In this month's live update, we explain why 2026 is likely to be a tougher year for housing before conditions start to improve.

Sales remain near multi-decade lows as trade tensions, slowing growth, and rising geopolitical risks weigh heavily on consumer confidence. When activity stays this weak, the market becomes more fragile. Sellers who can wait are choosing to hold back, while households that need to move face a much thinner pool of buyers.

At the same time, power of sales are becoming more common as mortgage payments reset and household finances tighten. More owners are falling behind, and with demand already weak, distressed sellers have less ability to quietly exit the market. That pushes more forced listings onto the MLS and adds downward pressure on prices.

We also discuss the fallout from the Department of Justice's criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the growing uncertainty around the Fed's independence. These political shocks matter for Canada. If confidence in the U.S. central bank weakens, it can lead to higher bond yields, more volatile currencies, and ultimately higher mortgage rates, adding another headwind for housing.

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Today's show links:

Dave Larock's latest weekly blog post on mortgage rates on MoveSmartly.com: https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/author/david-larock

Contact Us:

John Pasalis, President and Broker, Realosophy Realty, Toronto | Email: askjohn@movesmartly.com | X-Twitter: @JohnPasalis

David Larock, Mortgage Broker and Analyst and Realtor | Email: dave@morplan.ca | X-Twitter: @Dave_at_IMP

About This Show:

The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.

You can also watch this and every episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly

If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please subscribe and leave us a positive rating on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from — thank you!!

This month's real estate roundtable brings together John Pasalis, Steve Saretsky, and mortgage broker David Larock for a timely discussion on the latest developments shaping Canada's housing market as we head into 2026.

We begin with the federal government's recent signal that it may reverse the foreign buyer ban in 2027. We break down what this announcement really means for the market today, how much impact foreign buyers actually have on housing demand, and whether lifting the ban would meaningfully change prices or investor behaviour.

From there, we turn to mortgages — and why fixed mortgage rates may trend up rather than down in 2026, despite widespread expectations of easing. We discuss bond yields, inflation risks, and how lenders are pricing uncertainty into rates. We also look at what this means for buyers on the sidelines, households renewing this year, and investor sentiment heading into the spring market.

We wrap up by sharing the key indicators we're watching in the months ahead and how they may shape the direction of Canada's housing market through 2026.

Contact & Follow

Follow John Pasalis on X/Twitter: @JohnPasalis | Email: askjohn@movesmartly.com
Follow Steve Saretsky on X/Twitter: @SteveSaretsky | Email: steve@stevesaretsky.com
Follow David Larock on X/Twitter: @Dave_at_IMP | Email: dave@moreplan.ca

Watch this episode on the Move Smartly YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly

If you enjoy the show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review, and comment — your support helps us reach more listeners.

This week on Move Smartly, I'm joined by Doug Hoyes, Licensed Insolvency Trustee and co-founder of Hoyes, Michalos & Associates, one of the most experienced consumer debt relief firms in Canada. Doug works on the front lines with households facing financial distress, giving him a real-time look into what's happening beneath the surface of the economy — long before it shows up in official data.

We unpack what he's seeing inside his practice today: who's struggling, what's driving the rise in consumer proposals and bankruptcies, and how closely those trends are connected to housing costs, mortgage renewals and rising debt loads. We discuss the growing role of HELOCs, the psychology of debt in a real-estate-obsessed culture, and whether insolvency trends could signal more forced home sales and pressure on the housing market in 2025.

This is an important conversation for anyone following the housing market, the growing financial strain facing Canadian families, and the economic risks building beneath the headlines.

Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: askjohn@movesmartly.com

Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly

About This Show

The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.

You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly

If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!