Alex explains why the Bank of Canada’s 2.25% rate hold is not the full story. Bond markets and bank forecasts are leaning toward higher rates, not cuts. He breaks down what inflation, weak growth, jobs, and 2026 trade uncertainty (CUSMA) could mean for renewals and buyers, and why people in Ontario and BC may face the biggest equity and appraisal risk.

Ally & Eddie contact: Ally.swopes@engelvoelkers.com

The episode breaks down why more Canadians are shifting real estate money out of Canada and into U.S. markets like Scottsdale. They explain how Canadian Airbnb rule changes, higher rates, and a weak dollar changed the “numbers,” pushing investors and developers to chase better returns, while politics (including Trump) mostly created noise but didn’t stop serious buyers.

READY FRAMEWORK to decide if you should buy now: https://flowprocess.lovable.app/ready

Alex breaks down Canada’s 2026 “mystery bottom” and says it’s a regional market, not one story. Forecasts show modest sales growth but unclear price direction. He explains the main risks (renewal payment shock, limited rate drops, softer demand with rising supply) and the upside (pent-up first-time buyers, better affordability, more negotiating power), then outlines who should buy vs who should wait based on their situation.

Alex breaks down why 2026 may not be a housing recovery, even though CREA forecasts rising sales and prices. He argues the 1.15 million mortgage renewals, especially the 60% facing higher payments, plus rising unemployment and slower sales could create more seller pressure and more supply. His takeaway is buyers likely gain negotiating power, while sellers and renewers need a clear strategy instead of trusting optimistic industry headlines.

Trump announced a $200B plan to buy up US mortgage debt to push rates down. Because US bond yields and mortgage rates often drag Canadian rates with them, it could lower Canadian fixed rates a bit. But tariffs and the 2026 CUSMA review could spike inflation and keep rates higher, so the outcome depends on which force wins.

Canada is about to add roughly 180,000 new purpose-built rentals in 2026, pushing vacancy rates higher in major cities and making renting cheaper than owning in a lot of condo markets. The episode connects this rental “flood” with the 1.15M mortgage renewals, explaining how higher payments, falling rents, and negative cash flow could trigger more investor selling and more condo price weakness in places like Toronto and Vancouver. It closes with a decision framework for first-time buyers, renewers, and investors, emphasizing scenario math (not emotion) and why the rental surge may be temporary, setting up a tighter market again later in the decade.

Alex explains that Canada isn’t one housing market anymore, and shows how prices are rising in some provinces while falling in others. He breaks down what’s driving the split and then uses those factors to rank winning cities for 2026 versus markets he thinks will stall or decline. The takeaway is a simple checklist to spot strong markets before you buy or invest.

Alex compares today’s fixed vs variable mortgage rates and shows what the payment and interest differences look like on real numbers. He uses Bank of Canada signals and big-bank forecasts to explain why 2026 is likely a “hold or slight rise” environment, not a return to ultra-low rates. The takeaway is a simple decision framework based on your risk tolerance, budget flexibility, time horizon, and whether a hybrid split makes more sense than trying to “guess” the market.