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The Continental Rift

The Continental Rift

Written by: Fresh Lens
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A European President & American comedian on the US and Europe divorce: who gets what? And what comes next? Weekly informed, irreverent and short takes on the latest political mayhem.© 2026 Fresh Lens Film Sàrl Political Science Politics & Government
Episodes
  • Has Putin trumped Trump?

    Has Putin trumped Trump?
    Oct 16 2026
    Trump’s Russian diesel deal, pressuring Ukraine & sanctioning the ICC (International Criminal Court): is this Putin’s best week in years? And as EU leaders clash on budget and migration, are they pulling apart just when they need to stand together? An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. TRUMP’S DIESEL DEAL WITH PUTIN - On 9 October, Trump announced a temporary US Treasury licence allowing Russian diesel supplies to reach US and global markets. After Trump declared an energy ceasefire on 11 October, Russia continued bombing Ukrainian power stations while Ukraine paused strikes on Russian energy for three days. Ukraine resumed attacks on 15 October; Trump called this “a disgrace”. INTELLIGENCE, WEAPONS & STARSHIELD - US envoys reportedly warned Ukraine it could lose US intelligence and US weapons purchased by European allies unless it stopped striking Russian refineries (Axios, CNN). The administration says intelligence sharing continues. StarShield was speed-restricted, not switched off. Elon Musk says the US military and ultimately the President determine the restrictions. On 16 October, Zelensky said full-speed service had not been restored. RUSSIA’S FROZEN ASSETS - The Financial Times reported that US envoys proposed transferring some frozen Russian sovereign assets into a Washington-overseen vehicle. European officials rejected the idea. Around €260 billion was frozen in 2022, mostly in the EU; releasing it would require agreement from all 27 member states. EUROPE’S RESPONSE - On 12 October, the EU sanctioned 1,569 Russian arms-industry companies and executives. On 16 October, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said sanctions would remain until Russia stops the war, with a 22nd package in preparation. However, unity is fragile: Bulgaria’s prime minister welcomed measures to lower fuel prices, while Slovakia is reviving its cooperation commission with Russia, due to meet in Moscow on 25 November. KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE - Guilfoyle resigned at the White House’s request on 13 October. The State Department inspector general is investigating allegations surrounding her. The Daily Mail, citing unnamed administration insiders, reported that she kept a “burn book” on the Trump family. Guilfoyle said her respect for Trump and Secretary of State Rubio remained “unwavering”. A US president can issue a pardon before charges or conviction. THE ICC - US sanctions targeting the ICC as an institution were announced on 9 October and will take effect after a six-month delay. Former ICC judge Navi Pillay was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The ICC can prosecute crimes committed on the territory of its member states, regardless of who commits them. MIGRATION & SCHENGEN - Following talks at this week’s summit, Italy extended its checks by seven days, aligning them with Spain’s, which expire on 22 October. Tighter EU visa rules for Russians could pass by qualified majority. France, Italy and Spain issued nearly three-quarters of the 620,000-plus Schengen visas granted to Russians in 2025. FROG WATCH - No one has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack disrupting refrigeration at around 700 French supermarkets on 11–12 October. Bulgaria is investigating arson at Starlink antennas near Sofia, with no charges announced. The cargo ship HS Dignity sank off Bulgaria on 13 October; the search for 11 missing crew has been called off, and the prime minister has not formally linked the incident to the arson. A man charged over an alleged plot against Poland’s Donald Tusk denies the allegations; no foreign link has been established. CHINA, TRADE & GREENLAND - On 9 October, the EU and China announced an understanding on hybrid-car trade. Greenland has issued no new oil and gas licences since 2021, while Denmark says September’s security deal gives US investors no preferential access. CANADA - Claim that US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick threatened to send US troops into Canada is included in Chrystia Freeland’s new book ‘Unreliable Boyfriend’. Lutnick has no military authority and has not responded publicly. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:17 The Rifty Backstory 00:03:24 Trump's diesel deal with Putin 00:07:47 Miami: Intelligence threats and Russia's frozen assets 00:10:41 Europe stunned, and split 00:12:00 Guilfoyle resigns as US Ambassador to Greece 00:14:10 US sanctions the International Criminal Court 00:18:46 EU summit: Meloni v Sanchez on migration 00:22:18 Sanchez's election prospects 00:23:11 Visas for Russians and the future of Schengen 00:24:18 Frog Watch: seven days 00:27:06 China's hybrid cars and trade surplus with Europe 00:29:19 Greenland and Canada closer to Europe CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved
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    31 mins
  • Spies, Lies and Disinformation

    Spies, Lies and Disinformation
    Oct 9 2026
    Germany’s former spy chief is arrested on suspicion of treason, while ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder joins Putin in Moscow for his birthday. Can America and Europe still trust Berlin with their secrets? And as Marco Rubio tours Europe, why did the EU, Lithuania and Canada drop their support for a disinformation conference: who’s afraid of the truth? An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week's continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:54 The Rifty backstory 00:02:44 Germany's former spy chief arrested 00:04:37 Schröder, Putin and Germany's spies 00:07:48 Three elections, three directions 00:08:19 Bosnia: Dodik thanks Trump and Putin 00:10:20 Latvia's pro-Europe parties triumph 00:11:58 Sánchez announces snap election in Spain 00:15:44 Rubio's selective European tour 00:17:33 The US Ambassador to Greece in the news again 00:19:29 Washington's message to Europe 00:22:16 EU, Lithuania and Canada withdraw from disinformation conference 00:26:40 Brussels eyes a Big Tech levy 00:29:32 Frog Watch 00:31:09 Black Sea attacks and Turkey 00:35:12 EU budget talks heating up 00:36:28 How rifty was this week? MORE INFORMATION: GERMAN SPY SCANDAL - August Hanning, ex-chief of Germany’s foreign intelligence service (BND), was arrested on 6 October and remanded in custody the next day on suspicion of treasonous espionage. His lawyer says he held confidential documents but denies passing information on to harm Germany or for payment. No foreign state has been named by prosecutors. Der Spiegel reported an Azerbaijani intelligence agent may have been the intended recipient of a report containing classified information; Azerbaijani state media called the links “fake” and “a smear campaign”. Estonian Defence Ministry official Herman Simm was convicted of spying for Russia in 2009. SCHRÖDER - The Kremlin said Schröder spent Putin’s birthday with him at his home on 7 October. Schröder joined the supervisory board of Russian retailer Hyperglobus this month. He left Rosneft’s board in May 2022 and declined a Gazprom nomination that year. BOSNIA - Milorad Dodik, ex-president of Republika Srpska, was banned from public office for 6 years in 2025 and was not on the ballot. He called for erasing the border between Republika Srpska and Serbia at a pre-election rally. The New York Times reports Trump advisers James Blair and Chris LaCivita were paid to advise Republika Srpska’s government on voting issues; Trump says they were outside consultants “who don’t work for me”. The FT reports Katie Wiles, daughter of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, is a partner at Continental Strategy, which holds a lobbying contract with Republika Srpska; the firm says she has not lobbied US officials on behalf of it. US AMBASSADOR TO GREECE - The Wall Street Journal reported on 7 October that Ambassador Guilfoyle pressed a donor to pay a $100,000 Amex bill. She and her lawyer dispute the account. #Disinfo2026 CONFERENCE - Lithuania, Canada and the EU’s diplomatic service withdrew sponsorship of the Vilnius conference after Washington objected to panels on the US as a disinformation threat, per a State Department cable seen by POLITICO. France kept its support. Lithuania says it withdrew because parts of the programme differed from official government policy. In September Lithuania’s president announced a new rotation of US troops; on 5 October Trump said he would “certainly look at” a permanent US base after Lithuania’s PM offered to pay for one. FROG WATCH - Two merchant ships were struck by drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone on 6 October; one sank. Bulgaria has not attributed the attack and has ruled out invoking NATO Articles 4 and 5. The ships were Turkish-owned but flagged to Togo, Palau and St Kitts and Nevis. Defence entrepreneur Stefan Thumann, whose company Donaustahl supplies drones to Ukraine, revealed on the podcast Ronzheimer that he was informed of a Russian plot to assassinate him in 2025. EU BUDGET - France’s government debt was 115.6% of GDP at end-2025 (Eurostat), below the 170.6% Greece hit in 2011, though far larger in euros. EU leaders aim to agree the 2028-34 budget by end-2026; it needs unanimous member-state approval and European Parliament consent. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved
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    38 mins
  • Who can Europe count on?

    Who can Europe count on?
    Oct 2 2026
    Athens is spooked: did the US Ambassador just boast about toppling governments(!)? And is America bringing in Russia from the diplomatic deep freeze? (Can Europe do anything about it?) An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week's continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:59 The Rifty back story 00:02:32 Hello from Gdańsk 00:03:44 Will Trump ban diesel exports? 00:05:05 Trump's treatment of Canada 00:06:32 Red carpet for Xi Jinping 00:07:55 US Ambassador Guilfoyle, Greece and gas lobbying 00:11:23 Putin's invitation to G20 in Miami 00:13:14 Kyviv under fire and troubles for European companies in Russia 00:15:49 Military Schengen: can Europe mobilise its troops? 00:18:04 NATO meeting without the UK, France and the Baltics? 00:19:34 Europe's defence projects and the Joint Expeditionary Force 00:22:20 Will Britain rejoin the EU? 00:23:48 EU enlargement: try before you buy 00:26:47 Frogwatch: EU governments publicly naming Russia for hybrid attacks 00:31:36 Elections in Latvia and Twitter wars More information DIESEL — On 2 October, G7 leaders agreed a coordinated IEA release of 100m barrels of diesel and crude oil over four months, with a “substantial” diesel release in the first 20 days. Washington had asked Europe for at least 100m barrels and threatened to ban US diesel exports otherwise (FT). The G7 statement, backed by the US, reaffirms a commitment to “refrain from export restrictions on energy and energy products between G7 countries”. The US supplied about half of EU diesel imports in August (IEA). US, CANADA & CHINA — The US ban in force since 29 September covers nearly $1bn of Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles. Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews, a courtesy US presidents rarely extend; he also greeted Putin on the tarmac in Alaska in August 2025. GREECE & US AMBASSADOR — The WSJ reported on 25 September that, at a March dinner in Athens, US Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle said of Romania’s collapsing government: “We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here”, according to an attendee. Her lawyer disputes the account; the Greek government says there was no threat. There is no independent evidence the US played a role in the collapse of Romania’s government in May. Aktor, a Greek construction group new to gas, has a joint venture with state-backed DEPA supplying American LNG across the region. The WSJ reports Guilfoyle flew to Bulgaria on a jet provided by Aktor’s CEO and travelled to Tirana without embassy staff. RUSSIA & G20 — Trump has reportedly approved an early-stage plan to ease some Russia sanctions in exchange for political-prisoner releases (The Atlantic, 29 September). The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023; the US is not an ICC member. UKRAINE — UN monitors say civilian casualties have risen every month in 2026, with July the deadliest since March 2022. On 1 October a Russian drone hit a Kyiv school; 104 students and 60 teachers survived in its shelter. EUROPEAN DEFENCE — In Operation Dragoon Ride (2015) US Strykers drove 1,800km from Estonia to Germany in 13 days, testing how freely NATO forces can cross Europe’s borders. The Pentagon’s “Bergen Group” meets in Poland in October on NATO’s future; the UK, France and the Baltic states were not invited. The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force has 10 members; Canada applied to join on 16 September. On 1 October EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said a missile or bombing attack on a European arms factory “would be Article 5”, after Moscow called such factories “potential military targets”. BRITAIN & EU — YouGov’s late-September tracker found 59% of Britons support rejoining the EU, with 32% opposed. FROG WATCH — Estonia joins a growing list of governments publicly blaming Russia: Poland tied the November 2025 Warsaw–Lublin rail sabotage to people working for Russian services; Germany blamed Russia for August’s foiled drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport, and the GRU for a failed incendiary attack on a Munich defence company in September. Investigators believe the Leipzig explosives entered Germany via Bulgaria and Serbia, while the GRU-linked suspect travelled via Turkey (Axel Springer reporting); Russia denies involvement. On 1 October Russia briefly detained the Estonia-bound cargo ship Västerbotten in the Gulf of Finland without explanation (ERR). CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved
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    35 mins
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