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In the first episode of the new year, David Fleming encouragers listeners not to obsess over all the “predictions” floating around out there, but rather understand the issues, trends, hot topics, blind spots, and market vulnerabilities, which help market participants to remain alert and attentive to what’s really going on in the market. This episode dives into how market shocks like interest rate cuts, tariffs and trade wars, and economic uncertainty reshaped the market in 2025, why sales activity matters more than headline prices, and why the Toronto condo market isn’t nearly as dire as many believe (at least on the resale side).

David also explores why the pre-construction condominium industry may be fundamentally broken, how housing affordability differs across Canada, and whether Ontario residents will increasingly look elsewhere. This episode takes an honest look at where Toronto real estate has been and where it’s likely headed next.

In This Episode:

02:52 – Market trajectory vs price: the real focus for 2026

05:25 – Tariffs, uncertainty & how market shocks change buyer behaviour

15:26 – Have we hit the sales trough? 2026 sales prediction

17:25 – Pre-construction condos: why the model is broken

31:23 – Resale condos: why the decline is overstated

37:03 – Real estate across Canada & affordability comparisons

44:15 – Net migration, affordability & why people are leaving Ontario

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Everybody wants to look ahead and predict what’s coming next. But before we talk about 2026, it’s worth taking a hard look at the year that was. In this final episode of the year, David Fleming breaks down Toronto real estate in 2025 month by month, using real listings, real clients, and real outcomes to explain what actually happened beneath the headlines.

From early optimism and rate cuts, to frozen buyer psychology, collapsing condo sales, and the unraveling of the pre-construction market, this episode offers an honest review of one of the most challenging years Toronto real estate has seen. If you want context, clarity, and perspective, this episode is for you.

In This Episode:

1:21 – January: Early optimism, rate cuts, and first warning signs
6:04 – February: Prices vs. sales in a frozen market
11:48 – March: The Trump effect and condo realities
16:25 – April: Lowest sales on record and diverging buyer behaviour
22:56 – May: Growing price declines and market pressure builds
30:17 – June: Signs of normalization and selective buyer confidence
33:46 – July: Condo struggles, strategic moves, and creative selling
38:33 – August: Media narratives vs. real market conditions
40:50 – September: Fall market activity and standout sales
43:44 – October: Prices stabilize, sales fluctuate
47:58 – November: Government policy, Bill 60, and housing promises
50:59 – December: Final stats and key takeaways

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In this week’s episode, David takes on one of the most divisive questions in Toronto real estate: is the current condo market a rare buying opportunity?

Examining the stalled pre-construction condo market, the federal government’s lack of a housing plan, the peak-to-trough decline in prices, and the math behind a real-life investment example, David makes a case for why resale condominiums are positioned for long-term upside, and why today’s declining condo market will set up the next condo boom five years from now.

In This Episode:

02:10 — Why Buyers Wait for the “Way Up”
05:05 — Peak Pricing and the Pre-Con Bubble
07:28 — From 2021 Frenzy to 2025 Stagnation
09:11 — Absorption Rates Collapse
11:31 — Urbanation Data & Cancellations
17:37 — Government Housing Promises Walked Back
24:25 — Doing the Math at Today’s Pricing

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The Bank of Canada has cut rates again and again, yet sales are sitting at historic lows. Why aren’t buyers taking advantage?

In this episode, David explores the psychology behind today’s frozen market: fear, timing, greed, and the human tendency to wait for the “perfect” time. With illustrations about picking coins off the ground to lessons learned at the blackjack table, this episode digs into why people avoid buying on the way down, but jump in on the way back up, even when it costs them.

In This Episode:

00:00 — Why are lower rates not motivating buyers?
02:12 — Record listings and stalled sales across 2024-2025
06:11 — The “coin on the ground” metaphor and buyer psychology
11:53 — How ultra-low pandemic rates reshaped the market
24:37 — Fear, greed, and why buyers only jump in on the way up
33:37 — Who is buying right now and when the market likely turns

If you’ve been waiting for the “right time” to buy, this episode will challenge the way you think about the market.

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Toronto’s fall real estate market has ground to a halt—sales are at record lows, listings are at record highs, and sellers are wondering why nothing is moving.

In this episode, David breaks down exactly why the market feels frozen: from declining absorption rates to unrealistic seller expectations, and poor communication between agents, buyers, and sellers. David shares real client stories that perfectly illustrate the challenge of selling in today’s conditions, plus what needs to change for deals to start moving again.

In This Episode:

00:00 – Why nothing is selling in Toronto this fall
02:39 – Real client email: sellers confused by a “slow market”
06:02 – Record-high listings, record-low sales, and what that means
13:26 – Prices declining across Ontario and why agents aren’t honest about it
25:41 – The four parties to every deal — and how they’re all getting in their own way
40:20 – What needs to change for Toronto’s market to recover

If you’re thinking about buying or selling right now, this episode is for you.

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The fall market is halfway through—and the numbers are in. But what they reveal might surprise you.

In this week’s episode of The Last Honest Realtor, David breaks down the latest Toronto real estate stats for September 2025 to uncover what’s really happening in the market and what it all means for 2026.

In This Episode:

01:58 – Everybody’s Favourite Question: “How’s The Market?”
05:19 – The Truth Behind “Prices Are Up” Headlines
12:23 – Toronto vs. York, Peel, Halton, & Durham
14:02 – Sales Hit Record Lows
19:47 – A Flood of Listings & Buyer Hesitation
27:32 – Rental Market Resurgence
34:01 – Looking Ahead to 2026

If you want the real story behind the stats and not just the media’s spin, this episode is for you.

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In this episode of The Last Honest Realtor, David shares 10 real stories from the market that highlight the biggest challenges right now: from listings that can’t sell, to buyers waiting on the sidelines, to the properties that spark unpredictable competition. Each story reveals a different side of today’s market. Together, they paint a picture of what buyers should expect this fall.

Timestamps:
03:30 – Story 1: Signs from the Painter
05:54 – Story 2: Out to Lunch
11:02 – Story 3: The Math Doesn’t Add Up
12:29 – Story 4: Define Motivated
14:38 – Story 5: A Backwards Rental Market
20:20 – Story 6: Can A Sale Be Too Good?
25:08 – Story 7: Dinner Time
28:26 – Story 8: Dichotomy
32:28 – Story 9: The Gateway
37:36 – Story 10: If I Can’t Sell It, I’ll Lease It
39:50 – Looking ahead: what does it all mean?

If you’re thinking about buying or selling this fall, you need to understand the bigger picture—and what’s really driving this shift in Toronto real estate.

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Rental scams in Toronto are more common than you think—and they’re getting smarter. In this episode of The Last Honest Realtor, David shares two shocking cases where fraudulent tenants tried to secure luxury rentals with fake credit reports, employment letters, and even forged pay stubs.

In This Episode:

• Learn the red flags that landlords and agents should never ignore.
• See how small details—like pay periods, LinkedIn profiles, and even a “machine operator working from home”—gave these scammers away.
• Understand why Ontario’s tenant-friendly system makes it crucial to vet every single application with care

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro: Rental scams in today’s market
01:15 – Why you don’t need to understand the scam to know it’s a scam
05:13 – How to properly qualify tenants
05:32 – Case #1: The 31-year-old “CFO” with fake documents
16:34 – Case #2: The machine operator who worked from home
25:47 – Why diligence matters for landlords & agents
27:20 – Bigger picture: Ontario’s landlord-tenant board issues
31:16 – Why specialization (and good agents) matter

Whether you’re a landlord, tenant, or just curious about the behind-the-scenes of the rental market, this episode is packed with eye-opening lessons and real-world examples.

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