In this episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, the Sparta team breaks down what's moving oil markets, not just in Iran, but Russian crude switching, gasoline contango and beyond

• Iran tensions boil while Europe doubles down on navigating with the new world order.
• Gasoline spreads swing on Dangote news, heavy selling in the Sing 92 window.
• Russian refinery attacks could be the start of a diesel resurgence just as swing arbs are closed into Europe.
• Spot AG crude diffs likely hit a ceiling on arb econs, unless Iran tail risk is realised.

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction - live from IE Week in London - the team unpacks the growing disconnect in global energy markets: clear signs of a crude glut, yet spreads remain stubbornly backwardated as geopolitics and sanctions keep traders on edge.

Chapters:

(00:17) Oil glut vs geopolitical premium Is the surplus real? Heavy crude weakness, inventory builds, and why spreads refuse to break.

(10:38) How important are fundamentals today? The team discuss the decrease in importance fundamentals in the market and what’s driving these changes.

(14:12) Sanctions, trade deals, and headline risk Venezuela, Russia, India, and how bilateral politics are reshaping flows faster than fundamentals.

(19:40) Crude trade flows and WTI-Brent dislocation Dubai weakness, Americas supply growth, freight impact, and the marginal barrel shifting west.

(22:15) Distillates and jet: Freight, Russia, and export reshuffling US Gulf runs, diesel into Europe, jet reversals, and the gasoil East-West story.

(23:21) Gasoline and naphtha: Structural tightness vs geopolitical swings European refinery closures, EBOB structure, component flows, and naphtha’s sanction sensitivity.

(25:35) Trade ideas: Light-heavy spreads, refinery margins, and prompt gasoline structure Medium-term positioning and short-term conviction trades across crude and products.

Oil markets were driven by geopolitics this week, with Iran-related headlines triggering sharp swings in price. In this episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks what the latest moves mean for the oil risk premium, before turning to crude markets and India’s buying patterns, Russian supply, and Middle East replacement flows.

Chapters

(00:31) Geopolitics and the oil risk premium Iran de-escalation headlines versus military incidents, India’s strategic role, and why crude remains headline-led into the weekend.

(09:57) Gasoline: contango, storage, and curve signals US inventory builds, Europe’s extreme carry, and how contango is supporting the prompt while pushing risk into Q2.

(20:16) Crude: India buying, Russian supply, and Middle East barrels Replacement economics, Saudi OSP expectations, Lunar New Year liquidity, and why AG grades are best positioned near term.

(28:23) Trade box: AG differentials bull case vs bear case Why spot diffs could firm, what caps the upside, and how China stockbuilding complicates the outlook.

(30:30) Fuel oil and middle distillates quickfire Venezuela’s impact on heavy molecules, Russian HSSA outlets, diesel arbs, and freight steering flows into Europe.