Thanks for joining me today, let's look at a few markets heading into Mother’s Day weekend. Let's start as usual with beef.

We’ve had a couple weeks of relatively stable pricing, and I think we’ve got another week, maybe two before summer fun and demand start pushing prices up. Beef harvest last week was 534K head, up a few from the 529K the week prior. That keeps inventories very tight. Middle meats, those Ribeyes, strip loins, and tenderloins are finding modest support moving minimally higher. Rounds and chucks are holding fairly steady. I think as we see hamburger move higher, makes sense to move chucks and rounds into the grinder to support ground beef demand. Thin meats were on a rocket heading into May. They aren’t giving back any of those recent gains, but they are holding fairly steady for now. I do think this is a buying opportunity as I do think this market will turn higher over the next few weeks.

Chicken production continues pace ahead of last year by about 2%. Demand is holding up though we do see a small decline in boneless skinless random breasts, tenders and party wings are holding steady for the week. I do think the next move for chicken prices will push higher but as with beef, I think we’ll take a breather for a week or so. On Avian Flu, a very good week, one new case reported affecting 110 birds. We had a tough start to spring but hopefully this is a sign of a calmer end of spring into summer.

Soy continues to demand the attention in grain pushing higher every day. When gas is high as we are currently seeing, soy demand for biofuels gets serious, corn continues to be steady closing at $4.72 up from last week $4.71, so not much going on in corn. Wheat is getting international interest and pushing up a bit.

Pork bellies are down again this week, todays close $125, down from last week $135. I do think we will see a summer run on bellies but looks like we have some buying opportunities before that happens. The rest of the pork complex is seeing increases, butts and ribs moving up for the week, while loins continue to be a great value.

The CME close on Thursday shows a well-balanced market, butter is down 5, barrel has not change and block is down 1. We can always use a bit of good news on the CME.

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Try to say "Avian Flu Front" five times fast, go ahead, give it a whirl.

The beef market is continuing the market correction started last week. Middle meats were leading this market higher, and now they are leading this market lower. Ribeyes, Tenderloins, Strip Loins, all lower for the week. Rounds and Chucks coming off as well. The one area the reduced harvest numbers are really pushing on is thin meats, briskets, flanks, sirloin flap, and skirt steak all steadily moving higher each week. I expect we will see this continue higher right into Cinco de Mayo. Mother’s Day is right after, so we do have some events coming to move some beef. I’d still stay ahead of my needs, cattle harvest was only 512K last week, down from 533K the week before so while prices may be declining, inventories continue to be tight.

Chicken demand remains strong and production is continuing to outpace last year running about 2% up for the year. Recently boneless skinless randoms and tenders have been on a weekly move higher. It looks like randoms will take a little breather and actually decline a few pennies, tenders and wings will continue higher for next week. Overall I still see this market continuing higher at least the next few weeks. On the Avian flu front, another relatively good week, 3 new cases affecting 251K birds. Heat is not this virus’s friend, so hopefully as the weather warms the virus will be less active.

War can’t move the corn market, this week’s close $4.55/bushel, last week’s close $4.53. New crop is coming and we still have plenty of last year’s crop and I believe still some 2024 crop; there is lots of corn available. Soy: now soy moved higher a few weeks ago, not letting go those recent gains and demand for biofuel is keeping soybeans moving. Wheat is seeing effects of internation unrest, market is up $.13bushel from last week. Nothing to panic but I think we will see modest increases in flour pricing.

I started seeing the pork belly market move lower this week, then it just dropped, today’s close $136 down from last week’s $149. This market reset should move bacon prices down. The rest of the pork complex is moving by pennies, butts, loins, ribs, all a good value with good availability.

A split market this week in dairy, thru Thursday’s close the CME for butter is up 2, while the barrel is down 1 and block down 3. Production numbers say this should be a stable market at least for the next few weeks.

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We are well into spring now and some things are shaking in the beef market. First good news, though the strike is not settled, the JBS workers are returning to work while negotiations continue. Good news, beef harvest increased to 533K still running about 10% behind last year, supplies remain very tight. Good news, market prices seem to be pushing back a bit, maybe this is moving higher too quickly? I still think this bull market will continue to move higher into spring, but I do think we’ve got a little breather for a week or so. Rounds and chucks are both down a bit this week, more good news. Middle meats are steady to slightly higher this week, but thin meats, those flanks, skirt, sirloin flat meat, all still expensive and moving higher. Typically, thin meats will peak around Cinco de Mayo, which is not that far way.

POULTRY: Chicken production continues to outpace last year, up 2% so far this year. Hatch rate is improving 79.3% - chicken is in full production. Demand is right there with it, chicken, still a great value in protein, but pricing is moving higher. Boneless skinless randoms breasts, tenders, party wings, all moving higher. I think we’ll see this market move higher the next few weeks.

On Avian flu, a relatively good week with 3 new cases affecting 111K birds. As spring migration tapers off let's hope the virus does too.

GRAINS : Corn barely moved from $4.54 to $4.53 this week. Wheat about the same, soy is holding onto all their recent gains. With the cost of fuel moving higher, demand for biofuels will increase, soy and canola continue to inch up on daily markets.

PORK: Last week bellies closed at $149, same this week, steady at $149. I’m thinking we will continue in this $150 market for a few more weeks, next move should be higher, but I’m going to push that out a few weeks. The rest of the pork complex is well supplied and priced well. Butts inch up a penny, loins and ribs steady.

DAIRY Dairy markets holding pretty steady for the week, Thru Thursday’s CME close block is down 2, barrel is steady, no change, and butter down 4. Spring production is good and availability is very good.

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Beef production continues to keep inventories tight and prices pushing higher. Beef harvest last week was 520K head, up a bit from the 503K the week prior but still not enough to fill the demand. Middle meats, those strips loins, tenderloins and ribeyes continue to push higher every week. Thin meats, think flank, skirt, sirloin flap, all are in tight supply and pushing higher every week. Grinds held steady for the next week but I do think we will see grinds pushing higher with all the other cuts. This is a buy now, waiting will cost you money market. And I’m adding keep well ahead of your needs, this is going to be an interesting summer for beef.

POULTRY Chicken continues to roll on, production continues about 2% over last year and demand is taking all that production. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders moving up again next week and this seems to be a pattern we could see for a few weeks. Wings holding steady after last week’s move higher. Even with the recent increases chicken remains the choice for protein value.

On Avian flu, a relatively good week with 9 new cases affecting 98K birds.

GRAINS – Even war cant move the cost of corn. Corn closed at $4.59 just up from $4.58 last week. Preliminary estimates for this years crop down 5 million acres from last year, while soy is planning more acreage. The soy rally is pushing up again after a couple weeks stall. Wheat is moving higher mostly on international unrest.

PORK Pork bellies are hanging right around that $150 mark, today’s close $149. We could see this move higher but I think it will be later in spring or early summer. The rest of the pork complex is well supplied and pricing is good.

DAIRY Another quiet week on the CME, which will be closed on Good Friday so this is the week’s close. Butter dropped 3, barrel is up 1, and block had no change.

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Beef demand is not backing down, consumer demand for protein continues to increase even as our beef industry continues to contract. No doubt aided by the JBS strike, beef production was only 508K head last week and I expect we will see similar numbers for this week. The market is tight, there is just not that much beef coming to market. Prices are moving higher pretty much across the board. Middle meats, those strips, ribeyes and tenderloins continue to lead this market higher. Thin meats, skirt, flank, sirloin flap, all tight and moving higher, setting up a very expensive Cinco de Mayo. I will continue to recommend buying as soon as feasible, waiting in this market will cost you money, and with the tight inventory,

I’d keep as far ahead on needs as possible. I think I say this every year but the summer grilling season will be expensive.

POULTRY Chicken demand continues strong as well as production which continues about 2% over last year. Even with strong supply, prices are moving higher. Wings come out of their funk moving up a few pennies while boneless skinless random breasts and clipped tenders are moving up every day. I do expect chicken to continue moving higher over the next few weeks.

On the avian flu front, another 15 new cases affecting 130K birds, this week, mostly ducks.

GRAINS – the recent run up on soy and canola has hit a pause, week two holding onto recent gains, but not advancing further. There is still plenty of inventory to meet demand. Corn and wheat continue to tread in the same narrow trading band, we have plenty of grains to move.

PORK Pork bellies down a dollar from last week to $152, I still expect we could see $200 bellies this summer. Pork production is good, well supplied. Loins are moving higher by a few cents, butts and ribs holding steady.

DAIRY Dairy markets had a fairly quiet week, butter is steady, block is up 3 and barrel is up 2. I do think we have more upside to this market.

OK with that I’m done, thanks for listening, we’ll do agai

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BEEF: I've been saying for a few weeks now it would not be a bad idea to keep well ahead of your needs. I’m doubling down on this as the reduced production we’ve seen this year is impacting product availability and pricing. Inventories will be tighter still with reduced production and increasing demand. Last week’s harvest was 521k head, running a full 10% behind last year’s reduced production. Markets are responding hard to this tight inventory, everything, I mean everything is moving higher. Led by middle meats, ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins, but all cuts are seeing increases. I’ve seen a couple analysts have the opinion this surge will scare off consumers and turn back down. I hope they are right and I’m wrong, but right now all I see in increases and strong demand. I’d buy now, waiting will cost you money.

Chicken will be the alternate protein of choice for consumers moving from higher priced beef. Wings are lower a third week, I don’t see this lasting much longer while boneless skinless randoms and tenders are moving higher. I do expect chicken increases to continue. Proudction is running about 2% ahead of last year and demand is keeping the product moving.

On the Avian Flu front, another difficult week, 20 new cases reported affect 3.5 million birds, mostly egg layers. The northern migration is in full swing now, I do hope we get some relief soon

Soy and canola have another strong week moving higher. Its been so long since we’ve seen a bull market in soy oil but demand and moving product to biofuels has spurred this market higher. Not so for corn and wheat continuing to trade sideways.

Pork bellies leveled off at $153 same as last week. Bacon prices will be moving up but hopefully we get a few weeks breather. Loins, butts, ribs, all still a good value. Pork continues to be a great protein value.

The dairy market went on a tear last week, giving back almost all the gains this week. As of Thursday’s CME close, butter is down 16, barrel and block are both down 2. We’ll see what next week brings.

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Beef production continues restrained to keep prices up and packer losses as small as possible. 516K head produced last week, same as the previous week. Heading into spring this is keeping the beef supply tight and prices supported. We have the smallest beef herd since 1951 when there were half as many people in the country. That is not turning around anytime soon. Regarding current market prices, everything is going up. Ribeyes and strip loins will be leading prices higher for the next few weeks. Grind demand is strong and prices moving up as well. Chuck had a nice few weeks of declines, that is over, rounds never lost support and continue to move higher. I do think middle meats and thin meats, flanks, skirts, sirloin flap, will all be tight and expensive, already looking at Cinco de Mayo. We are at the start of a steady move higher, I’d advise buy sooner, rather than later, waiting will cost you money. Keep well ahead of your needs, this market is going to be expensive and tight.

Poultry production continues to run about 2% ahead of last year. Demand is good, production is strong, pricing is holding up, though wings declined a second week in a row. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders… holding steady. It’s a good time to menu chicken. On the Avian flu front, its ugly. 23 new cases reported in the last week affecting 4.8Millioin birds, 4 million of those birds were egg layers. I’m not feeling good about spring migration.

Soy markets continue to climb. Its been so long since we’ve seen a bull market in soy. Soy oil and canola oil, both moving higher with good export demand and higher biofuel usage. We may see this plateau in the next couple weeks, but right now, soy is on a tear. Corn and wheat… not so much . Still trading sideways and I don’t see that changing.

Pork bellies continue to march higher, today’s close $153 up from last week $148. I don’t think we are done by any stretch. Bacon will be going up. Contrary to rest of the pork complex, plenty of inventory, prices are good. Yes, menu pork.

Butter took a huge run up this week. Thru Thursday’s close on the CME butter is up 24! That’s a big move. Barrel and block both up 3 but butter is the big mover. We’ll see if the markets hold these recent gains, but for now all signs point to a higher dairy costs.

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Beef is tight. Bellies are climbing. Birds are under watch. The seasonal shift may bring more than warmer weather.

BEEF: Production is down 10% YTD, with last week at just 516K head. The smallest herd in 75 years keeps supply tight as spring demand builds. Strips and ribeyes look ready to lead a March run – and thin meats may feel it first.

POULTRY: Production is up 2%, but hatch rates under 79% raise questions. Wings dip while breasts hold steady. Thirteen new avian flu cases hit 550K birds – just as migration ramps up.

GRAINS: Soy keeps climbing on export deals and biofuel demand. Corn and wheat stay stuck. Three weeks into the rally, and now we see if it has legs.

PORK: Bellies jumped to $146, nearing $150 faster than expected. Bacon will follow, and elevated pricing could stick into summer. The rest of pork remains a value, but for how long?

DAIRY: Barrel up 5. Block up 6. Butter up 7. Dairy is clearly moving higher, and it doesn’t look finished yet.

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