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Will chocolate prices finally come down?

Sam Hart and Jackson Woods unpack the big question facing confectionery right now: with cocoa prices falling sharply, are shoppers about to see cheaper chocolate on shelves? The answer is more complicated than it seems.

From commodity buying cycles and retailer negotiations to promotions, shrinkflation, and the psychology of indulgence during difficult economic periods, the team explores why falling input costs don’t automatically translate into lower shelf prices.

Using real-world case studies from butter, coffee, and sugar confectionery, they break down:

• Why manufacturers may resist deflation
• How promotions could become the new battleground
• The role of shopper behaviour and “treat culture”
• What history tells us about inflation, substitution, and recovery
• Why Christmas tubs could be one of the first signs of change

Plus, a look ahead at how enhanced shopper panel data will help brands better understand impulsive purchasing and convenience channel trends in the months ahead.

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Watch podcast on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ak2by4amTbg

Launches create activity. Routines decide whether it lasts.

In the third article of our Innovation Advantage series, we examine how advantage is protected when markets tighten and substitution rises.

We look at where routine stability begins to weaken: price expectations, discount dependence, product experience, and the quiet shift toward simpler substitutes.

For innovation leaders, revenue managers and brand teams, the challenge is clear: how do you ensure a launch keeps its place in routine once the launch moment fades?

Speak to and expert and find out more: Creating the innovation advantage - Worldpanel by Numerator

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Watch podcast on YouTube: The innovation advantage: How advantage can drift

Incrementality ranges from -40% to +40% — even when share grows. Share gain doesn’t equal advantage.

In episode 2 of our innovation series we discuss:

· Why 50–80% price premiums can hold — if designed properly

· How 15–25% smaller packs shape trial without eroding value

· Why promotions should drive discovery, not dependency

· The channel choices that reinforce premium positioning

Incrementality isn’t luck. It’s architecture. When pack, price, promotion and channel are designed as behaviour shapers, not commercial afterthoughts, innovation performs very differently.

Speak to and expert and find out more: Creating the innovation advantage - Worldpanel by Numerator

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