Could a transformed Cuba redraw the economic map of the American Southwest? On STRAT, retired Marine intelligence officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer explores a scenario in which a capitalist, pro-American Cuba emerges as a major destination for tourism, investment, and development. From Havana’s potential revival as a casino resort destination, and possibly a new convention hub, to opportunities in manufacturing, technology, and renewable energy, Kempfer considers how change just 90 miles from Florida could reshape competition across the region. He examines what that future might mean for Las Vegas resorts, Nevada’s workforce, local tax revenues, and cities facing growing pressure on water resources. The discussion also explores possible trade and security arrangements that could influence investor confidence, while drawing comparisons with Eastern Europe’s economic transformation after the Cold War. This episode challenges business leaders and communities to think ahead about geopolitical shifts, emerging markets, and the strategic risks of assuming today’s competitive advantages will endure indefinitely.

Takeaways:

• A transformed Cuba could reshape tourism and investment competition.
• Havana could challenge Las Vegas for casinos and conventions.
• Tourism shifts could pressure Nevada’s jobs and tax revenues.
• Potential security arrangements could influence investor confidence in Cuba.
• Trade opportunities could attract manufacturing and technology investment.
• Water constraints could challenge the American Southwest’s economic competitiveness.
• Cuba’s renewable energy potential could attract new development.
• Planning for geopolitical change matters before competitive advantages erode.

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In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine intelligence officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines what the program describes as an escalating Russian hybrid warfare campaign targeting NATO countries—and increasingly reaching into the United States. From a newly disclosed federal murder-for-hire case to alleged sabotage, cyberattacks, drone incursions, GPS jamming, infrastructure disruption, and political interference, Kempfer explores the tactics being attributed to Russian intelligence and proxy networks. The discussion looks at recent incidents across Europe, including threats to airports, communications cables, energy infrastructure, aviation, and maritime operations. Kempfer also examines how operatives may recruit third-party proxies through encrypted platforms while maintaining layers of plausible deniability. Finally, STRAT considers the strategic purpose behind gray-zone warfare: applying economic, social, and political pressure while remaining below the threshold of conventional military conflict—and what continued Russian pressure could mean for NATO, Ukraine, Europe, and American national security.

• Russia is accused of expanding hybrid operations against NATO.
• Gray-zone warfare operates below conventional military conflict thresholds.
• Critical infrastructure remains a major target of sabotage.
• Drones increasingly challenge NATO airspace and civilian infrastructure.
• Cyberattacks threaten maritime transportation and vital supply chains.
• Proxy recruitment can provide intelligence services plausible deniability.
• GPS jamming threatens European aviation and maritime navigation.
• Hybrid warfare combines physical, cyber, political, and information operations.

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The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints—and renewed Houthi activity could make it even more consequential. In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines the Houthis’ reported expansion along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the strategic importance of controlling territory overlooking this vital shipping corridor. Hal explains how disruption at Bab el-Mandeb reverberates through the Suez Canal, global shipping routes, energy markets, and international supply chains. He traces Yemen’s complicated history of civil war and foreign intervention while examining Iran’s relationship with the Houthis and the implications for Saudi Arabia and regional security. With maritime commerce, oil transportation, military alliances, and Iran’s regional proxy network all intersecting around this narrow waterway, Hal assesses what Saudi Arabia and its partners may do next—and why developments in Yemen could have consequences extending far beyond the Red Sea.

• Bab el-Mandeb remains a critical global maritime chokepoint.
• Houthi coastal gains strengthen maritime surveillance capabilities.
• Red Sea disruption threatens international shipping and supply chains.
• Longer African routes substantially increase shipping costs and transit.
• Yemen’s history complicates prospects for another foreign intervention.
• Saudi Arabia faces increasing pressure to confront Houthi expansion.
• Iranian proxy relationships magnify Yemen’s broader strategic importance.
• Houthi developments could reshape Middle Eastern security calculations.

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