but maybe not for the reasons you think. From Middle East tensions to shifting AI investment trends, we look at what’s changed and what hasn’t. We also unpack whether this rally has real strength behind it, or if it’s being driven more by short covering than true participation. Plus, updates on oil markets from Alpine Macro and BCA.

Then we’re joined by Michael Harper of Peachtree Group to dig into a real estate market going through a major reset. With rates higher and banks pulling back, we explore the growing opportunity in private credit—especially in hotels and multifamily. We cover where the stress is, where the long term demand still looks strong, and how groups like Peachtree are stepping in as a “white knight” to provide capital in a dislocated market.

As always, we focus on what matters for investors—cutting through the noise to find where the real opportunities are emerging.

Markets may be stabilizing, but the signals aren’t confirming a true bottom. In this episode, we break down what’s really driving stocks in the near term and why the long-term outlook still leans bullish.

We share insights from Matt Gertken and feature a deep dive with Ed Clissold on the market bottoming process, the psychological phases of a bear market, and how monetary policy is shaping the road ahead. Plus, we cover persistent inflation pressures, fiscal policy concerns, and rising geopolitical risks in oil—including the growing threat to the Strait of Hormuz and the case for a new commodity supercycle.

Markets are at a crossroads—are we heading into a recession or just seeing a bear market rally? We break down key signals, from typical pre-bear conditions to how earnings behave in downturns, and what $100 oil could mean for investors.

Then Matt Gertken joins us to discuss the Iran conflict, warning that while tensions may ease short term, the risk of a major oil shock remains high. With conflicting global objectives and an 80–90% chance of recession or stagflation if oil spikes, the economic stakes are significant—even if things cool for now.

In this episode, we explore how two competing worldviews Biblically based thinking and Humanism—shape not only culture but also long-term economic and societal trends. We discuss how America’s founding principles were deeply rooted in a biblical framework, influencing ideas around individual responsibility, morality, and governance.

From there, we contrast Humanism, which centers on human reason and autonomy, and examine how these differing philosophies impact major “mega trends” like demographics, population growth, and policy decisions. Using historical examples—including Paul Ehrlich’s failed predictions of catastrophic overpopulation—we highlight how worldview assumptions can lead to very different conclusions about the future.

Drawing on the principle of “know your enemy,” we emphasize the importance of understanding opposing perspectives in order to navigate today’s complex landscape.

Middle East tensions are driving uncertainty across oil, markets, and the global economy. We break down the gap between current and future oil prices, risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and how escalating U.S. involvement—alongside differing goals with Israel and potential Gulf participation could impact markets.

We also cover slowing GDP, rising inflation pressures, and key signals from interest rates. Finally, we focus on what it means for investors—avoiding recency bias, staying disciplined, and aligning strategy with long-term goals.

War in the Middle East is rattling the global economy—and the markets are taking notice. In this episode, we examine how the conflict with Iran could trigger an oil shock and what it may mean for stocks, inflation, and economic growth. We also explore the rising risk of stagflation as energy and food prices climb, and how supply shocks can push inflation higher while slowing the economy. Finally, we discuss the broader backdrop of rising U.S. debt, the “Fourth Turning” framework shaping today’s geopolitical tensions, and tactical strategies investors may consider as volatility increases.

In this episode, we cover the latest geopolitical and economic risks, market trends, and infrastructure opportunities shaping the U.S. and global economy. We discuss the potential impact of the Iran conflict on oil and energy markets, including the Straits of Hormuz, global supply, and U.S. strategic reserves. We break down current market dynamics, including sector rotations, sideways trading, and comparisons to the dot-com era. Plus, Michael Underhill joins us to explain the infrastructure catch-up, three major investment waves in energy, transportation, and digital systems, the AI-driven surge in power demand, the tech spending arms race, and why we’re only in the early innings of a long-term investment cycle.

Markets are churning through a rotational correction as sentiment runs hot and breadth improves, but risks loom from elections and oil, with crude near $70 and geopolitical tensions in focus. We break down the potential AI and infrastructure boom, inflation trends in housing, labor, and energy, and what a falling dollar means for prices. Plus, why we prefer tactical money management in this environment.