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The Base Rate Fallacy: Why Psychologists Get Diagnoses Wrong

The Base Rate Fallacy: Why Psychologists Get Diagnoses Wrong

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A psychological test can have 90% sensitivity and specificity and still produce more false positives than true positives. This episode examines the base rate fallacy, why psychologists sometimes overestimate diagnostic accuracy, and how Bayesian reasoning improves clinical judgment. We also explore how the same statistical error affects forensic risk assessments and why the human brain struggles with probability.
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