I sat down with two economists in China, Matthew Klein, who co-wrote the book on why trade wars are really class wars, and Ning Zhu, the professor who predicted China's housing collapse years before it happened and asked them everything I've never had answers to: what actually happens if trade surpluses and deficits continue for decades, why China consumes so much less of what it produces than India does, why the world keeps parking trillions in American debt, and whether de-dollarization is a real shift or just a story we like telling ourselves. Ning made the case that prolonged imbalances have historically been settled by war, Matthew argued that Korea's most traumatic financial moment not its miracle is what turned it into a surplus nation, and both agreed on the one thing every real estate developer in India refuses to believe: land prices do fall, and the moment everyone's convinced they can't is exactly when they do.

Timestamp

00:00 Introduction

06:29 Why trade surpluses and deficits can persist for decades

11:42 What actually signals a healthy economy, and Korea's shift from deficits to surpluses

17:46 Whether tariffs can correct an undervalued currency

23:12 Why the world keeps funding American debt so cheaply

29:49 Where American long-term yields go from here

35:36 Whether dedollarisation is actually happening

41:35 Why unsustainable arrangements outlast the arguments against them

46:37 How China's state guaranteed its housing bubble

52:25 Building an economy from scratch: efficiency against fairness

Zhu Ning- Deputy Dean and Professor of Finance, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance

Matthew C. Klein-Founder, The Overshoot | Co-author, Trade Wars Are Class Wars

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthewcklein/
• Footage Courtesy: World Economic Forum (WEF) CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
• Source: https://www.weforum.org/videos/amnc26_summer_davos_highlights/

#Nikhilkamath-Co-founder of Zerodha and Gruhas

Host of 'WTF is' & 'People By WTF' Podcast

• Twitter: https://x.com/nikhilkamathcio/
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I went to China and sat down with two economists — Matthew Klein, who co-wrote the book on why trade wars happen, and Ning Zhu, the professor who predicted China's housing crash before it happened — and asked them the questions everyone's asking right now: how is China's economy actually doing, is there an unsaid understanding that China keeps buying American treasuries, and are tariffs ever really an answer? Full episode drops soon.

Zhu Ning — Deputy Dean and Professor of Finance, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance

Matthew C. Klein — Founder, The Overshoot | Co-author, Trade Wars Are Class Wars

• LinkedIn: Matthew C. Klein on LinkedIn

Footage Courtesy: World Economic Forum (WEF) — CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

• Source: World Economic Forum — Summer Davos Highlights

#nikhilkamath — Co-founder of Zerodha and Gruhas

Host of WTF is & People By WTF Podcast

• Twitter/X: Nikhil Kamath on X
• Instagram: Nikhil Kamath on Instagram
• LinkedIn: Nikhil Kamath on LinkedIn
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Watch ‘WTF is’ Podcast on Spotify: Listen on Spotify

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#WTFiswithnikhilkamath #PeopleByWTF #WTFOnline

I sat down with Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree and the man who has been writing the memos every serious investor on earth opens first for over thirty years, and what was supposed to be a conversation about debt and cycles became a conversation about how anyone gets above-average at anything in a world where everyone smart is already trying. We covered why he picked bonds over stocks for an entire career and got rich doing the opposite of what everyone wanted to do, why the S&P returns 10% a year but almost never between 8 and 12, why he changed his mind on AI after a single conversation with Claude, what AI can't do that great investors still can, why he thinks India's biggest export business sits in the crosshairs of AI, and where the $10 bill nobody has picked up is hiding right now.

00:00 Introduction

02:05 From Queens to Wharton beginnings

08:10 Mujo and independence of events

15:17 Why cycles exist in markets

22:09 Pandemic, recessions, and recovery age

28:38 Where we are today

36:08 Drifting versus seeing the river

42:57 Oak Tree and accidental entrepreneurship

49:45 Why bonds over equities

57:14 Distressed bonds and excess returns

1:05:36 Beginning a new career today

1:12:42 Active management versus indexation

1:20:08 Learning from Andrew, second level thinking

1:27:25 How to become contrarian and better

1:34:28 Learning from history, final advice

#Nikhil Kamath Co-founder of Zerodha and Gruhas

Host of 'WTF is' & 'People By WTF' Podcast

• Twitter: https://x.com/nikhilkamathcio/
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#HowardMarks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/howardmarksbook/
• Twitter: https://x.com/HowardMarksBook

Watch 'WTF is' Podcast on Spotify

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#WTFiswithnikhilkamath #PeopleByWTF #WTFOnline