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This month's roundtable digs into a shifting housing market narrative—one where the spotlight is quietly moving away from pre-construction condos and toward a surge in multiplex development across Canada. Fueled by highly leveraged, government-backed financing through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation programs like MLI Select, multiplex projects are emerging as the new "pre-con"—offering attractive returns on paper, but carrying real risks if rents, costs, or timelines don't hold. We unpack why this boom is happening now, who's building, and whether this model is sustainable—or just the latest cycle of risk masked by easy credit.

At the same time, cracks are forming beneath the surface. Mortgage arrears are rising across Canada, a signal that higher interest rates and affordability pressures are starting to bite. We connect this trend to broader financial conditions, including rising bond yields, and what that means for borrowers, investors, and housing demand in both Toronto and Vancouver. While home sales remain subdued in both markets, the underlying story is increasingly about financial stress and shifting incentives—not just supply and demand.

This episode dives into some of the biggest questions buyers and sellers are asking right now—from whether it makes sense to jump into pre-construction with the new HST rebate, to the growing debate over whether that policy is really helping buyers or quietly supporting builders. We unpack the risks of trying to time the market in an uncertain economic environment, and how to think about pricing, incentives, and long-term value when conditions are shifting.

We also discuss what's actually happening on the ground in today's market, including whether underpricing strategies still work for sellers and how much leverage buyers really have right now. The goal is to cut through the noise and give practical insight into how to navigate a market that feels increasingly unpredictable.

In today's live, we unpack why the market is still slower than the headlines suggest and what the HST rebate means for buyers right now. We dig into the HST rebate on new homes and what it actually means for buyers, how it's structured, who's likely to benefit, and why the impact on pricing isn't as straightforward as it sounds. We also look at what it signals for new construction and some key risks buyers should keep in mind before making a move.

Despite the headlines, the market fundamentals remain weak, with sales still running well below normal levels across both houses and condos. Inventory remains elevated compared to historical norms, and prices have continued to ease from recent peaks.

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:07 Market Stats
08:56 HST Rebat
19:25 On The Ground Questions
36:19 Mortgage Expert - David Larock

Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Realosophy to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn

Sign up for our email list to be alerted to the next online market update to join our YouTube session live chat and ask your own Qs: https://www.movesmartly.com/monthly-public-webinar

We hope you enjoyed this month's update and found it valuable. Thanks for tuning in - we'll see you next month!

Toronto and Vancouver's housing markets remain notably weak this month, with both cities continuing to see subdued sales and hesitant buyer activity. What stands out isn't just the slowdown itself, but how comfortable many buyers seem staying on the sidelines.

In this month's Real Estate Roundtable, John Pasalis, Steve Saretsky, and David Larock unpack the factors reinforcing that caution. Rising interest rates, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, are giving buyers plenty of justification to wait. Even those who are financially capable of purchasing are choosing patience, contributing to markets that feel stuck rather than competitive.

We also take a closer look at the federal government's HST cut on new housing and what it actually means in practice. While the policy may support new housing starts at the margins, its more immediate impact could be on developers holding completed but unsold units. The change makes it easier for builders to sell these units to institutional investors at discounted prices, or to rent them out without triggering the same tax consequences they would have faced before.

Overall, the discussion highlights a market that isn't just slow, but structurally constrained, where policy changes may ease pressure for developers without necessarily improving affordability or bringing buyers back into the market in the near term.

Housing economists say we need more supply. Politicians blame city planners. YIMBYs want less regulation. But the cities we admire most — Barcelona, Paris, Amsterdam — weren't built by getting out of the way. They were built by bold, intentional planning. So what's actually going on? In this conversation, we sit down with Gregg Lintern, former Chief Planner of the City of Toronto and Dean of the Curtner Urban Leadership Program with ULI Toronto, to unpack the housing crisis as a system — not a soundbite.

Gregg walks us through what a Chief Planner actually controls, what he tried to change from the inside with initiatives like EHON, and why blaming any single actor misses the bigger picture. We dig into the real barriers — regulatory, economic, and political — that make it so hard to build the kinds of housing Toronto needs. And we tackle the harder questions: in an era of cautious incrementalism, have we lost the appetite for the kind of transformative planning that shaped the great cities of the world?

Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: askjohn@movesmartly.com

Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly

About This Show

The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.

You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly

If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!

In this episode, we tackle a few timely questions from listeners trying to make sense of today's housing market. We start with a seller who received a strong offer from buyers willing to purchase without conditions—but with a long closing because they still need to sell their own home. We unpack the real risk in that scenario: what happens if the buyers can't sell in time, and how sellers should think about these types of offers in a slower market.

We also explore how AI is beginning to reshape the real estate industry and what agents should be doing now to stay competitive as things evolve. On the buyer side, we discuss how to approach timing in a market where some homes sit while others attract multiple offers, and whether buyers are finally regaining the ability to include conditions like financing and home inspections—even in competitive situations—and how to know when you can get away with it.

Follow John x-twitter: https://x.com/JohnPasalis, Instagram @john.pasalis or email: askjohn@movesmartly.com

Follow the show on x-twitter: @MoveSmartly, Instagram @move.smartly

About This Show

The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.

You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly

If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!