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The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

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The Signal and the Noise

Written by: Nate Silver
Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
Free with 30-day trial

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Buy Now for ₹832.06

Buy Now for ₹832.06

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling

One of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year

“Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book Review

Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability—as well as a healthy dose of humility.

With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. Economics Elections & Political Process Forecasting & Strategic Planning Management & Leadership Political Campaigns & Elections Politics & Government
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God does not tell us about future. But we have been trying to predict for ages. With computer and data available, forecasting is still very difficult. The book deals interestingly on various aspects of useful data and useless one. It is interesting and engrossing. Worth reading.

Knowledgable but noisy

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everyone should read the book. treatment goes into many areas and may help make better decisions

wonderful book

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struggle to finish and not at all useful in day to day life. too much details and not very useful example.
dont like to leave such comments on a book but I couldn't finish it.

too much details and practically useless

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