Thinking in Bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Failed to add items
Add to cart failed.
Add to wishlist failed.
Remove from wishlist failed.
Follow podcast failed
Unfollow podcast failed
New to Audible Prime Member exclusive: 2 credits with free trial
Buy Now for ₹879.00
-
Narrated by:
-
Annie Duke
-
Written by:
-
Annie Duke
About this listen
“A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times
“Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
People who bought this also bought...
-
How to Decide
- Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
- Written by: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall42
-
Performance34
-
Story34
Through a blend of compelling exercises and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're...
-
-
Must read book
- By Mehul on 30-01-21
-
Superforecasting
- The Art and Science of Prediction
- Written by: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
- Narrated by: Joel Richards
- Length: 9 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall37
-
Performance27
-
Story26
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.
-
-
good book for one time listening
- By Disha maini on 17-12-22
-
The Status Game: On Social Position and How We Use It
- On Social Position and How We Use It
- Written by: Will Storr
- Length: 11 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
-
Overall0
-
Performance0
-
Story0
‘Will Storr is one of our best journalists of ideas … The Status Game might be his best yet’ James Marriott, Books of the Year, The Times What drives our political and moral beliefs? What makes us like some things and dislike others? What shapes how we behave, and misbehave, in groups?...
-
The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- Written by: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall453
-
Performance377
-
Story371
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
-
-
a good summary of other books
- By RM on 27-05-19
-
Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
- Written by: Stan Weinstein
- Narrated by: Scott R. Pollak
- Length: 8 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall62
-
Performance45
-
Story45
Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets reveals his successful methods for timing investments to produce consistently profitable results. Originally published in 1988, this timeless classic continues to offer clear and actionable advice to contemporary investors.
-
-
True Market book
- By Pradip More on 11-10-21
-
The All Weather Trader
- Mr. Serenity’s Thoughts on Trading Come Rain or Shine
- Written by: Tom Basso
- Narrated by: William DeMeritt
- Length: 4 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall0
-
Performance0
-
Story0
Risk. It can be kryptonite for investors, no matter your investment amount or level of experience. But, like many obstacles to success, risk is a challenge only overcome by facing it head-on. What if you could attack risk, rather than hide from it? What if there were even a way to leverage it for profit? The first step in investment success is adjusting how you think about risk. In The All Weather Trader, Trendstat Capital founder and “Mr. Serenity” Tom Basso reveals his philosophy for learning to embrace risk and use it to benefit your investments.
-
How to Decide
- Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
- Written by: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall42
-
Performance34
-
Story34
Through a blend of compelling exercises and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're...
-
-
Must read book
- By Mehul on 30-01-21
-
Superforecasting
- The Art and Science of Prediction
- Written by: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
- Narrated by: Joel Richards
- Length: 9 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall37
-
Performance27
-
Story26
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.
-
-
good book for one time listening
- By Disha maini on 17-12-22
-
The Status Game: On Social Position and How We Use It
- On Social Position and How We Use It
- Written by: Will Storr
- Length: 11 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
-
Overall0
-
Performance0
-
Story0
‘Will Storr is one of our best journalists of ideas … The Status Game might be his best yet’ James Marriott, Books of the Year, The Times What drives our political and moral beliefs? What makes us like some things and dislike others? What shapes how we behave, and misbehave, in groups?...
-
The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- Written by: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall453
-
Performance377
-
Story371
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
-
-
a good summary of other books
- By RM on 27-05-19
-
Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
- Written by: Stan Weinstein
- Narrated by: Scott R. Pollak
- Length: 8 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall62
-
Performance45
-
Story45
Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets reveals his successful methods for timing investments to produce consistently profitable results. Originally published in 1988, this timeless classic continues to offer clear and actionable advice to contemporary investors.
-
-
True Market book
- By Pradip More on 11-10-21
-
The All Weather Trader
- Mr. Serenity’s Thoughts on Trading Come Rain or Shine
- Written by: Tom Basso
- Narrated by: William DeMeritt
- Length: 4 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall0
-
Performance0
-
Story0
Risk. It can be kryptonite for investors, no matter your investment amount or level of experience. But, like many obstacles to success, risk is a challenge only overcome by facing it head-on. What if you could attack risk, rather than hide from it? What if there were even a way to leverage it for profit? The first step in investment success is adjusting how you think about risk. In The All Weather Trader, Trendstat Capital founder and “Mr. Serenity” Tom Basso reveals his philosophy for learning to embrace risk and use it to benefit your investments.
-
A Whole New Mind
- Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future
- Written by: Daniel H. Pink
- Narrated by: Daniel H. Pink
- Length: 6 hrs and 15 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall19
-
Performance14
-
Story14
Lawyers. Accountants. Software Engineers. That what Mom and Dad encouraged us to become. They were wrong. Gone is the age of "left-brain" dominance. The future belongs to a different kind of person with a different kind of mind: designers, inventors, teachers, storytellers - creative and emphatic "right-brain" thinkers whose abilities mark the fault line between who gets ahead and who doesn't.
-
-
Differentiate between left brain and right brain activities
- By Riya on 02-05-23
-
Mastering the Mental Game of Trading
- Harnessing the Power of the Inner Self to Fuel Trading Outperformance
- Written by: Steven Goldstein
- Narrated by: Ian Pringle
- Length: 7 hrs and 57 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall7
-
Performance7
-
Story7
Goldstein introduces his powerful model, the Performance Process Cycle, which teaches traders how to overcome their emotions and biases, improve self-awareness, and make sense of how they are impacted by their interactions with markets and uncertainty. By applying this model, traders can develop an unparalleled level of calm and objectivity, enabling them to navigate the treacherous terrain of financial markets with ease.
-
-
Far Inspiring and better than most trading books
- By Genesis on 21-08-24
-
Thinking in Systems
- A Primer
- Written by: Donella H. Meadows
- Narrated by: Tia Rider Sorensen
- Length: 6 hrs and 26 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall89
-
Performance70
-
Story68
In the years following her role as the lead author of the international best seller, Limits to Growth - the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet - Donella Meadows remained a pioneer of environmental and social analysis until her untimely death in 2001. Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem-solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global. Edited by the Sustainability Institute's Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world....
-
-
No real insights
- By Deepak on 28-04-21
-
Confessions of Stock Market Wizards
- Doyens of Indian Investing on Their Biggest Learnings
- Written by: Kalpan Mitra, Safir Anand
- Narrated by: Kalpan Mitra
- Length: 13 hrs and 25 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall3
-
Performance3
-
Story3
If there's one place that is never devoid of excitement, it's the stock market. It is common to hear investors brag about the multibaggers they identified and the millions they earned with their sharp sense of investing, but ask them about their investing missteps and chances are they'll quickly...
-
The Most Important Thing
- Uncommon Sense for The Thoughtful Investor
- Written by: Howard Marks
- Narrated by: John FitzGibbon
- Length: 7 hrs and 9 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall195
-
Performance148
-
Story148
Howard Marks, the chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, is renowned for his insightful assessments of market opportunity and risk. After four decades spent ascending to the top of the investment management profession, he is today sought out by the world's leading value investors, and his client memos brim with insightful commentary and a time-tested, fundamental philosophy. The Most Important Thing explains the keys to successful investment and the pitfalls that can destroy capital or ruin a career.
-
-
country related book
- By Rashesh shah on 20-01-23
-
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
- The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger
- Written by: Charles T. Munger
- Narrated by: Grover Gardener
- Length: 13 hrs and 9 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall141
-
Performance123
-
Story123
"Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up," Charles T. Munger advises in Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Originally published in 2005, this compendium of 11 talks, delivered by the legendary Berkshire Hathaway vice-chairman between 1986 and 2007, has become a touchstone for a generation of investors and entrepreneurs seeking to absorb the enduring wit and wisdom of one of the great minds of the 20th and 21st centuries.
-
-
Great book.
- By Neeraj on 10-02-24
-
Flow
- The Psychology of Optimal Experience
- Written by: Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi
- Narrated by: Donald Corren
- Length: 11 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall8
-
Performance8
-
Story8
Psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi's famous investigations of "optimal experience" have revealed that what makes an experience genuinely satisfying is a state of consciousness called flow. During flow, people typically experience deep enjoyment, creativity, and a total involvement with life. In this new edition of his groundbreaking classic work, Csikszentmihalyi demonstrates the ways this positive state can be controlled, not just left to chance.
-
Good Strategy/Bad Strategy
- The Difference and Why It Matters
- Written by: Richard Rumelt
- Narrated by: Sean Runnette
- Length: 11 hrs and 49 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall93
-
Performance79
-
Story79
Good Strategy/Bad Strategy clarifies the muddled thinking underlying too many strategies and provides a clear way to create and implement a powerful action-oriented strategy for the real world. Developing and implementing a strategy is the central task of a leader. A good strategy is a...
-
-
The best book on strategy
- By dhanveer nadipalli on 17-06-25
-
Trade Mindfully
- Achieve Your Optimum Trading Performance with Mindfulness and Cutting-Edge Psychology
- Written by: Gary Dayton
- Narrated by: Julian Elfer
- Length: 11 hrs and 54 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall1
-
Performance1
-
Story1
Successful traders need to be well-versed and skilled in a wide range of business and economic areas. But now, in addition to effective trading strategies and sound money management techniques, traders need to possess the know-how to handle the mental and emotional challenges of working in a highly volatile environment. Trade Mindfully is a unique resource that applies cutting-edge psychological techniques to trading skills, allowing readers to improve their mental outlooks and maximize the potential of their trading strategies.
-
What I Learned About Investing from Darwin
- Written by: Pulak Prasad
- Narrated by: Shawn K. Jain
- Length: 12 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall52
-
Performance43
-
Story43
The investment profession is in a state of crisis. The vast majority of equity fund managers are unable to beat the market over the long term, which has led to massive outflows from active funds to passive funds. Where should investors turn in search of a new approach? Pulak Prasad offers a philosophy of patient long-term investing based on an unexpected source: evolutionary biology. He draws key lessons from core Darwinian concepts, mixing vivid examples from the natural world with compelling stories of good and bad investing decisions—including his own.
-
-
long term investment philosophy
- By Rad on 12-10-25
-
The Joys Of Compounding
- The Passionate Pursuit of Lifelong Learning
- Written by: Gautam Baid, P. Mathai Abraham
- Narrated by: P. Mathai Abraham
- Length: 17 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall3
-
Performance2
-
Story2
Value investing is not just a system for success in the market. It is also an intellectual toolkit for achieving a deeper understanding of the world. In The Joys of Compounding, the value investor Gautam Baid builds a holistic approach to value investing and philosophy from his wide-ranging...
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- Written by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 10 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall362
-
Performance295
-
Story294
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
Insightful
- By Amazon Customer on 02-11-19
Critic Reviews
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world." –Marc Andreessen
“Outstanding.” –Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work." –Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
"An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." –Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting
"Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." –Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind
"The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." –Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing
"Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." –Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better
"Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." –Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception
"A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." –Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly
“A highly-readable balance between memorable, real-world analogies and hardcore behavioral science studies... The book is packed with insights.” –John Greathouse, Forbes
good book
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
Overall covers some good concepts and would be a good read, if you have not read books like Power of Habit or Thinking fast and Slow and few other.
A bit underwhelming
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
hardcopy
decision making
must relisten
hardcopy
decision making
thinking process
stock market
excelle book
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
Good book
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
A decision makers guide book in uncertainty
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.