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In the first episode of the new year, David Fleming encouragers listeners not to obsess over all the “predictions” floating around out there, but rather understand the issues, trends, hot topics, blind spots, and market vulnerabilities, which help market participants to remain alert and attentive to what’s really going on in the market. This episode dives into how market shocks like interest rate cuts, tariffs and trade wars, and economic uncertainty reshaped the market in 2025, why sales activity matters more than headline prices, and why the Toronto condo market isn’t nearly as dire as many believe (at least on the resale side).

David also explores why the pre-construction condominium industry may be fundamentally broken, how housing affordability differs across Canada, and whether Ontario residents will increasingly look elsewhere. This episode takes an honest look at where Toronto real estate has been and where it’s likely headed next.

In This Episode:

02:52 – Market trajectory vs price: the real focus for 2026

05:25 – Tariffs, uncertainty & how market shocks change buyer behaviour

15:26 – Have we hit the sales trough? 2026 sales prediction

17:25 – Pre-construction condos: why the model is broken

31:23 – Resale condos: why the decline is overstated

37:03 – Real estate across Canada & affordability comparisons

44:15 – Net migration, affordability & why people are leaving Ontario

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Everybody wants to look ahead and predict what’s coming next. But before we talk about 2026, it’s worth taking a hard look at the year that was. In this final episode of the year, David Fleming breaks down Toronto real estate in 2025 month by month, using real listings, real clients, and real outcomes to explain what actually happened beneath the headlines.

From early optimism and rate cuts, to frozen buyer psychology, collapsing condo sales, and the unraveling of the pre-construction market, this episode offers an honest review of one of the most challenging years Toronto real estate has seen. If you want context, clarity, and perspective, this episode is for you.

In This Episode:

1:21 – January: Early optimism, rate cuts, and first warning signs
6:04 – February: Prices vs. sales in a frozen market
11:48 – March: The Trump effect and condo realities
16:25 – April: Lowest sales on record and diverging buyer behaviour
22:56 – May: Growing price declines and market pressure builds
30:17 – June: Signs of normalization and selective buyer confidence
33:46 – July: Condo struggles, strategic moves, and creative selling
38:33 – August: Media narratives vs. real market conditions
40:50 – September: Fall market activity and standout sales
43:44 – October: Prices stabilize, sales fluctuate
47:58 – November: Government policy, Bill 60, and housing promises
50:59 – December: Final stats and key takeaways

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In this week’s episode, David takes on one of the most divisive questions in Toronto real estate: is the current condo market a rare buying opportunity?

Examining the stalled pre-construction condo market, the federal government’s lack of a housing plan, the peak-to-trough decline in prices, and the math behind a real-life investment example, David makes a case for why resale condominiums are positioned for long-term upside, and why today’s declining condo market will set up the next condo boom five years from now.

In This Episode:

02:10 — Why Buyers Wait for the “Way Up”
05:05 — Peak Pricing and the Pre-Con Bubble
07:28 — From 2021 Frenzy to 2025 Stagnation
09:11 — Absorption Rates Collapse
11:31 — Urbanation Data & Cancellations
17:37 — Government Housing Promises Walked Back
24:25 — Doing the Math at Today’s Pricing

Support the show

Subscribe and Follow:
Toronto Realty Group Website
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