The NFL Win Totals are officially out and Stephie Smalls is wasting no time attacking the board. CJ Sullivan (Bottom Line Bombs, SGPN) joins the show to break down next season’s numbers before free agency, the draft, and the schedule release shake everything up.

They start at the bottom of the board in the 4.5 win tier, where CJ locks in Cardinals over 4.5 as an early position, expecting that number to rise once offseason optimism kicks in. From there, they move through the 5.5 and 6.5 ranges, debating teams like the Jets, Raiders, Titans, and Browns. CJ makes a strong case for Browns under, pointing to concerns with the roster and offensive line issues heading into the year.

Stephie shows love to Carolina over 6.5, banking on Bryce Young’s development and a manageable division. They also dig into mid-tier teams with tricky numbers and discuss how market perception can create early value before the public jumps in.

As they climb higher up the board, they break down playoff hopefuls, division contenders, and potential regression candidates. The conversation covers strategy, timing, and how to approach futures before major roster moves are finalized.

After the win total breakdown, Producer Ryan joins for Extra Holes with the weekly funny lists and announcements about new offseason segments, including Ask Smalls Anything, where fans can leave voicemails for future Spotify exclusives.

If you’re betting NFL futures, this is your early roadmap.

0:00 - Intro
0:50 - Welcome CJ Sullivan on
2:33 - Explaining win totals approach
5:34 - Cardinals early over bet
8:09 - Jets Raiders debate begins
10:20 - Panthers optimism discussion starts
11:18 - Browns Titans under conversation
13:45 - Offensive line concerns Cleveland
15:33 - Falcons Saints Giants breakdown
18:10 - Mid tier regression candidates
22:05 - Playoff hopefuls ceiling talk
26:40 - Division futures strategy segment
31:15 - Timing market movement angles
36:50 - Producer Ryan joins
39:30 - Extra Holes funny lists
44:10 - Announcing offseason show schedule
47:25 - Ask Smalls Anything launch
50:00 - Final thoughts futures recap

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Get your betting card ready for PGA National as The Stephie Smalls Show delivers a full Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches betting preview with PGA handicapper Danny Burke from Betting News. Stephie and Danny break down how the renovated course is playing, why scores are lower than in years past, and which stats matter most this week — including bogey avoidance, Bermuda putting, strokes gained approach, and approach shots from 150–200 yards.

The conversation dives deep into key players on the betting board, including Shane Lowry, Ryan Gerard, Daniel Berger, Aaron Rai, Sam Ryder, Rico Hoey, Keith Mitchell, Doug Ghim, Brooks Koepka, Erik van Rooyen, Billy Horschel, and longshot K.H. Lee. Stephie and Danny discuss which golfers fit the course best and which popular names may be overvalued.

Specific bets and angles mentioned include Ryan Gerard outright around +1850 with a Top 20 at +110, Daniel Berger at 35/1 with a Top 20 around +180, Aaron Rai Top 30 at +110, Sam Ryder Top 10 after Round 1 at +800 and Top 40 at +140, Rico Hoey Top 20 at +225, Keith Mitchell Top 30 at +130, Doug Ghim Top 20 at +335, Erik van Rooyen Top 40 at +200, Billy Horschel Top 20 at +345, and a deep longshot sprinkle on K.H. Lee at 500/1.

If you’re looking for Cognizant Classic best bets, PGA golf betting picks, and sharp insight from a professional golf handicapper, this episode breaks down exactly how to attack this week’s tournament.

0:00 – Intro
0:51 – Danny Burke intro
1:31 – Golf betting growth
2:14 – Tournament overview
2:47 – Course changes
3:27 – Scoring trends
3:58 – Key stats breakdown
4:45 – Shane Lowry discussion
6:02 – Betting strategy approach
7:44 – Best bets begin
7:51 – Ryan Gerard bet
9:20 – Daniel Berger case
11:02 – Aaron Rai value
12:17 – Sam Ryder angles
13:52 – Rico Hoey breakdown
15:54 – Keith Mitchell value
17:28 – Doug Ghim upside
18:24 – Brooks Koepka debate
18:51 – Erik van Rooyen play
19:58 – Billy Horschel value
20:57 – K.H. Lee longshot

👉 Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review the podcast! It helps us grow and lets Stephie keep bringing the heat.
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The Genesis Invitational is here, and the Stephie Smalls Show delivers a full betting breakdown for one of the most important stops on the PGA Tour calendar at Riviera Country Club.

Stephie is joined by Larry from Tom & Marty’s Bar, one of the sharpest and most entertaining golf bettors around, to dig into course fit, betting value, and how to attack Riviera from a wagering perspective. From outright winners to top-20 and first-round leader bets, this episode covers every angle serious golf bettors need heading into the week.

The conversation touches on elite contenders like Genesis Invitational favorites Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Morikawa, while also exploring value and longshot plays featuring Wyndham Clark, Shane Lowry, Cam Young, Adam Scott, Jason Day, Harris English, and rising star Pierceson Coody.

Along the way, Larry explains why Riviera rewards elite ball striking, why recent form isn’t always everything on the West Coast swing, and how betting “guys you hate” can still be profitable. The episode also features one of the most bizarre side stories of the PGA season: Larry’s infamous Wendy’s chili bet, which has turned into a multi-week endurance test — and possibly cursed Scottie Scheffler in the process.

If you’re betting the Genesis Invitational, this episode is a must-watch.

0:00 - Intro
1:18 - Larry rebrand explained
2:52 - Wendy’s chili bet
4:16 - Three bowls daily
5:08 - Pride keeps going
5:41 - Breaking sugar habits
6:24 - Portion control strategy
7:00 - Strict rules discipline
7:48 - Chicken sandwich countdown
8:10 - Morikawa shirt saga
8:43 - Stephie Morikawa rant
9:17 - Morikawa fixes debate
10:09 - Humility and redemption
10:38 - Betting guys hated
11:49 - Wyndham Clark value
12:58 - Villains must win
13:38 - Shane Lowry love
14:19 - Lowry can’t win
15:03 - Cam Young emotions
15:40 - Value play “Gator”
16:15 - One-and-done dilemma
17:04 - Cam Young sickness
18:29 - “Rio” riding wave
19:02 - Ceiling and putting
20:00 - Normal dudes energy
21:53 - Pierceson Coody model
22:26 - Coody name roasting
23:51 - Harris English angle
24:11 - First-round leader logic
25:20 - Odds check “Gator”
26:06 - Market not adjusted
26:25 - No household-name knock
26:46 - Small sample debate
27:38 - Morning chaos context
28:08 - Jason Day temptation
28:42 - Day career outlook
29:03 - Rose inspires vets
29:38 - Adam Scott case
30:05 - Riviera fits Scott
31:14 - Masters motivation timing
31:59 - Final bets wrap
32:10 - Scheffler chili curse
32:46 - Health checks concern
33:29 - Wendy’s liability joke

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21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800 BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI)

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